CRISIS

There is no religious, nationalist, or political justification for killing of innocents but the history of the world shows we are all killers.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Conquering Crises (Ten Lessons to Learn Before You Need Them)

By: Admiral William H. McRaven

Narrated By:  Willaim H. McRaven

William H. McRaven (Author, retired four-star admiral in the U.S. Navy, ninth commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command from 2011 to 2014, commanded special operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.)

Wisdom does not always come with experience or age. Though born in 1955, William McRaven spent 40 years as a special operations officer in the U.S. Navy. He retired from military service and became chancellor of the University of Texas System from 2015-2018. Now, as a writer, McRaven offers some insightful advice to those who manage others in response to crises. He offers his personal, corporate, and institutional experience as a crises’ manager.

Though McRaven’s experience comes from a military system of command, he offers a listen, learn, and plan approach to getting things done through others.

When faced with a reported crisis, he notes the first information one receives is usually inaccurate and misleading. He offers numerous examples like Pearl Harbor in 1941, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Covid-19 in the 21st century. The first reports of those crises were misleading and were found to be much more consequential and damaging than originally reported. The first step when faced with a crisis is to be sure of the facts. McRaven generally discounts first reports. He suggests one should confirm details from personal observation (if possible or practicable). If one cannot investigate facts of a crises personally, one must confirm details from other sources that are at, subject to, or near the crisis. The point is not to act on first reports but to seek more information.

McRaven receives a phone call in the middle of the night about a mistaken Taliban sympathizer carrying a weapon who is shot and killed by an American soldier during America’s intervention in Afghanistan.

It was found he was not a sympathizer but a cousin of the President of Afghanistan. McRaven calls General Petraeus in the middle of the night to report the incident. Petraeus thanks McRaven for contacting him immediately rather than waiting until the morning. Both recognize the urgency of the crises. They discuss details of what happened and plan a response. McRaven is ordered to contact the President of Afghanistan immediately to explain what happened and offer American support for the family of the murdered cousin. McRaven’s point is know the facts of a crises, create a plan to address what is known, react as quickly as the correct facts are known, plan a response agreed upon by those in authority, and act (as soon as possible) according to plan.

Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan.

A more complicated crisis noted by McRaven is also in Afghanistan. America’s ambassador to Afghanistan meets with McRaven to tell him the special forces reporting to him in Afghanistan are alienating local Afghan citizens with their military actions against the Taliban. The ambassador tells McRaven his operations are alienating Afghani citizens to the point of losing America’s war against the Taliban. The meeting becomes heated because McRaven believes his command is doing a great job of pacifying Taliban attacks on local citizens. Rather than acting like an ostrich with its head in the sand, McRaven calls for a meeting of colonels in the Afghanistan theater to investigate the Ambassador’s accusation. The team McRaven assembles finds the Ambassador’s concerns are justified. Though peaceful coexistence appeared to be improved with McRaven’s special forces’ actions, the alienation of Afghani’s was growing. As has been written by other authors, America’s special forces often acted based on one Afghani family’s personal anger at another family rather than for any concern about Taliban activity.

The group of colonels assembled by McRaven developed a plan to more judiciously act on alleged Taliban activity from Afghan informants.

Of course, America’s ignominious departure from Afghanistan, implies McRaven’s response was too little and too late. This is not to argue that McRaven’s response was wrong but only that the plan did not stop Taliban resurgence. The valid point McRaven is making is that one should systematically address a crisis, create a plan once the facts are known, and execute the plan. Obviously, not all crises are successfully resolved. In the case of America’s intervention in Afghanistan, McRaven’s plan may not have been right for the facts that were gathered, or the crises was just too culturally complex for a successfully executed response.

McRaven comes across as a highly competent leader and manager in a crises.

Where one may have reservations about any leader’s role in a crisis is whether they agree on the facts. McRaven believes it is right to assassinate a proven terrorist who has killed innocent people. That kind of decision goes beyond the principles of McRaven’s book about response to crises. “Judge not, lest ye be judged” is alleged to have been said by Jesus in his Sermon on the Mount.

McRaven believes assassination is justified.

In Ukraine and Gaza, innocents are being killed every day. There is no religious, nationalist, or political justification for killing of innocents but the history of the world shows we are all killers. In a crisis, you would want someone like McRaven to be the “beauty on duty”, but one must ask oneself if assassination is ever justified.

