Category: WAR

Ukrainian Independence

Trofimov argues Ukraine will survive Russia’s invasion and remain a sovereign nation, but it will remain a long struggle. Considering the age of Putin, i.e., he is 73, and growing discontent of some Russian oligarchs, the war may be ended sooner rather than later.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Our Enemies Will Vanish (The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence) 

Author: Yaroslav Trofimoy

Narration by: David Furr

Yaroslav Trofimov (Author, Ukrainian-born Italian author and journalist, foreign correspondent.)

“Our Enemies Will Vanish” is a brutal eyewitness account of the beginning of Russia’s invasion and war in Ukraine. Yaroslav Trofimov explains why Putin fails to achieve a takeover and annexation of Ukraine despite having an overwhelming military and economic advantage. Putin had a well provisioned and professional military force. Trofimov’s book is an insightful follow up on Karatnycky’s history of Ukraine’s leadership in “Battleground Ukraine”. Trofimov reminds one of the role Viktor Yanukovchy played in surreptitiously aiding Russia’s takeover of Crimea. Yanukovchy had fled to Russia and was waiting to return to the Presidency of Ukraine when and if Russia won the war. Having read “Battleground…” Ukraine’s resistance owes a debt to former President Yuschenko’s role in reinforcing a pro-Western leaning of Ukraine’s citizens. At the same time, Petro Proshenko (President of Ukraine before Zelensky) is shown to be equally important for having begun the rebuilding of Ukraine’s military.

Frenemies are defined as people who look friendly on the surface but contain underlying rivalry, and distrust.

Trofimov clearly explains why Putin fails to takeover Ukraine. He underestimated the capabilities of Ukrainian resistance. Putin’s predilection for complete control of the invasion created ground action confusion that could not adapt to circumstances of Ukrainian resistance. Russia’s ground forces could not effectively coordinate their actions because of Putin’s insistence on direct command and control. In contrast, the Ukrainian leadership made decisions based on ground circumstances rather than centralized command and control. Putin clearly underestimated Ukraine’s national awakening. The early atrocities of Bucha and Irpin where 400 civilians were murdered and many were imprisoned and tortured are examples of Russia’s brutal tactics. The heavy shelling of Irpin destroyed neighborhoods, homes, and schools. Satellite imagery and eyewitness accounts reinforced Ukraine’s moral and political resolve to defend their country.

Access to drugs for infection are a concern for Ukranian fighters.

Trofimov characterizes Russia’s attack of Mariupol as an attempt to “wipe a city off the face of the earth”. He vivifies the scale of destruction with a view of residential districts that are flattened, civilians are left without food, water, or heat and hospitals, theaters, and shelters are bombed. If one is wounded in combat, Ukrainians have no access to drugs to treat infection. A relatively minor wound could become a death sentence. Nevertheless, Mariupol became a heroic last stand and a symbol of Ukraine’s resolve to remain free of Russian occupation.

The brutality and slaughter of war is clearly brought to a reader/listener’s attention by Trofimov. The atrocity in Bucha occurs early in the Russian invasion. Families hide in basements without heat or electricity. People are shot with their bodies left in the street as Russians begin moving house to house to take food, phones, and whatever they wanted. Men who were captured were interrogated and tortured. Citizens were executed at checkpoints for being suspected of helping local Ukrainians. Door to door killings and summary executions were made on all who were viewed as enemies of Russia. Russian troops were spreading systemic terror to control the population. The immorality of war is brought home in Russia’s Bucha campaign. In Trofimov’s opinion, Bucha is an example of why Putin will fail to remake Ukraine a part of Russia.

Trofimov suggests Zelensky’s wartime leadership became critically important for the survival of Ukraine.

Trofimov argues Zelensky’s personal bravery changed the course of the war. One remembers the video of Zelensky on American TV standing with fellow Ukrainians saying, “we are all here” in Kyiv. He believes Zelensky united Ukrainian society against Putin’s invasion. He rejects evacuation offers, maintains government continuity, and enlists the Western world in resistance to Russia’s invasion. Trofimov feels Zelensky’s leadership became critically important for the survival of Ukraine as an independent nation.

Kraken fighters in Ukraine.

The creation of what becomes known as the Kraken fighters illustrates the ferocity, professionalization, and psychology of volunteer Ukrainian fighters in comparison to Russian conscripts. The Kraken unit’s utilization of urban combat and high-risk operations contribute to many of Ukraine’s territorial reversals of Russian land confiscations. Ukraine’s military competence grows with the Kraken’s successes. Though the Kraken were not the largest Ukrainian warrior group, they were a unit from Kharkiv that motivated frontline fighters.

Mariupol occupation by Russia.

