Category: ECONOMICS

MONEY’S VALUE

Ahamad suggests the public needs to oppose policies based on economic and political leaders’ singular judgements. Public input to government decision-making is an essential strength of democracy and the great weakness of autocracy.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

1873 (The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World) 

Author: Liaquat Ahamed

Narration by: George Newbern

Liaquat Ahamed (Author, American financial historian.)

Liaquat Ahamed’s book, “1873”, has been somewhat anxiously awaited for by the public because of his previous book “Lords of Finance” which reported central bankers’ roles in the Great Depression. Talk of depression swirls around the public today. What parallels are there between “1873” and the current world financial market? Liaquat Ahamed explains the impact of railroad expansion and world trade that exploded in the 19th century. He suggests that explosion seems parallel to today’s impact of transformative technology like A.I. which has shown potential for productivity increase around the world. That expectation magnifies the amount of capital being invested in a changing paradigm in society that Ahamad argues is similar while different from railroad introduction in the 19th century.

Globalization of information technology.

Globalization makes change more impactful today because of the world wide web and a potential for spreading useful and harmful information. Ahamed suggests the vast investment in railroads has parallels to communication technology’s introduction in today’s economy. The rush to create datacenters requires large capital investments with the creation of data centers that challenge today’s energy availability. Corruption became common in the 19th century with schemes designed to lure nations and investors into impractical investments. Ahamed recounts grifter’ pitches in the 19th century similar to crypto bubble makers of the 21st century. In the 19th century, mostly banks, governments, and wealthy risk takers were making foolish investment risks for hoped-for wealth. Today, crypto bubble makers reach into the pockets of the poor and middleclass.

Crypto investment.

As the public today becomes skeptical about tech investments, the banks of the 19th century belatedly turned skeptical about transportation system expansion. The growing malaise of recession turned into a depression in the 19th century. Ahamed argues today is similar to what caused the 19th century economy to slip into recession and depression. Ahamed suggests the political polarization occurring in the 19th century is evident in today’s political climate. The split between Trump supporters and detractors is widespread in America. Trump’s attacks on global cooperation seem similar to what occurred in the 19th century. Like the farmers of 1873, factions of America resent their loss of jobs and manufacturing income to other countries. The geopolitical shocks of the Ukraine war, America’s bombing of Iran, Russia’s Ukraine war, and growing tensions with China magnify inflation and create capital reallocations that harm respective economies and increase potential for world-wide financial collapse.

Ahamed’s book outlines similarities and differences between the past and present, foretelling a possible future.

Ahamed suggests that America needs to avoid a rigid monetary policy based on “who’s ox is gored”. Further, investment in technology needs to be reined in by reducing the hype about loss of jobs with a realistic judgement of employment impact and technologies’ benefits. Political and business leadership need more transparency and public oversight to improve societal decisions on technological investment. Investment opportunities need to be reasonably evaluated to avoid bubbles that distort capital flows. Ahamed suggests power brokers, whether private or public, need to avoid over reaction to inflation by being wary, but not overly punitive, toward investment in new technology.

Breadlines in the 1929 economic crash.

Ahamed offers several individual examples of con men who created hype-driven market manipulation that fueled 19th century fraud with over-optimism, and self-promotion based on new railroad building schemes. One listens to the methodology of these con men and will recall news articles today about technology fraudsters. Though only 3 to 4 percent of SpaceX shares are owned publicly, it reminds one of the over-optimism and self-promotion of Elon Musk. This is not to say Musk is a con man, but it reflects how over confidence in technology is similar to the over confidence in railway expansion in the 19th century. Additionally, search of the news of crypto scammers in the 21st century show there are three Thai suspects, 22 accused scammers in Palau, 82 accused scammers in Eswatini, and an astounding 15,260 suspects worldwide.

Truth is left to historians, and society’s judgement.

Liaquat Ahamed suggests the U.S. presidential elections are directly distorted by the financial crisis surrounding 1873. Ulysses Grant’s administration is undermined by the loss of public confidence in the federal government. The civil rights movement is stalled because northern voters were less willing to support federal intervention in the South. The Republican Party lost the political will to continue Reconstruction policies. Voters punished incumbents because of the economic crisis of the 1870s. Ahamed argues the economic collapse destabilized all governments and empowered reactionary forces that weakened government reforms. Conspiracy theories blossomed with scapegoating of all who had been elected to govern in the western world.

People are being arrested based on the color of their skin with the presumption that they are not citizens of America and are deported without legal recourse.

Today’s American government has stalled support of fundamental rights written in the Constitution. People are being arrested based on the color of their skin with the presumption that they are not citizens of America and should be deported. A majority of American voters elected a President who empowers the government to destabilize its relationship with former allies of democracy. Conspiracy theories abound on causes of global warming to support beliefs that it is a natural event that cannot be mitigated by reducing fossil fuel use and accelerating wind, water, and solar energy uses. Belief in a “deep state” conspiracy has created government and political distrust. QAnon like cabals have grown to spew allegations of secret wars being waged by special interests. Distrust of the United Nations is increasingly viewed as a body plotting to replace nation-state government. That view grows and feeds America’s “go it alone” belief as the only way to sustain democracy.