MUSK

Musk, like all human beings, is imperfect. His association with a President who feels money is more important than humanity only feeds Musk’s ineptitude as a manager of people.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Hubris Maximus  (The Shattering of Elon Musk)

By: Faiz Siddiqui

Narrated By:  André Santana

Faiz Siddiqui (Author, technology reporter for The Washington Post)

Faiz Siddiqui exposes the character of Elon Musk as a brilliant entrepreneur with an outsized pride in his ability that reflects an arrogance that diminishes his genius. Musk’s success with Tesla and SpaceX accomplishments are equal, and in some ways exceed, the business successes of John D. Rockefeller and Steve Jobs. In wealth, Musk exceeds Rockefeller and in inventiveness, he competes with Steve Jobs.

As brilliant as Musk shows himself to be, his fragile ego diminishes his genius.

Siddiqui reveals how petty Musk can be while balancing that pettiness with his contribution to creative ideas that will live far beyond his mortal life. Musk’s development of space travel and communication satellites for the world with a non-governmental, free enterprise operation is a tribute to the power of capitalism. His next immense contribution, though controversial and a work in progress, will be self-driving transportation.

Elon Musk’s Successful Return of Rockets Launched into Space.

Siddiqui’s picture of Musk’s flawed personality is somewhat balanced by the image of a person driven to succeed. However, that drive is not something that naturally translates to organizational performance. Musk is not a developer of people and should not be in charge of an organization’s management. Like Apple employees that kept some of their work undisclosed to Steve Jobs when the mobile phone was being considered, Musk needs to leave management of employees to others. People management is a skill set that Musk does not have as was made quite clear with his acquisition of Twitter and his work with DOGE. DOGE feeds Musk’s managerial weaknesses with President Trump’s mistaken belief that cost of government is more important than effectiveness. DOGE is a growing tragedy of American governance.

Musk is right about the value of self-driving vehicles, but he is trying to produce the wrong product to prove his belief.

Self-driving vehicles will reduce traffic accidents, injuries, and death but the product to achieve that goal is what Musk should be working on. The game of Go is estimated to have 10 to the 172nd power of possible positions. Self-driving cars probably have a similar astronomical number of possible causes of accidents.

Musk, or someone with his creative genius, needs to create a product that can be sold to all vehicle manufacturers.

This newly invented product would use AI to learn, reinforce understanding of vehicular movements, accidents, and incidents. That accumulated information would allow creative play in the same way GO became an unbeatable game for human beings playing against a programed computer. Musk is putting the cart before the horse by building cars and then making them safe, self-driving vehicles. The first step is to gather information from as many driven vehicles as possible, collate that information, and use computer power to creatively play with the information. That information, like learning the moves of GO would create self-driving algorithms that would reduce self-driving vehicle’ accidents, injuries, and deaths.

A sad reveal in “Hubris Maximus” is that an American treasure, Elon Musk, is being vilified for the wrong reasons.

Musk’s contribution to the reduction of air pollution has benefited the world. His vision of interstellar travel may be the next step in human expedition, exploration, and habitation of the universe. Earth’s interconnectedness is vitally enhanced by Musk’s satellite system. The universe is humanity’s next frontier.

Musk, like all human beings, is imperfect. His association with a President who feels money is more important than humanity only feeds Musk’s ineptitude as a manager of people.

RIGHT & WRONG

The story of “…Belle Lettres…” inelegantly reminds one of the effects of Trump on America’s reputation.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Belles Lettres Papers (A Novel)

By: Charles Simmons

Narrated By:  Alex Hyde-White

Charles Paul Simmons (1924-2017, Author and former American editor for The New York Times Book Review, graduate of Columbia University in 1948.)

“The Belles Lettres Papers” is a fictional account about the destruction of an American book review company. Written by a person who worked as the editor for the NY Times Book Review gives credibility to its author. One wonders how the nationally famous paper felt about his book. Simmons writes a story of a magazine company that exclusively reviews new books that become literary successes, sometimes bestsellers, or dead or dying dust gatherers.

To this book critic, Simmons certainly seems to know what he is writing about but “The Belles Lettres Papers” falls into a dust gatherer category of books.

Book reading or listening is an educational, sometimes entertaining, experience. There are so many books written that it is impossible to know what to read or listen to without someone’s review of what has been newly or recently published. Of course, there are genres that a reader/listener will choose that influences their book choices. Even when one limits themselves to a genre, there are too many choices that require a way of limiting one’s choice.

Experience reveals “best seller” is not a consistently reliable way of choosing a book, but it is one of the most commonly used methods of selection.

What “…Belles Lettres…” reveals is the potential corruption that can inflate a books placement on a best seller list. Book review publications, like all business enterprises, have owners and employees that have various levels of honesty, capability, and ethical standards. What Simmons shows is how every business owner and employee is subject to the influence of money and power.

The potential weaknesses of humanity play out in every organization that provides service or material to the public.