Trofimov does not ignore the territorial gains made by Russia in their invasion of Ukraine. Their early success in Eastern Ukraine is stalled despite their gains. They did capture Mariupol, but it became a symbol of Russia’s brutality that hardened Ukrainian resistance. The Russians capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in 2022 and inflict a great deal of damage on Ukrainian infrastructure. However, Trofimov argues these were tactical, not strategic successes. Importantly, Trofimov notes Kyiv is not captured, Ukrainian morale has been maintained, and the West’s support remains strong. He believes Ukraine will ultimately retain its independence.

Ukraine’s fight for independence.

Trofimov argues Ukraine will survive Russia’s invasion and remain a sovereign nation, but it will remain a long struggle. Considering the age of Putin, i.e., he is 73, and growing discontent of some Russian oligarchs, the war may be ended sooner rather than later. Men like Andrey Meinichenko, one of Russia’s richest men, and several others complain about high interest rates and the war’s economic strain on Russia. It is not that they are anti-Putin, but they have economic interests that are being challenged by the war. One wonders how long Putin will last if the Ukraine war continues.

BATTLEGROUND UKRAINE

A reader/listener of “Battleground Ukraine” infers Putin will fail because of Russia’s flagging economy and weakening military. The Ukraine war may go on for many more months, but its economic devastation and human deaths will end with Ukraine as a sovereign country, and presumably, a Russia with a different President.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Battleground Ukraine (From Independence to the War with Russia) 

Author: Adrian Karatnycky

Narration by: Daniel Henning

Adrian Karatnycky (Author, Ukrainian American political analyst.)

“Battleground Ukraine” is an important history of the transition of Ukraine from being part of the U.S.S.R. to an independent nation-state. The author offers a chronological political history of Ukraine’s drive for independence after glasnost. Karatnycky outlines the achievements and setbacks of three decades and six leadership changes in Ukraine’s Government. He shows nation-building is no easy task for a country that is split between desire for independence and a history of Soviet Union domination.

In researching the qualification of Adrian Karatnycky, one finds he is considered a leading analyst who has written about Ukraine in publications like Foreign Policy, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, and National Review.

Adrian Karatnycky is characterized as a Ukrainian American political analyst, and a democracy advocate for Ukraine. He is a managing partner of a consulting firm representing clients with interests in Ukraine. He co-founded a cultural initiative to promote positive relations between Ukrainians and Jews and has studied Russian Ukrainian’ relations, written a number of articles about Ukrainian human rights, political freedoms, and its development as a civil society. He understands and speaks English and Ukrainian, and presumably Russian.

Leonid Kraychuk (1991-1994, First President of Ukraine)

His book is informative but complicated because of unfamiliarity with most of the six leaders of Ukraine after its separation from the U.S.S.R. The first president of independent Ukraine is Leonid Kravchuk (1991-1994). Kravchuk presided over the breakup and helped establish the independent nation of Ukraine. According to this history, Kravchuk seems reluctant to create a decisive break with the Soviet-era experience. The authoritarian habits of administration led to the blossoming of oligarchic networks in Ukraine that resemble the oligarchs who control the Russian economy under Putin today. The growth of Ukraine as a relatively free capitalist country is sidelined by Kravchuk’s rule. Nevertheless, Kravchuk’s administration appears to have accomplished the break from the U.S.S.R. without civil war.

Leonid Kuchma (1994-2004, Second President of Ukraine.)

The second leader of Ukraine is Leonid Kuchma (1994-2004). The author notes Kuchma accepted the growth and corruption of oligarchs in Ukraine. In some sense, the economy stabilized under Kuchma’s rule while improving ties with Russia and even the West. However, authoritarianism is reinforced by a cadre of oligarchs that corrupt Ukrainian society and enrich themselves while reinforcing attachment to Russia.

Viktor Yushchenko (2005-2010, Third President of Ukraine.)

The third leader is Viktor Yushchenko (2005-2010). In 2004, the Orange Revolution begins in Ukraine with nationwide protests, civil disobedience, and political mobilization against oligarchic rule in Ukraine. Kuchma is replaced by Yushchenko as a result of a Ukrainian Supreme Court ruling that demands a new vote. That vote results in the election of Yushchenko. Yushchenko is characterized by Karatnycky as a pro-Western democrat. He allows Ukraine media to remain free by not repressing its citizens. However, Yushchenko is characterized as a political failure who, at best, creates space for the growth of democracy in Ukraine. Though Crimea is not lost during Yushchenko’s rule because he resisted Russian military expansion, he fails to move his country toward democracy.

Crimea’s annexation by Russia in March 2014.