Where unemployment is created by new technology, America needs to support those who are displaced.

Despite Liaquat Ahamed’s argument that today’s America has similarities to America’s 19th century circumstances, he suggests there are reasons to believe 19th century mistakes can be avoided. Where unemployment is created by new technology, America needs to support those who are displaced. When faced with inflation and economic threat, rather than depending on singular leadership decisions, government should support flexible polices by the central banks of America. Public input to government decision-making is an essential strength of democracy. When public expertise is ignored, judgement is degraded and America becomes less democratic and more likely to fail.

Rothschild Family Tree

As one nears the end of Ahamed’s book, one wonders why the Rothchild’s are prominently noted in its subtitle. His point is that the Rothschilds were the only global financial institution that successfully survived the ups and downs of the banking industry in the 19th century. Their success influenced unjust anti-Semitic growth in the world. The Rothschilds embodied the tension between stability and speculation with their long-term stability as a lending institution. The Rothchild’s stability became a symbol of global finance that influenced political actions around the world. The price paid by the Rothchild families’ success fed the worst in human nature exemplified by the Holocaust of WWII.

No leader is infallible but those who listen and act on the basis of others expertise are more likely to make the right decisions. That is Ahamed’s solution to avoid economic depressions like those of 1873 and 1929. Proof of this opinion is in the financial crises of 2008 and the world’s recovery. This is not to argue that many citizens were not harmed and unfairly treated in the 2008 crisis, but the spread of a world economic collapse was avoided.

HUMAN FOLLY

The weakness in Goldfarb’s idea of beaver management is that human society has never been good at “managing” animal behavior. The laws of unintended consequences seem to always get in the way.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Eager (The Surprising, Secret Life of Beavers and Why They Matter) 

Author: Ben Goldfarb

Narration by: William Damron

Ben Goldfarb (Author, environmental writer, journalist based in Colorado.)

Goldfarb has written a book about beavers, a nocturnal, thick furred, waterproof coated animal with teeth powerful enough to fell trees, strip bark, build natural dams, and carve channels through wood. His history of beavers is a mixture of positives and negativities about an animal that is both ecologically beneficial and destructive. Goldfarb clearly comes down on the side of ecological value for society to endorse beaver preservation and growth.

Beaver species.

A fairly balanced history of beavers is given by Goldfarb but those who take the time to listen/read his book are likely to be skeptical. Beavers naturally create wetland habitats that store water, filter pollutants, and create habitats for fish, birds, amphibians, and insects. Beavers are natural hydrological engineers that slow water erosion, restore groundwater, and mitigate drought. The ponds and wetlands they naturally create become fire safety breaks. Beavers create ponds that store carbon, buffer heat, and aid human climate-adaptation. On the other hand, beavers cause flooding of roads, basements, and farmland fields. They destroy trees, flood crops, and interfere with irrigation systems. They naturally propagate themselves to aggravate negative impacts on human farming and habitation.

Wetland management.

Goldfarb suggests the negative impact of beavers can be mitigated by human management of their behavior in natural habitats. To prevent flooding, he notes human actions can be taken to control water levels with flow regulation. Goldfarb notes beaver deception devices have been created by humans that effectively prevent flooding by deceiving beaver’s natural building habits that raise water levels. Goldfarb notes beavers natural dam building can continue with human oversight to control water levels with culvert diversions. Particular trees can be fenced or protected by wire mesh from being destroyed. The population of beavers can be managed by moving species to other sites or by limiting their areas of colonization. The advantage of beaver management is that beaver productivity would benefit society at less cost than human engineering and building of water management systems.

Natural beaver habitat?

With proper management by society, natural beaver habitats can improve water storage, buffer for fire damage, create natural fisheries, and restore the benefits of wetlands to the environment. Beavers could become the engineers and laborers needed to create an improved natural environment.

Mackenzie Wolf Alaskan Tundra Wolf or Canadian Timber Wolf Canis lupus occidentalis wolves in the snow

However, history shows humans have overfished habitats of Atlantic cod, Bluefin tuna, and salmon which has been exacerbated by poor hatchery management and dam construction. Predator eradication by humans wiped out wolves across Europe and North America causing explosions in deer and elk populations that overgrazed forests and caused excessive river erosion. Bison killed by human hunters nearly disappeared on the Great Plains in the 19th century. Their eradication is partly responsible for prairie ecosystem deterioration from invasive grasses, soil carbon depletion, and increasing dust storms. Mass poisoning campaigns of rats and mice led to their resistance to poisons and indirectly killed owls, hawks, and foxes.