Simmons shows how a fictional book review company has employees who are corrupted by the power of their positions and the money they make. The fictional company has a male business manager who thinks his female secretary wishes to have sex with him because of natural attraction. Ethically, no employee reporting to a manager they work for should have sexual relations with a direct report. This is particularly egregious in Simmon’s story because of sexual inequality that permeates society. As Lord Acton’s observation about power (power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely), a person who has power over another is always at risk of self-delusion.

Simmons goes on to explain how undercompensating employees can corrupt an organization by incentivizing theft and other ways of undermining a company’s integrity.

Simmons addresses the incentive of owners or those in power of an organization to cut personnel employment to save money at the cost of product quality or service. America is experiencing that today with the actions of the Trump Administration in arbitrarily firing federal employees, regardless of what they do for American citizens.

In a last chapter, Simmons addresses the revisions that can occur in a company that decides on a wholesale turnover in employees.

The integrity of a company’s mission can be sorely challenged. In the case of “…Belle Lettres…” a decision for publication of salacious books replaces the company’s former studied reviews of good writers. The organization loses its reputation as a reviewer of high-quality publications.

Trump’s assessment of immigration.

The story of “…Belle Lettres…” inelegantly reminds one of the effects of Trump on America’s reputation as a supporter of western society by reducing foreign aid, undermining university independence, denying global warming, arbitrarily firing government employees, and expelling American immigrants.

RISK/REWARD

AI is only a tool of human beings and will be misused by some leaders in the same way Atom bombs, starvation, disease, climate, and other maladies have harmed the sentient world. AI is more of an opportunity than threat to society.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

A Brief History of Artificial Intelligence (What It Is, Where We Are, and Where We Are Going)

By: Michael Wooldridge

Narrated By: Glen McCready

Michael Wooldridge (Author, British professor of Computer Science, Senior Research Fellow at Hertford College University of Oxford.)

Wooldridge served as the President of the International Joint Conference in Artificial Intelligence from 2015-17, and President of the European Association for AI from 2014-16. He received a number of A.I. related service awards in his career.

Alan Turing (1912-1954, Mathematician, computer scientist, cryptanalyst, philosopher, and theoretical biologist.)

Wooldridge’s history of A.I. begins with Alan Turing who has the honorific title of “father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence”. Turing is best known for breaking the German Enigma code in WWII with the development of an automatic computing engine. He went on to develop the Turing test that evaluated a machine’s ability to provide answers to questions that exhibited human-like behavior. Sadly, he is equally well known for being a publicly persecuted homosexual who committed suicide in 1954. He was 41 years old at the time of his death.

Wooldridge explains A.I. has had a roller-coaster history of highs and lows with new highs in this century.

Breaking the Enigma code is widely acknowledged as a game changer in WWII. Enigma’s code breaking shortened the war and provided strategic advantage to the Allied powers. However, Wooldridge notes computer utility declined in the 70s and 80s because applications relied on laborious programming rules that introduced biases, ethical concerns, and prediction errors. Expectations of A.I.’s predictability seemed exaggerated.

The idea of a neuronal connection system was thought of in 1943 by Warren McCulloch and Walter L Pitts.

In 1958, Frank Rosenblatt developed “Perception”, a program based on McCulloch and Pitt’s idea that made computers capable of learning. However, this was a cumbersome programming process that failed to give consistent results. After the 80s, machine learning became more usefully predictive with Geoffrey Hinton’s devel0pment of backpropagation, i.e., the use of an algorithm to check on programming errors with corrections that improved A.I. predictions. Hinton went on to develop a neural network in 1986 that worked like the synapse structure of the brain but with much fewer connections. A limited neural network for computers led to a capability for reading text and collating information.

Geoffrey Hinton (the “Godfather of AI” won the 2018 Turing Award.)

Then, in 2006 Hinton developed a Deep Belief Network that led to deep learning with a type of a generative neural network. Neural networks offered more connections that improved computer memory with image recognition, speech processing, and natural language understanding. In the 2000s, Google acquired a deep learning company that could crawl and index the internet. Fact-based decision-making, and the accumulation of data, paved the way for better A.I. utility and predictive capability.

Face recognition capability.

What seems lost in this history is the fact that all of these innovations were created by human cognition and creation.

Many highly educated and inventive people like Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates, Geoffrey Hinton, and Yuval Harari believe the risks of AI are a threat to humanity. Musk calls AI a big existential threat and compares it to summoning a demon. Hawking felt Ai could evolve beyond human control. Gates expressed concern about job displacement that would have long-term negative consequences with ethical implications that would harm society. Hinton believed AI would outthink humans and pose unforeseen risks. Harari believed AI would manipulate human behavior and reshape global power structures and undermine governments.

All fears about AI have some basis for concern.