Russia had a base in Crimea but its role in the invasion and confiscation of Crimean territory expanded with the next Ukrainian President’s administration. At worst, Yushchenko’s political ineptness and weak governance paved the way for a more kleptocratic Ukrainian President named Viktor Yanukovych (2010-2014). As Yushchenko leaves office, Russia lays plans for the invasion of Donbas in 2014.

Viktor Yanukovych (2010-2014, Fourth President of Ukraine.)

Karatnycky views Yanukovych as the latest pro-Russian ruler of Ukraine. Yanukovych uses his position as President to enrich his family and allow Russian intelligence service to infiltrate the Ukrainian government. In the author’s opinion, Yanukovych opened the door to Russian aggression which led Russia to surreptitiously invade Donbas and annex Crimea. Karatnycky infers Putin launches the Donbas incursion as a result of a power vacuum created by Yanukovych who flees Kyiv on February 22, 2014. Crimea is annexed by Russia on February 23, 2014. The Donbas incursion begins in April 2014.

Ukrainian corruption during the Yanukovych presidency.

By a slim margin of 3.5% Yanukovych won the Ukrainian presidency in 2010. He escapes to Russia in February 2014 after ordering a violent crackdown on Ukrainian protesters. Karatnycky’s assessment of Yanukovych is highly negative. He argues Yanukovych centralized Presidential power, weakened independent institutions, persecuted political opponents, and drew the government closer to Putin’s Russia. He defeated Uylia Tymoshenko, a pro-Western leader, who is imprisoned in 2011 during the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Yanukovych remains in Russia today and is convicted in absentia for treason in aiding Russia during his term in office.

Petro Poroshenko (2014-2019, Fifth President of Ukraine.)

After Russia’s incursion in Donbas, Ukraine elects Petro Poroshenko (2014-2019). Karatnycky suggests Poroshenko recognizes Ukraine’s military has to be rebuilt because of Yanukovych’s neglect. Poroshenko turns to the West for support in the battles occurring in Donbas. His appeal is answered with U.S. and EU backing that secures sanctions against Russia. Ukraine increases NATO cooperation to make Ukraine a frontline for democracy. As a delaying tactic, in Karatnycky’s opinion, ceasefires were agreed to by Poroshenko in order to give Ukraine more time to rebuild its military. In the author’s opinion, Porshenko did not break Ukraine’s oligarchic power, but he secured Western support of Ukraine and rebuilt the army which strengthens Ukraine’s national identity. Karatnycky characterizes Poroshenko’s rule as a true beginning transition of Ukraine from authoritarian to democratic government. However, Kartnycky notes the judicial system and established oligarch’ influence continues to obstruct democratic ideals. Further, Russia’s Donbas battles with Ukraine continue through his administration.

Russia’s Donbas battles with Ukraine continue through Poroshenko’s administration.

Finally, we get to the election of Volodymry Zelensky in 2019. Karatnycky sees Zelensky as a pre-war and wartime President. Zelensky’s successful election is shocking considering the author’s assessment of Poroshenko’s successes in transitioning Ukraine to a world recognized democratic rather than authoritarian government. Zelensky, a comic actor, soundly defeats Poroshenko in the election of 2019. Zelensky appears completely out of his element in becoming President of Ukraine. He struggles with political reform and shows an ineptitude in dealing with political infighting. Karatnycky describes Zelensky as “…well-intentioned but inexperienced naïve in his first two years as President. However, as Russia chooses to invade Ukraine, the wartime Zelensky becomes a unifying national leader. His experience as an actor/comedian makes him a master communicator. Zelensky becomes a wartime decision maker that gathers Western support for the defense of his country. Zelensky overcomes his political shortcomings in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky manages to unite Ukraine against a much larger enemy despite the economic stagnation of the Ukrainian economy.

Volodymry Zelensky (President of Ukraine 2019-?)

It Karatnycky’s opinion, Ukraine will survive Russia’s invasion and will remain a sovereign country. A reader/listener of “Battleground Ukraine” infers Putin will fail because of Russia’s flagging economy and weakening military. The Ukraine war may go on for many more months, but its economic devastation and human deaths will end with Ukraine as a sovereign country, and presumably, a Russia with a different President.

COLD WAR ORIGINS

Hannah Lucinda Smith’s “Hinterlands” is an eye opener for the uniformed but it’s a bit of a slog for non-historians to absorb.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Hinterlands (The New Cold War Brewing at the Peripheries of the West.) 

Author: Hannah Lucinda Smith

Narration by: Hannah Lucinda Smith

Hannah Lucinda Smith (Author, British journalist based in Istanbul, Turkey. Published in The Times, The Atlantic, Foreign Policy, and wrote “Erdogan Rising”, presumably about the President of Turkey.