The weakness in Goldfarb’s idea of beaver management is that human society has never been good at “managing” animal behavior. The laws of unintended consequences seem to always get in the way.

GUILT

A company and its employees can be convicted for insider trading and be sentenced to prison but a company’ owner can walk away with a fine and no criminal penalty or prison time.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Black Edge (Inside Information, Dirty Money, and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wallstreet) 

Author: Sheelah Kohatkar

Narration by: Kaleo Griffith

Sheelah Kohatkar (Author, staff writer for the New Yorker.)

“Black Edge” is about insider information that will give an advantage to a stock market’ investor. There is an elusive line crossed when an investor solicits information from an informed source that is not available to all investors. The line seems blurred by how the question is asked and whether the information given is available to everyone that is interested. Because the solicitation of information is not publicly provided information, the law defines it as illegal advantage to a singular investor rather than the general public. What makes this difficult to grasp is a diligent investor might do more research than the general public before investing in a stock. Is diligence a crime? Who is the criminal–the investor, the person who reveals proprietary company information, or the information pursuer? “Black Edge” implies all three are guilty but only one is criminally chargeable.

Steven A. Cohen (Former owner of SAC Capital.)

Sheelah Kohatkar researches the rise of Steven A. Cohen and SAC Capital to explain how complicated and difficult it is to prosecute an investor or his/her company for insider trading based on “Black Edge” information. One might argue Steven Cohen simply created an investment company focused on researching possible stock investments or sales based on the best information that can be found by diligent research on a company’s activities. Cohen gambled on that information by making large investments short sales or divestments of a subject company’s stock. SAC Capital became extraordinarily successful in buying, shorting, or selling publicly held stock based on that research. Kohatkar shows how those actions became criminal because of employee’ researchers that fed information to SAC Capital that is not readily available to the public. This became a violation of the law because Cohen’s company bet on what is classified as “insider information” found by SAC employees. Of course, that information may have been acquired by any investor who is willing to create an organization designed to research a target companies’ product before making a decision to invest in, short, or sell its stock.

SAC Capital is fined $1.8 billion dollars and is dismantled when found guilty of insider trading.

Cohen is never found personally guilty of insider trading, but SAC Capital is fined $1.8 billion dollars and is dismantled as part of a plea. The firm is found guilty with Cohen forbidden the right to manage outside money for two years with a payment of a $90 million dollar penalty. After expiration of the ban, he starts a new company, Point72 Asset Management, that manages billions of dollars for himself and his investors.

Cohen is never imprisoned for his investment activities but two of his employees were found guilty, fined, and imprisoned.

Cohen is never imprisoned for his investment activities but some of his employees were found guilty, imprisoned, and taken from their families. Cohen insulated himself from researchers in his firm and avoided direct communication with publicly held’ companies in which he chose to invest, short, or sell stock in. Cohen paid a penalty but served no time in prison for insider trading. In contrast, people he employed to get insider information went to prison, were fined, and endured family hardship caused by that imprisonment.

Kafka’s hell exists in today’s world just as it did when it was published in 1925.

Cohen’s attorneys manage to show prosecutors that he never knowingly participated in the collection of insider information. However, Mathew Martoma and Michael Steinberg, two of Cohen’s employees, were convicted because they were proven to have directly obtained non-public information, traded on it and personally profited from insider information. These two employees gathered (from personal conversations and private reports of publicly held companies) information not available to the general public. Their personal trades on non-public information made them guilty of “insider information” crime. In contrast, Cohen is not criminally prosecuted because he could not be affirmatively proven to have instructed his employees to gather insider information. Cohen is found to have failed to supervise his employees but that is only a civil, not criminal act.

This is a troubling history. “Black Edge” shows that an investment company’s structure can be set up to pressure employees to break the law without being held criminally liable for the use of insider information.

Even though an owner creates a company designed to solicit insider information, they shield themselves from criminal liability. The employees who actually gather insider information are guilty but the owner of a company who profits from their work is not guilty of the same crime. A company and its employees can be convicted for insider trading and be sentenced to prison but a company’ owner may walk away with a fine and no criminal penalty or prison time. As Lord Acton noted in 1887, “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”.

WHO’S CHOKING

Economic chokepoints illustrated by Fishman are real, but their effectiveness is problematic.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Chokepoints (American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare)

Author: Edward Fishman

Narration by: Robert Petkoff

Edward Fishman (American author, international relations scholar, former diplomat at the Council on Foreign Relations, professor of Public Affairs at Columbia, University.)

Edward Fishman offers a detailed history of economic “Chokepoints” that have become a tool of war between nation-states. He reminds readers of Trump’s first term as President of the United States. Trump did not change from policies he believed in his first term. He only became more effective in carrying out his beliefs in his second term.

Trump’s beliefs.