However, how good a job has society done throughout history without AI? AI is only a tool of human beings and will be misused by some leaders in the same way atom bombs, starvation, disease, climate, and other maladies have harmed the sentient world. AI is more of an opportunity than threat to society.

WAR

The only hope for Ukraine is a change in Russia’s leadership as a result of Putin’s foolish effort to return Russia to its past. It is the same effort and mistake Trump is making in trying to return America to the 20th century.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Evil Hours: A Biography of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

By: David J. Morris

Narrated By: Mike Chamberlain

David J. Morris (Author, former Marine, reporter in Iraq, received Navy-Marine Corps Commendation Medal, M.A. from San Diego State University and the University of California, Irvine.)

In listening to “The Evil Hours”, the refrain “War, what is it good for, ABSOLUTLY NOTHING” from Edwin Starr’s song comes to mind. Ukraine’s and America’s current political position in ending the war are irreconcilable. Anyone who has read this blog knows I am not a fan of President Trump but his position on the war is sadly correct. It is sad because it is only Ukranian people who will suffer, not we who are isolated from the European continent.

Having recently visited the Baltics, and hearing of their experience under Stalin from a family we had dinner with makes one understand how horrible Trump’s decision will be for Ukraine’s citizens.

Trump’s decision is a Hobson’s choice because there seems no alternative. The potential for nuclear war is a threat from Putin who has an ego like Trump’s that cannot be assuaged. Putin appears not to be deterred by his followers or the Russian citizens.

What is left is the domination of a portion of Ukraine that will be forced to live under a dictatorship.

Hearing from Baltic citizens of how horrible their lives were under Stalin; one’s heart goes out to Ukrainian citizens who will have to live under Putin. Putin and Russia will pay a high price for their occupation because of citizen opposition that will take many forms. Though there is no comfort to the Ukranian people, Russia’s occupation will eventually end. The cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been high. It will be a reminder of the folly of unjust invasion and dictatorial control of an independent people.

America’s foolish Vietnam’ belief in a domino theory of Vietnam was wrong, just as the belief that Russia’s success in Ukraine will lead to further Russian expansion.

The relevance of “The Evil Hours” is the stress Ukrainians will face with Russian occupation. One hopes Russian occupation will not take as long as it did for the Baltic countries to regain independence.

PTSD is shown as the horrible consequence of internecine conflict that will continue after Russia’s occupation.

The only hope for Ukraine is a change in Russia’s leadership as a result of Putin’s foolish effort to return Russia to its past. It is the same effort and mistake Trump is making in trying to return America to the 20th century.

SERVICE & PROFIT

Government is not a business for profit and should not be solely measured by its cost. America will survive the catastrophic mistakes being made by President Trump but American citizens, and the welfare of the world will suffer for years to come.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Who is Government (The Untold Story of Public Service)

By: Michael Lewis, Casey Cep, Dave Eggers, John Lanchester, Geraldine Brooks, Sarah Vowell, and Kamau Bell

Edited By: Michael Lewis

The stories of these writers are a tribute to those who have chosen careers in American government. Having personally earned a master’s degree in public administration, worked as a local government manager, then as a manager of a private business division, and finally, as a personal business owner, I have an opinion about President Trump. My experience is based on three different types of employment. All were rewarding experiences but in fundamentally different ways.

The writers of “Who is Government” show how ignorant business creators and managers like Donald Trump and Elon Musk are in discounting the contribution of employees of government organizations. Private corporations do not survive without profit to its owners. Public organizations do not survive without service to the public.

Profit is simple to measure. Public service is measurable but more abstract and difficult to quantify.

One can choose, like Musk did with Twitter, to reduce costs by firing employees. That may improve profitability but at a cost that may hurt or destroy the future of a business. In the case of Twitter, the company lost much of their advertising revenue because an unsupervised public forum could spread false and defamatory information that embarrasses advertisers who were protected by Twitter’ employees that were fired. No analysis was done by Musk about Twitter information’ controls provided by employees. The new entity, “X”, seems to have assuaged some advertisers’ concerns because they have started to use Musk’s new company. The point is that if Musk had taken more time to evaluate what fired employees were doing, he may have retained many of the advertisers who left the forum.

Trump’s employment of Musk to decimate the government employee workforce is following the same foolish path that was taken with Twitter.

No analysis of employee contributions is made. The goal is only to reduce government’ cost regardless of employee’ contribution to public need or service. The consequences have likely reduced health and welfare of American citizens; not to mention harm done to incomes of thousands of government employees’ families.

With exceptions of George Washington, Harry Truman, Carter, and the two Bush presidents, the worst former businessman that became President was Herbert Hoover who served as President before the greatest depression in America’s history. With Trump as President, one has to wonder whether he is leading America and the world toward its second great depression.