Smith has written a complicated book about what she calls “a new cold war”. It is complicated because most people’s knowledge of some of the territories she writes about like Transnistria, Respublika Srpska, and Nagorno-Karabakh are not known by the general public. Of course, she would not have titled her book “Hinterlands” if it only addresses major nations or organizations like Russia, Turkey, China, the EU, NATO, or the U.S.

Today’s conflicts between Russia/Ukraine and America/Iran may turn into world conflagrations. The same might be said of the following countries that make up Smith’s “Hinterlands”. “Hinterlands” is a reminder that there are other conflicts, less well known, that have the same disastrous potential. Smith identifies six low-visibility conflicts that may rise to the level of the Russia/Ukraine and American/Iran wars or worse. They are as follows:

Nagorno‑Karbala

Nagorno-Karabakh became an independent nation between Azerbaijan and Armenia which is just south of Russia, north of Iran, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russia, Turkey, and Iran have dogs in Nagorno-Karabakh’s fight. Nagorno-Karabakh is mostly populated by ethnic Armenians who declared independence which is settled by a war that ended in 1994. The conflict is fed by interference from Russia, Turkey, and Iran that have their own agendas for the people who live in this territory. Russia plays the role of peacekeeper while ironically supplying arms to its citizens. Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan that reluctantly allowed Nagorno/Karabakh’s independence. The author notes Iran has interest in the territory’s independence because of an Azeri ethnic population in Iran that is larger than the Armenian population in Nagorno Karabakh. Nagorno Karbakh’s independence creates a kind of jealousy about its ethnic independence versus a larger Azeri minority in the adjacent country of Iran. Of course, this is confusing because it seems more a concern for Iran’s leadership than Nagorno Karabakh’s independence from Azerbaijan. The threat seems that Iran may worry more about an independence drive by Azeri’s in Iranian territory because of the example set by the Azeri’ Armenians in Azerbaijan.

Respublika Srpska (Northern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina.)

Bosnia (Respublika Srpska)

Having traveled to the former Yugoslavia, the ravages of its dismantling may be seen in pockmarked buildings from battles that occurred during Yugoslavia’s dismantling. As Smith notes, there is a Serbian majority inside Bosnia. It identifies itself as Respublika Srpska (RS). This faction wants independence from Bosnia, but the Bosnia constitution forbids it. Russia supports the RS desire for independence. According to Smith, Russia is simply pursuing its desire to see the weakening of Western Institutions which RS’ independence would engender. The RS leader Milorad Dodik is pushing for a referendum for independence. The U.S. pushes for constitutional reform which in one sense puts U.S. on the fence rather than being for or against independence. Serbia supports RS ambitions. The EU is not unified in an opinion either for or against independence. Turkey supports Bosnia’s RS’ desire because of their Muslim religion and Erdojan’s hope for Putin’s continued economic support of Turkey. This seems resolvable but it has the makings for a hot war if independence is denied by Bosnia’s government. If independence is achieved, the concern will be for the minorities that choose to remain in a newly independent Serbian country. (As noted, this is an example of Smith’s complicated history.)

Kosovo.

Kosovo

The fight for independence is always a potential flashpoint for unrest that can widen into war between internal as well as outside nation-state interference. Outside interference can be based on economic, religious, or strategic interests of outside nation-state powers. Russia, Turkey, and Iran as immediate neighbors may call on any of these reasons to interfere and spark a wider confrontation and consequence in their region of interest.

Transnistria

Transnistria is a little-known de facto breakaway from Moldova that is not recognized by the international community.

Smith explains Transnistria is a region that broke away from Moldova when the USSR collapsed. Smith notes Russia protects its independence as a Russian client territory. She notes Russian troops are stationed in Transnistria while its existence is subsidized by the Russian government. It is a strategic foothold for Russia in their plan to takeover Ukraine. It is a conflict zone that remains a part of the nation of Moldova, under the control of Putin with Transnistria’s own government made up of a president, parliament, and military. It is a potential flashpoint in the Russian/Ukraine war.

Crimea / broader Ukraine conflict

Crimea annexation by Russia from the nation-state of Ukraine.

Crimea remains un unresolved border problem in Smith’s view of Soviet occupation. When the USSR dissolved, Crimea became a part of an independent Ukraine. Smith notes Russia has made immense financial investments in Crimea to lure its citizens to become a part of Putin’s Russia. Obviously, Crimea is a potential conflict in the making because of its former existence as a part of Ukraine. One wonders how Russian influence will affect Crimea’s interest in being a part of Russia or Ukraine in the future.

Turkey–Kurdish regions (Syria/Iraq)

There is concern about the influence of a Kurdish separatist movement that might spread from Syria and Iraq to Turkey.