Fishman shows how Trump combines the tactics of warfare with economic chokepoints to decimate Iranian cities while starving its citizens of their right to believe and live. Trump is convinced of the potential of Iran’s current leadership to use weapons of nuclear war to destroy civilization because of religious belief. Trump chooses to bomb Iran while expanding economic policies instituted by both Democratic and Republican administrations to choke petroleum revenues from a country that provides 20% of the world’s oil needs.

Like the bombing of Dresden in WWII, today’s America is senselessly bombing Iran.

Trump is waging a war on the singular belief that he can force Iran to abandon research for a nuclear bomb. The consequence is to embroil America in a war of attrition and destruction based on Trump’s belief that Iran’s leadership is willing to use nuclear war to end life on earth for a place in heaven. Trump’s actions are deluded idea of a “bully in a school yard”. Denying nuclear bomb development by force is a fool’s errand. North Korea, Russia, China, and America are as likely to instigate a nuclear war as Iran. Religious belief is Trump’s excuse; not a cause for war.

Iranian citizen protest.

It is the citizens of Iran that bare the consequence of America’s chokepoint decisions.

Fishman explains how economic chokepoints have becomes as devastating as war. The Iranian people have been impoverished by American allies’ cooperation in restricting their economy. It may be, like the physical war against Germany and Japan in WWII, economic chokepoints will make Iran bend its knee. On the other hand, it may continue a “forever war” that only diminishes humanity. Chokepoints are a war by other means that offer compromise, or dictatorship. Chokepoint effects are poverty, death, or compromise. Religion, like political belief, is a personal choice that cannot be eradicated by force.

Effects of human descent.

Economic chokepoints illustrated by Fishman are real, but their effectiveness is problematic. First, one must identify the economic target that is affective. Second, there must be unity and credibility among nations that can enforce a chokepoint. Even with a chosen chokepoint, the target may make citizens willing to sacrifice everything for belief in sovereignty.

AMERICAN AMBITION

Keefe shows Arthur Sackler raised himself in America through grit and determination, i.e., little seems handed to him on a silver plate. This is not to suggest the drug industry or the Sackler’s of the world carry no responsibility for addiction but opportunity and a way to succeed in an American life is a choice.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Empire of Pain (The Secret History of the Sackler Dynasty)

Author: Patrick Radden Keefe

Narration by: Patrick Radden Keefe

Patrick Radden Keefe (Author, investigative journalist, staff writer for The New Yorker.)

Patrick Radden Keefe’s book is a detailed examination of the Sackler family, and more specifically, the dynasty that grew after the life and death of Arthur Mitchell Sackler who died in 1987. Arthur Sackler was a trained physician who specialized in biological psychiatry. Through hard work, he built a family fortune with a company specializing in medical advertising and pharmaceutical marketing. With wealth created by advertising, the Sackler patriarch acquired interests in specific drugs that added to the wealth of the Sackler empire. One of those investments is made by the sons of Arthur Sackler. It became known as OxyContin which became a huge revenue producer controlled by Arthur’s heirs. Dr. Paul Goldenheim and Dr. Robert Kaico were the scientists who invented OxyContin while working for Purdue Pharma, a company owned by Arthur’s brothers. Arthur Sackler is characterized by Keefe as secretive about his ownership interests while becoming a very rich man. The structure of his business interests and its conflicts of interest are passed on to his heirs.

Arthur M. Sackler (American psychiatrist and marketer of pharmaceuticals.)

Arthur dies nine years before OxyContin exists. Despite the difficult life Arthur Sadler had with the bankruptcy of his father, he works his way through school, becomes a licensed physician and starts a pharmaceutical advertising company. He worked as a physician, a medical researcher, and owner of a company that advertised his and other medically researched and discovered drugs. This opened the door to profiteering from drug promotions and conflicts of interest in groundbreaking and potentially harmful drugs. As a physician, it put Arthur and other research physicians in position to market drugs and influence prescriptions for drugs that may or may not be safe or effective. As an advertiser of a physician/scientists’ own drugs, they could skirt independent judgement of their effectiveness or possible side effects. The FDA is created to avoid that possibility, but Keefe illustrates how that roadblock is compromised. Keefe recounts how a leader of the FDA is compromised by his relationship with the drug industry.

The Family That Built an Empire of Pain - Strength and Hope

Arthur’s wealth and investment interests are inherited by his divorced wife, his new wife, and his brothers, i.e., Ramond, Mortimer, and Richard who led the company after Arthur’s death. The brothers sell their patent on OxyContin to Purdue Pharma. The brothers start two branches of their business, one of which retains control of OxyContin’s manufacture, marketing, sale, and profit. Patent law is a legal ownership “smoke” screen that protects company owners from liability for harm from patents a company holds. A company may own a patent independently, without recourse to its company’s owners. Purdue Pharma grows and uses its wealth to influence politicians, government officials and doctors to endorse drugs like OxyContin.