HERBERT HOOVER (31ST PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.)

“Who is Government” illustrates how government employees have contributed to the health and welfare of America. They are unknown and viewed by people like Trump and Musk as just a cost, without benefit to the public. How many science, medical, veteran, and welfare services are being decimated by their narrow vision of government management?

Government is not a business for profit and should not be solely measured by its cost. America will survive the catastrophic mistakes being made by President Trump but American citizens, and the welfare of the world will suffer for years to come.

LIFE’S LOTTERY

The randomness of life and what we make of it is the most important theme of Weston’s insightful memoir about being “Alive”.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Alive (The Richness and Brevity of Existence)

By: Gabriel Weston

Narrated By: Gabriel Weston

Gabriel Weston (Author, English surgeon, television presenter.)

Gabriel Weston’s “Alive” is an intimate, blunt, and enlightening explanation of her experience as a woman, surgeon, mother, and member of the human race. For some, Weston’s story contains more information than one is prepared to take.

It begins with a self-effacing assessment of her early education in liberal arts where she achieved an MA in English. However, she decides to go to medical school in London where she qualifies as a physician in 2000. Her very personal memoir explains a great deal about being educated as a physician but more about being a woman.

Some reader/listeners will be put off by Weston’s blunt explanation of the human body. However, some will find much of what she writes as revelatory.

Weston explains what it means to be human and a woman who becomes a mother of twins at the age of forty, with two younger children.

It is hard to imagine a younger person who is uninterested in science, technology, engineering, or math, who receives an MA in English, would be interested in becoming a surgeon.

However, Weston chooses to become a doctor and graduates from a London medical school in 2000. She briefly explains her journey in “Alive” by reflecting on her classes in body dissection to explain the details of the human body and differences in sexual anatomy. Some will choose to leave her story, but others (if they stick with it) will be enlightened and surprised by her observations and opinions.

Weston notes the equivalent of the male penis is a woman’s clitoris. This is an interesting observation that most would be unlikely to publicly discuss or write about.

Presumably, Weston is making this point to show there is a great deal of similarity between men and women. However, she notes a significant difference. Menstruation is a sluffing process where the uterus sheds a layer of bedding material that exits the body through the vagina, i.e., something unique to women. The purpose of menstruation is to prepare the body for possible pregnancy by providing a thickening to the uterus that supports fertilization. That thickening is removed (sluffed off) approximately once per month. As is often noted, only women give birth, a singular difference between the sexes.

Weston goes on to explain her experience of birthing twins.

The two girls come late in her adult life. They are delivered in a caesarian operation. Children are born in amniotic sacs. This is likely a surprise to most men because birth of a baby is thought of as a delivery with a squirming body through the birth canal rather than a body within an amniotic sac. However, Weston notes the second twin is delivered within its amniotic sac which suggests she is a fraternal, rather than identical twin.

Syria’s use of nerve gas to murder their own citizens.

Weston’s story moderates in future chapters with notes about nerve gases used by governments to suffocate their own people as well as perceived foreign enemies. The point she makes is that oxygen deprivation in the 21st century and beyond is increasing with rising pollution on earth. She notes oxygen deprivation is the same suffocation caused when governments used lethal gases to kill their own citizens as perceived enemies. The obvious inference is today’s denial of earth’s environmental degradation risks the lives of all oxygen dependent lives.

Weston is an example of a working mother who succeeds in England despite the world’s history of misogyny.

Some women become a success despite the many obstacles they face. Weston symbolizes human grit and determination in the face of sexual inequality of opportunity but, as a human being, she is subject to the physical limitations of every life. She mentions during the course of her story a heart murmur that is caused by a defective heart valve. The last chapters of her book explain Weston is on a transplant list.

The randomness of life and what we make of it is the most important theme of Weston’s insightful memoir about being “Alive”.

GOVERNMENT LIFE CYCLE

Robert Kaplan’s inference is that all nation-state governments are being challenged by an increasingly polarized society. The question is whether Trump is a symptom or cure for the decline of America.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Waste Land (A World of Permanent Crises)

By: Robert Kaplan

Narrated By: Robert Petkoff

Robert D. Kaplan (Author, writer for The Atlantic, Washinton Post, New York Times, The New Republic, Foreign Affairs, and the Wall Street Journal)

Robert Kaplan’s book makes one pessimistic about the future of democratic government. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine, along with the re-election of Donald Trump, and the economic retrenchment of Xi in China reinforce some of the themes of Kaplan’s “Waste Land”. One who reads or hears national news understands why Kaplan argues there is a growing decline in Russia’s, China’s and America’s governments. He argues the cause of that decline is increased world interconnectedness, and rising government instability. His biggest concern is what he believes is a nascent parallel to the rise of Naziism.