Turkey has already created a military footprint in Syria and Iraq. Turkey has had several violent conflicts with the PKK, a Kurdish militant group that is classified as a terrorist organization that has caused thousands of deaths and conducted military operations in southeastern Turkey beginning in 2015 and continuing through 2016. That terrorism began long before the election of Erdogan. The Kurds seek their own nation-state, which was proposed back in 1920, after WWI. However, the disparate beliefs of Kurd’ factions make nation building and independence a tough objective to achieve. They allege a wish for autonomy, local democracy, pluralism, and decentralized governance whether living in Syria, Iraq, or Turkey. Of course, they are not the only ethnic group in each of these countries and the PKK’s objectives conflict with existing territorial governments. For various reasons ranging from different Kurdish beliefs to the existence of existing governments, the Kurds remain stateless and a threat to Syria’s, Iraq’s, and Turkey’s governments.

In the end reward is destroyed by the selfishness of each against the other.

Hannah Lucinda Smith’s “Hinterlands” is an eye opener for the uniformed but it’s a bit of a slog for non-historians to absorb.

IRAN

Torbati believes ordinary Iranians, especially Gen Z women, will change Iran’s history. One is reminded of the Yiddish expression “From your lips to God’s ears” because Torbati’s history of Iran is far from encouraging.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Stolen Revolution (Betrayal and Hope in Modern Iran) 

Author: Yeganeh Torbati & 1 more

Narration by: Nikki Massoud

Yeganeh Torbati (American author, award winning journalist who is fluent in Farsi, Spanish, and English, earned a BA in political science and Middle Eastern studies from Yale.)

In listening to “Stolen Revolution” one wonders about the objectivity of its author. Because Ms. Torbati is born in America; one is reserved about her objectivity about Iran’s transition from an autocratic country ruled by a king to one that became a theocratic republic ruled by an equally autocratic Muslim cleric. It is difficult for we who are born in America to understand what the truth may be about the true feelings of people who have lived all their life in Iran.

The influence of religion on government.

Though America is not considered a Christian nation, it is deeply influenced by belief in a Christian God. Of course, America is founded on the importance of separation of Church and State which makes cultural influence of theocratic leadership unlikely if not impossible. The influence of one raised in America challenges one’s objectivity in analyzing the history of a country led by a theocratic autocrat. However, Ms. Torbati, in contrast to most Americans, knows the language of the country on which she reports. Further, her Iranian ancestry undoubtedly gives her a better understanding of Iran’s culture.

In recognition of the author’s reporting of Iranian opposition to Ayatollah leadership, a reader/listener is bound to give respect to her evidence of citizen resistance. Her reporting reinforces much of what we read and hear from news reports about Iran’s opposition to women’s rights and freedom of movement. The complaints of voter fraud have been noted by other writers about Iran’s Green Movement in 2009 and later public protests. Torbati’s profile of Hila Sedighi, a poet and activist in Iran, shows her poetry reflects on the shattered hopes and dreams of many Iranians in an election campaign that undermined women’s rights. Tobarti outlines two egregious voter frauds in the two terms of office for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a shill for the Ayatollah.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Elected twice under suspicious voter fraud allegations.)

With the undoubted help of the Supreme Leader’s manipulation of the 2005 and 2009 elections there were more voters for Ahmadinejad than there were people to vote in respective districts. Election competitors like Mehdi Karroubi turned against the Ayatollahs’ leadership because of obvious voter misrepresentations. It became impossible for an independent to be elected.

Autocracy may evolve in any form of government.

With reservations, this book review of “Stolen Revolution” is unlikely to be objective. America is presently being led by an autocrat who is marginally constrained by the checks and balances of America’s government. America’s current President chooses to act as though checks and balances are challengeable by one person’s judgement. The bombing of Iran shows the weakness of an autocrat’s decision; i.e. a fault apparent in Iran as well as America.

America’s bombing of Iran’s Qasim Island water plant on March 7, 2026.

Here stands America as the instigator of a war with a country it cannot or chooses not to understand. The Ayatollahs who replaced Iran’s autocratic king, have not succeeded in establishing a viable economic theocracy. The discontent and poverty of a large part of the Iranian population is revealed by Torbati’s history. How much of that poverty is caused by the Western world’s rejection of Iran is not clearly explained by Torbati’s history. She implies it is largely because of the rule of the Ayatollahs and their theocratic beliefs. She argues Iran is driven by clerical crony capitalism with clerical elites enriching themselves and the military by discouraging private enterprise.

Iran’s military.