OxyContin dosages.

As is known by many Americans, OxyContin has had a catastrophic impact on America. It its launch in 1996, OxyContin is considered by some to be a gateway to addictive drugs like heroin and fentanyl. In 2026, it is estimated that 200 deaths per day were happening from fentanyl overdoses. What Keefe argues is that when the structural conflicts of interest were introduced by the Sackler family (especially with the creation of Purdue Pharma) the lines between drug efficacy and profits were breached by the medical profession.

What Keefe reveals in his research is that pharmaceutical-physician relationships cross the line of conflicts of interest.

Doctors receiving “speaker fees”, continuing-education events, consulting positions, and industry-funded clinical guidelines are being lured into prescribing drugs that may or may not be safe or effective. Funding for medical research frequently comes from companies more interested in profit then drug efficacy. Government regulators are influence by lobbyist for a drug industry that is mired in potential conflicts of interest. Keefe notes there is a revolving door between the FDA and pharma employment. Keefe notes marketing has become a part of medical education. He infers philanthropy by the drug industry may be a bribe to influence public acceptance of drug treatments that are not effective.

Coming away from Keefe’s analysis of the drug industry, one is troubled by its corruption vulnerabilities in a society that prides itself on freedom and rule-of-law.

In one sense, Arthur Sackler is a tribute to how America became one of the wealthiest and most powerful countries in the world. One doubts that the Sackler family planned to create a drug that would addict and kill so many Americans. The Sackler family played a role but how many Americans have made mistakes in their drive for success. Keefe shows Arthur Sackler raised himself in America through grit and determination, i.e., little seems handed to him on a silver plate. This is not to suggest the drug industry or the Sackler’s of the world carry no responsibility for addiction but opportunity and a way to succeed in an American life is a choice.

NATIVE AMERICANS

Pember’s story of her life is heartbreaking but it reminds one of the harshness of life for every ethnicity and gender that is unfairly treated in society. Regardless of one’s ethnicity–poverty and unequal opportunity are plagues in every society. They are infections with no known cure.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Medicine River (A Story of Survival and the Legacy of Indian Boarding Schools)

Author: Mary Annette Pember

Narration by: Erin Tripp

Mary Annette Pember (Author, national correspondent for ICT News, journalist, descendent of an Ojibwe family.)

Mary Annette Pember offers a firsthand, intergenerational perspective of America’s effort to assimilate native inhabitants of America. She details the 1950s brutality, hunger, impoverishment, humiliation, and emotional neglect that diminished the economic security and sovereignty of a distinct ethnicity (the Ojibwe) in America. From research of Indian boarding school records and her personal experience, she draws a picture of the ignorance, disrespect, and discrimination by white Americans of a culture different than their own. She notes the unmarked graves, survivor testimonies of boarding school experiences, and government investigations that fail to correct the misbegotten effort to destroy a native culture in America. (The name America came from a German cartographer’s labeling of a map to honor Amerigo Vespucci, a Florentine-born merchant, navigator, and explorer in the 15th and early 16th century.)

The multicultural world in which we live.

Her story is not particularly well written, but it clearly documents the ignorance and brutality of a growing white American culture. She presents an emotional truth about American government’s discrimination and why, in modern times, it is still trying to assuage its guilt. Pember’s harsh assessment of nuns who ran early schools for native descendants seems to unfairly discount a stern and punitive habituation that is true of all early “nun-managed” schools in America. In the mid-20th century, Catholic schooling relied heavily on strict order, corporal punishment, and cultural obedience. Their religious vocation reinforced an authority that applied to all students, whether native American or not. That is why the American government chose to create grants to the Catholic Church for indoctrination and education of the Ojibwe and other native Americans.

Protestant and Catholic religions in America.

The U.S. government funded native American Catholic Church schools because of their strict teaching habits. Their teaching style would demand language conformance, common spiritual belief, and reinforce Christian ideals that were acceptable to most of America’s non-native citizens. This is not to minimize the cruelty of these native American boarding schools but to suggest all Catholic schools exercised strict order that went beyond education and devolved into neglect and death in many native American’ boarding schools. The harsh disciplinary treatment of native Americans is worse, but the discipline and teaching methods of Catholic nuns set a horrible precedent that grew out of control in their schools.

Poverty and predation is widespread in the world.

The poverty and predation that Pember reveals in the story of her family’s life grows to be more widespread. The history of America’s treatment of native American tribes is recounted in many books. The constant tribal relocations of the government and murder of native Americans is well documented. Poverty and lack of equal opportunity is shown by Pember to be severe for native Americans just as it was for black Americans. One can only imagine how hard it would be for an Indian woman when all women are equally disadvantaged by poverty and lack of opportunity in the world.

Poverty in the middle east.