The advent of the internet has been a mixed blessing because it is used to spread false information as well as the truth.

The consequence has been to make societies more polarized. An example is a widespread opinion by Trump appointees that the rise in the number of government employees is wasting taxpayer dollars for public education, science research, foreign aid, veterans’ affairs, the national park service and the IRS. (For example, an estimated 76,000 employees–16% of the work force has been discharged from Veterans Affairs. The VA provides healthcare services for eligible veterans, handles disability compensation, pensions, education assistance, like the GI bill, and home loans to citizens who have honorably served America.) These reductions in workforce are not based on any analysis of work performance but solely to reduce the cost of government. Trump, like Xi and Putin, believe Thucydides’ observation that “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”.

Trump’s firings are being done by an appointed agent of the President who decimated the work force of Twitter in the same way he is arbitrarily discharging American government employees.

Kaplan argues today’s political atmosphere in America, Russia, and China are similar to the societal condition of Germany before the rise of Hitler. He points to the fragility of authoritarians and the rise of societal polarization in today’s world. He compares economic instability, social discontent, and political extremism of the Weimar Republic to what he implies is a growing condition in both Western democracies and Eastern autocracies. The last chapters of Kaplan’s book focus on urbanization of the world and its consequent polarization of society that is deconstructed governance in a way that reminds him of the Weimar Republic’s deterioration. He infers Trump’s re-election, the dismantling of the American government, and America’s social disruption is similar to what happened in Germany in the early 1930s.

An example of the disruption of which Kaplan writes is the Venezuela immigrants who were flown to El Salvador and frog-walked to an El Salvador prison without adjudication by America’s judicial system.

Kaplan’s argument is that President Trump is destabilizing the American government by violating the Constitution of the United States.

A federal judge ordered a plane full of alleged immigrants (identified as gang members) to be returned to the United States. The plane was in the air when the President in apparent defiance of a direct court order chose to not have the plane turned around. The deported were filmed as they were frog-walked into a foreign jail while being denied any hearing or adjudication of their alleged criminality. The President of the United States appears to have ignored a Federal Court, the Third Branch of American government, designed to balance arbitrary actions of either a President or Congress for denying due process of law.

America re-elected Trump despite his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records for paying “hush money” to Stormy Daniels when first elected in 2016.

Though Trump’s conviction does not rise to the level of Hitler’s high treason in the failed Beer Hall Putsch, willingness to lie under oath is a troubling characteristic for a President, let alone, any citizen of the United States. According to news reports, Trump says he did not know he had been asked to turn the plane around by a Federal Judge. One might ask why should America believe what he says?

Trump is challenging the authority of Congress and the Judiciary by taking actions without consideration of the Constitution of the United States.

This reminds one of human rights violations in the early days of Hitler’s rise in Germany. Hitler gathered sympathizers from disillusioned veterans, business leaders, the middle class, the German youth, and Far-Right Nationalists. Trump appears to have had similar support in his re-election. Trump decides to pardon all January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol attackers. Those pardons are a diminishment of American democracy akin to Hitler’s support of Nazi sympathizers.

Attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021–Trump pardons all attackers on 1/20/25, after being re-elected as President of the United States.

Deng led a transformative change in China’s economy after Mao’s death. With a pragmatic judgement that “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice”

In the last third of Kaplan’s book, the incredible success of China under Deng Xiaoping is addressed. Kaplan explains Deng became the leader of China between 1978 and 1989. Though Deng was a contemporary leader during the Mao administration, Deng led a transformative change in China’s economy after Mao’s death. With a pragmatic judgement that “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice” he opened China to the pursuit of personal, and individual citizen’ prosperity. The result of Deng’s pragmatism was the unprecedented economic growth and wealth of China. Much of what Deng started has been reversed by the Xi administration. In Kaplan’s opinion, the resurgence of the communist party has led to a reversal of economic growth in China. Kaplan infers a return to collectivism is a reflection of societal interconnectedness with a government-controlled internet that denies freedom of thought and action by China’s citizens.

Kaplan refers to Jane Jacobs (1916-2006) and the urbanization of America. He notes Oswald Spengler (1929-1936) recognized the implication of urbanization is government deterioration as a part of the natural lifecycle of every civilization. The point Kaplan makes is that nation-states have become like the early cities Jacobs refers to but with an interconnectedness that accelerates and shortens government lifecycles. Robert Kaplan’s inference is that all nation-state governments are being challenged by an increasingly polarized society caused by internet connectedness. The question is whether Trump is a symptom or cure for the decline of America.