Torbati infers Iran’s military has become a construction arm of Iran supported by the Ayatollahs. Citizen taxation is used as a bludgeon to discourage private enterprise while enriching the government and the military. Through personal clerical corruption and favoritism, with the use and support of the military, Iran has failed its citizens. Leadership of Iran confiscated private companies, restricted access to foreign expertise, and created fear and paranoia among its people. The Ayatollahs cultivated a military state by using it as a stabilizing force to repress the public while being the backbone of employment and construction activity as a substitute for private business growth. Torbati argues the government of Iran is more interested in self-preservation than the welfare of its citizens.

Ali Khamenei (Supreme leader of Iran Killed by American bombing on February 28, 2026)

Torbati’s history of Iran is not encouraging. She suggests the Islamic Republic will remain focused on preserving itself with military support more than improving the lives of the majority of its citizens. Torbati implies foreign intervention will not break Iran’s system of government. Iran’s leadership will only change if ordinary citizens, not just the elites of government, are able to influence the course of their economy. She argues Gen Z women, reformist activists, and discontented businessmen will eventually change Iranian leadership. Torbati implies external intervention will not determine Iran’s future.

An estimated 326 Iranians were killed in Iran’s November 2022 protest.

As history suggests the road to success is not a path you find, but a trail you blaze. Iran’s future is dependent upon the citizens of Iran; i.e., not foreign impositions, wars, or demands of foreign governments. Torbati believes ordinary Iranians, especially Gen Z women, will change Iran’s history. One is reminded of the Yiddish expression “From your lips to God’s ears” because Torbati’s history of Iran is far from encouraging.

WHO’S CHOKING

Economic chokepoints illustrated by Fishman are real, but their effectiveness is problematic.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Chokepoints (American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare)

Author: Edward Fishman

Narration by: Robert Petkoff

Edward Fishman (American author, international relations scholar, former diplomat at the Council on Foreign Relations, professor of Public Affairs at Columbia, University.)

Edward Fishman offers a detailed history of economic “Chokepoints” that have become a tool of war between nation-states. He reminds readers of Trump’s first term as President of the United States. Trump did not change from policies he believed in his first term. He only became more effective in carrying out his beliefs in his second term.

Trump’s beliefs.

Fishman shows how Trump combines the tactics of warfare with economic chokepoints to decimate Iranian cities while starving its citizens of their right to believe and live. Trump is convinced of the potential of Iran’s current leadership to use weapons of nuclear war to destroy civilization because of religious belief. Trump chooses to bomb Iran while expanding economic policies instituted by both Democratic and Republican administrations to choke petroleum revenues from a country that provides 20% of the world’s oil needs.

Like the bombing of Dresden in WWII, today’s America is senselessly bombing Iran.

Trump is waging a war on the singular belief that he can force Iran to abandon research for a nuclear bomb. The consequence is to embroil America in a war of attrition and destruction based on Trump’s belief that Iran’s leadership is willing to use nuclear war to end life on earth for a place in heaven. Trump’s actions are deluded idea of a “bully in a school yard”. Denying nuclear bomb development by force is a fool’s errand. North Korea, Russia, China, and America are as likely to instigate a nuclear war as Iran. Religious belief is Trump’s excuse; not a cause for war.

Iranian citizen protest.

It is the citizens of Iran that bare the consequence of America’s chokepoint decisions.

Fishman explains how economic chokepoints have becomes as devastating as war. The Iranian people have been impoverished by American allies’ cooperation in restricting their economy. It may be, like the physical war against Germany and Japan in WWII, economic chokepoints will make Iran bend its knee. On the other hand, it may continue a “forever war” that only diminishes humanity. Chokepoints are a war by other means that offer compromise, or dictatorship. Chokepoint effects are poverty, death, or compromise. Religion, like political belief, is a personal choice that cannot be eradicated by force.

Effects of human descent.

Economic chokepoints illustrated by Fishman are real, but their effectiveness is problematic. First, one must identify the economic target that is affective. Second, there must be unity and credibility among nations that can enforce a chokepoint. Even with a chosen chokepoint, the target may make citizens willing to sacrifice everything for belief in sovereignty.

CONSCIOUSNESS & AI

A.I. is a tool of human beings and will always be a tool. If Pollan is right that human thought originates with emotion, A.I. regulation, and transparency must be aligned with human values of truth, right conduct, peace, and non-violence. If A.I. is used for military or authoritarian advantage, it may lead to the Armageddon of biblical prediction.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

A World Appears (A Journey into Consciousness)

Author: Michael Pollan

Narration by: Michael Pollan

Michael Pollan (American journalist, author, Lecturer at Harvard University, co-founded the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, received an M.A. in English from Columbia.)

Pollan is not a scientist, but he is a writer who has an opinion about consciousness based on detailed interviews with scientists and consciousness researchers. He defines consciousness as the subjective experience of being alive. Pollan interviews mainstream and recognized researchers like Roland Griffiths, and Robin Carhart-Harris while avoiding fringe theorists. He interviews scientists who are empirically grounded by experimental testing.