Pember’s story of her life is heartbreaking but it reminds one of the harshness of life for every ethnicity and gender that is unfairly treated in society. Regardless of one’s ethnicity–poverty and unequal opportunity are plagues in every society. They are infections with no known cure.

Gender Inequality

Raising children is the responsibility of all, i.e., both mothers and fathers, and the society in which they live. The future depends on our children.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Lessons in Chemistry (A Novel)

Author: Bonnie Garmus

Narration by: Miranda Raison & 2 more

Bonnie Garmus (American author and former copywriter.)

Bonnie Garmus’s main character represents the truth of gender inequality in society. The author’s main character, Elisabeth Zott, is an example of a woman who achieves success despite gender discrimination. As an idealized character, Zott represents a brilliant woman who is smarter, more self-motivated, and confident than any other character in “Lessons in Chemistry”. Zott is a self-educated woman who overcomes the ignorance of personal and social inequality. She is an aspiring scientist who is derailed in her career by male associates who steal her research and claim it as their own. It is presumed by the research firm for which she works that her science papers come from association with her male partner’s accomplishments rather than her own work. Zott’s value is believed to be her attractive appearance rather than her intellect, personal work, and ambition.

Equal opportunity in society is a fiction.

Zott’s male partner is a renowned scientist in the same scientific research firm for which Zott is employed. They become an intimate couple with marriage on the mind of the man, but independence insisted upon by Zott. Her companion dies in an accident and Zott is left with what is an unexpected pregnancy. Alone with a child, Zott presumes she will continue to work at the research firm but is fired by the male director of the enterprise because of her having a baby out of wedlock. Zott uses what financial savings she has to create a research lab in her house, raise her child, and find another source of employment. The author illustrates how motherhood, particularly for a single woman, limit women’s opportunity in society. The responsibilities of life for a woman with child and no partner often trap women in poverty.

How Zott escapes a life of poverty is a meaningful fairy tale in Garmus’s story.

Zott is hired by a TV production manager to host a cooking show. Zott’s intelligence and experience as a chemist combine with her drive for independence to make the show a success. What Bonnie Garmus shows is the mountain for success one climbs as a single woman is steeper and more difficult than it is for men. The “Lessons in Chemistry” are that a woman’s right to think, work, and live independently are denied because equal opportunity and equal pay is thwarted by gender-related discrimination.

All in society, both male and female, need to step up to their responsibility for raising children.

The “Lessons in Chemistry” suggest men need to step up in society and take responsibility for gender inequality by providing an environment that allows women to achieve the same level of success as men–whatever that success may be to the individual. Raising children is the responsibility of all, i.e., both mothers and fathers, and the society in which they live. The future depends on our children.

THE U.S. & CHINA

Both America and China need to change. Both are making authoritarian errors that are unnecessarily threatening world comity, human progress, and the potential for peaceful coexistence. This seems simple on its face but hard in reality.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

THE THIRD REVOLUTION (Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State)

BREAKNECK (China’s Quest to Engineer the Future)

Authors: Elizabeth C. Economy, Dan Wang

Narration by: Anna Perrin, Jonathan Yen

Elizabeth Economy
Dan Wang

These two authors were listened to because of their similarities and differences about America’s and China’s political/economic systems. They show some similarity that reinforces their arguments about America’s and China’s economies. Ms. Economy was born in America while Wang was born in Canada. Wang’s parents fled China just before he was born. Ms. Economy is an American political scientist, foreign policy analyst, and noted expert on China’s politics and foreign policy. Wang, as a son of Chinese parents, is a Canadian technology analyst and writer. Ms. Economy is a co-chair of a program on the US, China economic/political studies at the Hoover Institution. Wang is a visiting scholar and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

America/China-Worlds Apart?

These authors analytic approach to the political economy of America and China are viewed from different perspectives. Ms. Economy approaches the Chinese economy from a governance and global strategy perspective, while Mr. Wang views America’s and China’s economies from a technological and manufacturing perspective.

Ms. Economy explains how Xi has centralized power that is reshaping China’s institutions and extending China’s global influence. Xi recognizes a level of greed and corruption that infected communist functionaries and began firing many of the party leaders to restore his vision of the ideals of communism. In contrast, Wang focuses on an engineering mentality of Chinese governance and its strategy to make China the most powerful nation in the world.

Example of China’s largest production automobile, the BYD.

Ms. Economy shows strategy is not enough to make China, or for that matter, America great. She notes great advances China has made but criticizes the quality of China’s industrial production, i.e., particularly an auto industry that has become the largest in the world but with many product features that fail its buyers. There are safety, quality, durability, and reliability criticisms of China’s cars. BYD is one of China’s strongest brands. As an example, China recalled an estimated 110,000 electric vehicles due to battery defects. In 2024, 32 million vehicles have been produced in China. Its closest competitor is America which only produced an estimated 10.5 million vehicles.