AMERICAN HOPE

From Fukuyama’s intellectual musing to our eyes and ears, one hopes he is correct about America’s future in the technological age.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Great Disruption (Human Nature and the Reconstitution of Social Order)

By: Francis Fukuyama

Francis Fukuyama (Author, political scientist, political economist, international relations scholar.)

Francis Fukuyama argues America is at the threshold of a social reconstitution. Fukuyama believes we are at Gladwell’s “Tipping Point” that is changing social norms and rebuilding America’s social order. He argues the innovation of technology, like the industrial revolution, is deconstructing social relationships and economics while reconstructing capitalist democracy.

The immense power of big technology companies like Amazon, Google, and Facebook have outsized influence on American society. They change the tone of social interaction through their ability to disseminate both accurate and misleading information. They erode privacy and create algorithms tailored to disparate interest groups that polarize society. The media giant’s objective is to increase clicks on their platforms to attract more advertisers who pay for public exposure of their service, merchandise, and brand.

To reduce outsize influence of big tech companies, Fukuyama suggests more technology has an answer.

There should be more antitrust measures instituted by the government to break monopolistic practices and encourage competition with large technology companies. Algorithms created by oversight government organizations can ensure transparency and reduce harmful content to reduce big tech companies influence on society. (One doubts expansion of government agencies is a likely scenario in today’s government.)

On the one hand, technology has improved convenience, communication, and a wider distribution of information.

On the other, technology has flooded society with misinformation, invaded privacy, and polarized society. Technology has created new jobs while increasing loss of traditional industry jobs with automation. Trying to return to past labor-intensive manufacturing companies is a fool’s errand in the age of technology.

Luddites during the Industrial Revolution.

Like the industrial revolution, the tech revolution’s social impact is mixed with a potential for greater social isolation, and job displacement with the addition of wide distribution of misinformation. The positives of new technology are improvements in healthcare product and services, renewable energy, and climate understanding with potential for improved control.

Face-to-face interactions become less and less necessary. Children’s access to technology impacts parental supervision and relationship. Fukuyama suggests setting boundaries for technology use needs to be a priority in American families. Technology can open the door to better education, but it also becomes a source of misinformation that can come from the internet of things. Employers have the opportunity to help with work-life balance by encouraging flexible hours and remote work. (Oddly, that suggestion is being undermined by the current government administration and many American companies.)

Economic growth, access to information, and global connectivity have been positively impacted by technology. However, the concentration of power, misinformation, and surveillance of social media has diminished privacy and eroded individual freedom. There are concerns about technology and how it is good and bad for democratic capitalism.

The good lies in increased efficiency, innovation and creation of new markets, through globalization. However, today’s American government shows how tariffs are a destroyer of globalization. Fukuyama implies A.I. and automation is displacing workers and aggravating economic inequality because it is being misunderstood for its true potential and also being misused. Personal data is used to manipulate consumers in ways that challenge the balance between corporations and consumers.

Fukuyama argues private parties will grow in America to create software that will filter and customize online services.

With that effort control of the influence of big tech companies will be diminished. With decentralization of big tech power and influence, society will theoretically become less polarized and more consensus oriented. The capitalist opportunity for tech savvy startups that diminish influence of big tech companies will re-create diversification like that which the matured industrial revolution gave to new manufacturers. Like Standard Oil and other conglomerates of the industrial revolution, businesses like Amazon, Google, and Facebook will have competition that diminishes their power and influence.

American Government will grow to regulate the internet of things just as it has grown to regulate banks, industries, and social services.

Service to citizens will become a bigger part of the economy as a replacement for manufacturing. Family life will re-invent itself as a force of society because of the time saved from manufacturing product to improve human relationships.

From Fukuyama’s intellectual musing to our eyes and ears, one hopes he is correct about America’s future in the technological age.

TIPPING POINT

Today, some look at the American government with concern. Are we at a tipping point in America?

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.

Revenge of the Tipping Point (Overstories, Superspreaders, and the Rise of Social Engineering)

By: Malcolm Gladwell

Narrated By: Malcolm Gladwell

Malcolm Gladwell (Canadian Author, journalist, public speaker, staff writer for The New Yorker.)

Malcolm Gladwell returns to the subject of “…Tipping Point” that originally explored how small actions or events can trigger significant changes in society. “Revenge of the Tipping Point” provides several stories of tipping points that have had vengeful consequences for society.

One of the most consequential tipping point stories is about America’s attempt to engineer social equality.

America is struggling with social diversity. Gladwell infers social diversity is a great strength in American society. However, our government and domestic leaders have legislated discrimination, fought wars, murdered innocents, and promoted ethnic separation throughout its history as a nation. Despite our most famous statement of American value, i.e. “E pluribus unum” (Out of many, one), America has failed.

The value of social diversity is it allows Americans to achieve great things despite inequality that exists in America.