Roland Griffiths (Deceased American psychopharmacologist.)
Robin Carhart-Harris (British psychopharmacologist & Professor of Neurology.)
Giulio Tononi (Italian psychiatrist & neuroscientist.)
Stanislas Dehaene (French cognitive neuroscientist.)
Thomas Nagel (Retired American philosopher.)

Pollan also reads the works of Tononi, a neuroscientist who investigates “Integrated Information Theory”, Dahaene, a neuroscientist who researched “Global Neuronal Workspace Theory, and Thomas Nagel, a philosopher who coined the phrase “hard problem of consciousness”. He attacks the subject from multiple angles with experimental research done by plant and animal neurobiologists, AI researchers, and psychologists. What Pollan concludes from his interviews is that consciousness is the felt experience of being alive. This broad conception takes in all life based on interviews Pollan has with many science experts and philosophers who work in broad fields of human, plant, and animal life.

Stefano Mancuso (Italian botanist and writer, a professor at the University of Florence and the director of the International Laboratory of Plant Neurobiology.)

Stefano Mancuso explains vineyard-like plants exhibit consciousness in their drive for growth and survival with roots that behave with “swarm intelligence” to detect a pole nearby. A vinery’s root tips communicate with each other and make a collective decision to grow in a particular direction. Though this process is slower than in the animal kingdom, Mancuso’s experiments show vines preternaturally use their root systems to reach out to a planted pole to improve their growth through photosynthesis. The point of Pollan’s observation about plants is that a brain and neurons may not be required to show and sustain life, but plants appear to exhibit intelligence and sentience without a brain or animal-like nervous system. Plants seem to live without thought or emotion.

The easy part of consciousness is observed cause and effect. The hard part is knowing where cause comes from and why it arises in the first place.

Based on Pollan’s interviews of scientists and philosophers, he develops a central argument that animal/human consciousness comes from life’s need to maintain stability. However, his argument is that sentience does not come from initiated thoughts but from emotions that generate conscious thought. The implications of that belief are frightening because it may explain why consciousness leads to futile war. If thought process is a follower of emotion, reason plays second fiddle to action. Current events in the world show Pollan may be right. Fear of nuclear annihilation may be the cause of America’s futile war with Iran. Russia’s fear of becoming a lesser hegemonic power may be the cause of Ukraine’s territorial theft. If Pollan is correct, the futility of war will never end with emotion as precursor to thought and action.

Pollan’s interviews with representatives of the science and philosophical communities strongly implies human thought is as likely irrational as rational and may or may not be concerned about survival. The threat of A.I. is that it is used to reinforce the irrationality of emotion as a precursor to thought and action.

“Burn-In” is meant to reveal how human-machine integration challenges human society, both ethically and pragmatically.

What comes to mind is that A.I. might be able to assuage irrational decisions but A.I. is of no help if human thought is initially driven by emotions. A.I. only amplifies the harmful potential of irrational human decisions with thoughts only initiated by emotions. One comes away from Pollan’s book with fear.

Information is energy in today’s A.I. world., just as steam was in the industrial revolution.

Pollan ends “A World Appears” with a journey through philosophy that is interesting but unique to him. Some may become distracted by his personal journey, but his view of consciousness is enlightening and frightening.

A.I. is a tool of human beings and will always be a tool. If Pollan is right that human thought originates with emotion, A.I. regulation, and transparency must be aligned with human values of truth, right conduct, peace, and non-violence. If A.I. is used for military or authoritarian advantage, it may lead to the Armageddon of biblical prediction.

AI RISK

The essence of Rickard’s book is that the use of GPT is a threat to the financial world and to world peace. If the war on Iran continues, there is increased risk of wider conflict, further financial stress, reduced human judgement, and greater potential for world conflagration in a nuclear war.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

MONEY GPT (AI and the Threat to the Global Economy)

Author: James Rickards

Narration by: James Rickards

James G. Rickards (Author, American lawyer, investment banker, media commentator.)

Though Mr. Rickards has something valuable to tell his audience, his writing leaves room for improvement. The initials “GPT” stand for “Generative Pre-trained Transformer”. They are an abbreviation for massive datasets gathered by artificial intelligence to aid one’s understanding of complex predictions about finance and military conflict based on collected language used to explain the world.

Languages of the world.