“The Wealth of Nations” is about politics as an essential ingredient of economics.

Both authors agree that China is a deeply state-driven economy. However, Ms. Economy suggests China’s strengths and weaknesses are based on political ideology while Wang argues it is because of China’s focus on engineering and technology. This seems a “Potato-Pototo” argument that leaves a reader feeling there is little difference, i.e., China’s power and growth is limited by its system of governance with technology being only a part of its strength and weakness. The same is true of all forms of government, including democracy.

The risk of authoritarian power.

Ms. Economy notes the fragility of China’s authoritarian political power that refuses to allow openness to citizen opinion about new projects or ideas that change their lives. In contrast, Wang notes America’s failure to capitalize on engineering and the capitalist capabilities of America’s economy because of too many lawyers. Wang explains America’s resistance to economic growth is constrained by a lawyer mentality of “not in my backyard”. In contrast China’s economic growth ignores human impact of projects (like dams) that displace millions of Chinese citizens without political voice. Both authors seem correct with the implication of a solution that is within the capabilities of both systems of government, i.e., China should become more concerned about its citizens welfare and America should invest in public works that benefit all Americans.

The digital age magnifies power and influence.

The two authors see different solutions for America’s and China’s quest for world influence. Ms. Economy argues America needs to compete with China’s global ambitions by using some of the same financial and political investments that demonstrate the value of capitalism over authoritarianism. Wang agues engineering, manufacturing, and industrial capacity must be reinvented in the U.S. Some may argue that is what Trump is trying to do but many would argue he fails to make a distinction between technological growth and polluting industrialization. Both America and China need to change. Both are making authoritarian errors that are unnecessarily threatening world comity, human progress, and the potential for peaceful coexistence. This seems simple on its face but hard in reality.

RUSSIA

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY (A Very Short Introduction)

Author: Richard Connolly

Narration by: John Pruden

Richard Connolly (British author, Associate fellow at the Centre for New American Security (CNAS) in Washington D.C., former director of the Centre for Russian, European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Birmingham.)

Richard Connolly offers a brief and informative overview of Russia’s economic growth from the days of Stalin through today. He explains Russia’s economy has grown into a blend of state control and market demand that became the 20th century’s USSR. The common objective of every Russian leader since the 1917 revolution is stabilization of the country and any territory they rule. From the early days of Lenin and Stalin there is the goal of transitioning Russia from an agrarian lifestyle to an industrial power that could compete with other nations. In the process of that decision and from the spoils of WWII Russia became the USSR.

The goal of industrializing Russia for what became the U.S.S.R. is to create a powerful nation-state, by any means necessary, to compete with and/or dominate other nations. The shortest road for an agrarian nation to become an industrial power is dictatorship which fit the personality of Lenin’s successor, Joseph Stalin.

Joseph Stalin (1878-1953, General Secretary of the Communist Party 1922-1952.)

Stalin is a born martinet. He views Russia’s agrarian workers without concern for human or economic cost to turn their labor to industry with the intent of creating a military/industrial power. He redirects Russia’s people to work for the betterment of the state. At the same time, Stalin transitions farm laborers to industrial workers managed by government apparatchiks. Five-year plans are created by the government. Those who fail to achieve five-year plan goals are punished. Agriculture is forcibly collectivized and controlled by the government. The methodology Stalin uses to industrialize Russia is repeated in countries Russia claims after World War II.

Russia’s WWII Victory.
Hardship of those dominated by Russia after WWII.
Murder Room in the Baltics
Russian Jail in the Baltics
Baltics Jail
Jail toilet

The hardship one hears in traveling to Poland and the Baltics opens one’s eyes to the terrible experience their citizens endure from Stalin’s rule. The revenue from agricultural and mineral production goes to the State for purchase of machinery to industrialize Russia and newly acquired territories after the defeat of Nazi Germany in WWII. Thousands die of starvation because of Stalin’s ambition. Economic independence is not tolerated, either in agriculture or industry. Stalin focuses on steel, coal, and machinery to transform the economy. Living standards of workers is of no concern with goals that must be met. Profitability, consumer needs, and human life are sacrificed with the singular goal of maximizing industrial production.

The Soviet economy advanced because of Stalin’s political goals. Stalin’s goals are state security and survival. Human cost is no concern. Those who opposed Stalin’s goals were either suppressed, tortured, or killed as enemies of the State. Stalin rules for 29 years, from 1924 until his death in 1953. Stalin achieves enormous strategic economic gains by building a heavy-industrial, militarized economy that gave Russia, then the USSR, great-power status. Despite his methodology and the duplicity of Stalin’s early support of Hitler in WWII, Russia became a critical world power with the defeat of Nazi Germany. For that success, the world owes some measure of gratitude for an amoral and inhumane tyrant.