Gladwell tells the story of a community in Florida that prides itself on being an exemplar of American society because of its strong educational values, cultural pride, community support, and economic mobility. The people who live in this community focus on preserving and celebrating their ethnic heritage, traditions, and identity. They assemble an island of cultural sameness that overtly and covertly resists change. Those who are not of the right ethnic heritage or race who may have the same drive for high educational achievement, community participation, and relative wealth are not welcome. The tipping point revenge Gladwell notes is in the stress this community places on its children to excel academically and conform to expectation. Gladwell notes student suicides are disproportionately high because of the social pressure children feel to conform. The social pressure for conformity and educational expectation overwhelms some who live in the community. Some parents choose to send their children outside the community school system to allay the social pressure they feel.

Gladwell notes the 2023 Supreme Court rejection of college acceptance based on diversity. The Court denies the right of colleges to recruit students based on ethnicity or race.

On the face of it, that seems an unfair decision but Gladwell notes that the schools being challenged on their diversity policies refuse to explain how they determine who should be admitted based on a percentage figure of fair representation. Gladwell notes the primary criteria for college selection has little to do with a drive for diversity but are based on revenue producing university sports programs and donor money. Minority preference admissions are based on income potential for the university, not social diversity.

The Supreme Court ruling does not preclude consideration of an applicant’s personal life experience, but Gladwell notes it nevertheless has nothing to do with a drive for equality or diversity.

Unfortunately, the Supreme Court decision may cause a reevaluation of outreach to minorities who have been denied equal opportunity for personal success. Gladwell’s ironic point is that American diversity in the pre-Supreme Court decision was never based on creating diversity but on raising money for university foundations.

Gladwell explains the drug crises is more of an American problem than for most other nations of the world.

One asks oneself, what makes America the center of opioid addiction and death.

From the greed of drug dealers, medicine manufacturers and doctors who prescribe opioids, America has the highest opioid deaths in the world. Though Estonia has the highest opioid death’s per capita because of its smaller population, the manufacturers and doctor-prescribed synthetic opioids have greatly increased American’s deaths. Purdue Pharma aggressively marketed OxyContin with the owners, the Sackler family, reaching a multibillion-dollar settlement. Many doctors like Dr. Hsiu-Ying Tseng and Dr. Nelson Onaro have been prosecuted for overprescribing opioids or running “pill mills” that provided opioids to the public.

Gladwell suggests it is the superspreaders, worldwide legal and illegal manufacturers and sellers of opioids, and incompetent/greedy medical prescribers as tipping point causes of America’s addiction crises. However, he argues there are environmental and systemic societal factors that create a receptive user base in America. Economic stability is unattainable for many Americans because of economic, racial, and ethnic differences. He argues small actions and decisions lead to widespread consequences. Every human being has a tipping point based on their experience in the world. The ideals of America conflict with its reality. The pain of that realization leads some to relief through drugs, a step-by-step addiction that can lead to death.

Berlin Memorial to the Holocaust.

There are other tipping points Gladwell explains. One that resonates with my life experience is the ignorance many have of the history of the world. Some would argue, Americans became aware of the Holocaust after the end of the war in 1945. However, Gladwell argues most Americans remained ignorant of its reality until 1978 following the release of the NBC miniseries “Holocaust”. Until then, Gladwell argues there was little broad cultural understanding of its atrocity. Having graduated from high school in 1965, much of what Gladwell notes about ignorance of the Holocaust rings loudly and clearly.

I doubt that many were completely ignorant of the Holocaust, but its brutal reality was not taught in the high school I attended in the 60s. Having visited Auschwitz and viewed its gas chamber, piles of discarded shoes and clothes, and pictures of murdered human beings, the truth and guilt that one feels for being a part of humanity is overwhelming.

We have an FBI director that wants to have men and women of the agency coordinate training with the UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship), headquartered in Las Vegas. We have a President who publicly chastises Ukraine’s President and suggests they caused Russia’s invasion of their country. We have a President that insists America is being taken advantage of by lower cost production of product of other countries and that tariffs are a way to balance the American budget. We have a Palestinian protester at Columbia University who is arrested for social disruption. The head of the Department of Health Services orders lie detector tests for employees to find any leaks about the current Administration’s actions.

Tariffs have historically been found to damage America’s economy. Is the FBI a military force that needs to be schooled in hand-to-hand combat? One need only read Adam Smith about free trade to understand the fallacy of Tariffs. Have we forgotten the invasions of Austria and Poland by Germany at the beginnings of WWII? Is free speech a crime because of tents that disrupt college life? Should we use lie detector tests to determine the loyalty of employees?

Are these incidents a tipping point for American Democracy to turn into something different and demonstrably less than the founding principles of American government?