Nikita Khrushchev (1894-1971, Secy. of the communist party 1953-1964)

When Khrushchev came to power after Stalin’s death, he shifts Stalin’s model of governance to a more sustainable, technologically oriented system for Russia to remain a superpower. Khrushchev rebalances the Soviet economy in a way that keeps Russia militarily competitive and capable of global engagement. He shifted the economy toward science, technology, and space exploration. One is reminded of Russia’s Sputnik moment. Technology became a core component of economic power. Khrushchev moves Russia toward consumer welfare to illustrate his belief in the superiority of socialism. Connolly suggests Khrushchev began raising the living standards of the Russian people. The Soviet Union became more of an international partner by aiding other countries, selling arms to other countries, and using trade and technical assistance as a geopolitical influencer. Brezhnev solidified the vision of socialism as a stable and predictive governmental system. However, the Russia economy became less dynamic in the modernizing world. In the 1980s, the Russian economy falters.

Yuri Andropov (1982-1984 General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, born in 1914-died in 1984.)

When Brezhnev dies in 1982, Yuri Andropov becomes the General Secretary of the Communist Party. In his short tenure, he revives discipline in governance of Russia by fighting corruption and trying to improve Russia’s economy. Andropov’s tenure is short, approximately 15 months. Andropov wished Mikhail Gorbachev to succeed him, but the Politburo chose Chernenko who only served for 13 months.

Konstantin Chernenko (General Secretary of the Communist Party 1984-1984, born in 1911-died in 1985.)

Chernenko’s successor is Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev transformed the USSR. He ended the Cold War and reduced hostility toward the West. He received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990. On the one hand he democratized Soviet politics but on the other he unintentionally triggered the collapse of the U.S.S.R. Gorbachev’s replacement is Boris Yeltsin who effectively dismantled Russia’s planned economy and opens Russia to global markets. His short tenure is chaotic, but it creates a foundation that leads to Putin’s reign.

“The Russian Economy” is written before Putin invades Ukraine. Putin reasserts the Russian government’s control over the economy.

Energy, defense, and finance are state controlled. In a sense, Putin returns to something like the rule of Stalin. Putin chooses to reorient Russia toward Asia rather than the United States. Putin rebuilt Russia’s wartime military capabilities. However, Connolly argues Putin fails to diversify or modernize Russia’s economy. He has successfully created a durable, state-centered model of government with geopolitical power, but economic prosperity seems, at best, a faltering work in progress. Connolly believes Russia will be able to withstand pressure from the West with its nuclear capability and economic power. Connolly believes Russia will survive its present semi-isolation. Connolly believes the State will remain the central actor in Russia’s future with (at least a near term) orientation toward Asia rather than the West.

AI RISK

The essence of Rickard’s book is that the use of GPT is a threat to the financial world and to world peace. If the war on Iran continues, there is increased risk of wider conflict, further financial stress, reduced human judgement, and greater potential for world conflagration in a nuclear war.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

MONEY GPT (AI and the Threat to the Global Economy)

Author: James Rickards

Narration by: James Rickards

James G. Rickards (Author, American lawyer, investment banker, media commentator.)

Though Mr. Rickards has something valuable to tell his audience, his writing leaves room for improvement. The initials “GPT” stand for “Generative Pre-trained Transformer”. They are an abbreviation for massive datasets gathered by artificial intelligence to aid one’s understanding of complex predictions about finance and military conflict based on collected language used to explain the world.

Languages of the world.

What Rickards intellectually recognizes is that collected language about the real world lacks human judgement which can accelerate human actions, weaponize misinformation, and increase conflict because AI lacks human reasoning. Without judgement, facts imparted by language collection may as quickly make wrong as right decisions. Optimum answers to complex problems require human judgement. Optimum answers may be aided by AI collated language, but human judgement is key to appropriate action. Rickards notes how stock market investors who rely on AI for decisions about what to do with their investments can as easily be misled when the market is in crisis because collected language is as likely to lead one further into crisis as toward a reasoned investment response.

Like the bombing of Dresden in WWII, today’s America is senselessly bombing Iran.

Rickard explains a financial decision based on GPT carries the same threat in regard to war. One wonders whether President Trump’s escalation of the war on Iran is not based on GPT that compresses decisions and amplifies the volatility of America’s actions. Is the war escalating because of GPT and inadequate human judgement? America is faced with incomplete information on a purpose for bombing Iran and what goals are intended for ending the conflict. What GPT predicts is more U.S. strikes, further Iranian retaliation, and prolonged conflict that will continue to roil the economies and citizens of the world. Regional war, let alone a World War, is increasingly likely to cause a global shock to financial markets.

Uses of GTP aka GPT.

The essence of Rickard’s book is that the use of GPT is a threat to the financial world and to world peace. If the war on Iran continues, there is increased risk of wider conflict, further financial stress, reduced human judgement, and greater potential for world conflagration in a nuclear war.