What Rickards intellectually recognizes is that collected language about the real world lacks human judgement which can accelerate human actions, weaponize misinformation, and increase conflict because AI lacks human reasoning. Without judgement, facts imparted by language collection may as quickly make wrong as right decisions. Optimum answers to complex problems require human judgement. Optimum answers may be aided by AI collated language, but human judgement is key to appropriate action. Rickards notes how stock market investors who rely on AI for decisions about what to do with their investments can as easily be misled when the market is in crisis because collected language is as likely to lead one further into crisis as toward a reasoned investment response.

Like the bombing of Dresden in WWII, today’s America is senselessly bombing Iran.

Rickard explains a financial decision based on GPT carries the same threat in regard to war. One wonders whether President Trump’s escalation of the war on Iran is not based on GPT that compresses decisions and amplifies the volatility of America’s actions. Is the war escalating because of GPT and inadequate human judgement? America is faced with incomplete information on a purpose for bombing Iran and what goals are intended for ending the conflict. What GPT predicts is more U.S. strikes, further Iranian retaliation, and prolonged conflict that will continue to roil the economies and citizens of the world. Regional war, let alone a World War, is increasingly likely to cause a global shock to financial markets.

Uses of GTP aka GPT.

The essence of Rickard’s book is that the use of GPT is a threat to the financial world and to world peace. If the war on Iran continues, there is increased risk of wider conflict, further financial stress, reduced human judgement, and greater potential for world conflagration in a nuclear war.

WORLD INIQUITY

One comes away from Trevor Reed’s book with the feeling he tilted at Don Quixote’s windmill. One’s heart goes out to Ukraine and their fight against an implacable Russian President who tilts at a different windmill.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Retribution (A US Marine’s Fight for Justice, from the Russian Gulag to Ukraine’s Front Lines

Author: Trevor Reed, Jim DeFelice

Narration by: Roger Wayne, Joey Reed

Trevor Reed (on the left) is the subject of Retribution. It is co-written with the novelist Jim DeFelice (on the right).

U.S. Marine infantry.

Trevor Reed is a former Marine infantry soldier who was imprisoned for being drunk and disorderly in Russia. He became a victim of Russia’s hostage exchange system. The story of his young life and how he became a marine and a Ukrainian combatant against Russia is explained in “Retribution”. As a strong-willed youth who challenged parental control, he became an athletic wrestling champion in high school. His disciplined physical work ethic made him a 145 lb. highly self-confident young man who decided (contrary to his father’s council as an ex-marine) to enlist in the marine infantry.

The risk of travel to foreign countries.

Reed’s story of being arrested in Russia is a lesson about the risks of traveling to a foreign country that disagrees with America’s form of government. Reed became romantically involved with a young woman in Russia who he had corresponded with after completing his 4-year commitment in the Marines. Alina Tsybulnik, his Russian girlfriend, visited America, became a friend of his family, and invited Trevor to Russia. They became intimate friends.

Alina Tsybulnik and Trevor Reed.

Tsybulnik is enrolled in a Russian college to become an attorney. When Trevor visits her in Russia, they go out on the town. Trevor gets drunk and disorderly and is arrested by the Russian police in 2019. In what is characterized as a gross exaggeration of Trevor’s actions on their night on the town, Trevor is sentenced to prison for nine years in a Russian penal colony. In April 2022, after three years, Trevor is released in a prisoner exchange.

Trevor Reed’s parents.

Reed shows himself to be a tough-minded person who refuses to cooperate with the Russian prison guards’ orders to work while being unfairly imprisoned in a work camp. He is visited by his father who works to have the Biden administration get his son released. Alina Tsybulnik uses her legal experience with the Russian legal system to get Reed released. The corruption and purpose of incarceration in Russia is shown to be political by Reed’s story. Reed explains how even some Russian administrators, not to mention his girlfriend, resist the political ministrations of the system but are unable to change its policies.

Alexei Navalny, a Russian dissident, is sentenced to an Arctic penal colony and is poisoned. He dies in that Arctic colony at the age of 47 in 2024.

The last chapters of Reed’s book recount his effort to get a level of revenge against Russia’s injustice by volunteering in Ukraine’s war against Russia’s invasion. Reed had become a fluent Russian language user because of his intellect, his relationship with Tsybulnik, and his imprisonment. He used that skill to join the Ukrainian resistance. One comes away from Trevor Reed’s book with the feeling he tilted at Don Quixote’s windmill. One’s heart goes out to Ukraine and their fight against an implacable Russian President who tilts at a different windmill.

COVERT OR OVERT

“The Fort Bragg Cartel” exposes a glaring weakness in a secret service meant to protect American citizens. The ironic truth in Trump’s Iran bombing campaign is that every American has a chance to decide.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Fort Bragg Cartel (Drug Trafficking and Murder in the Special Forces)

Author: Seth Harp

Narration by: Dan John Miller

Seth Harp (Author, investigative journalist, foreign correspondent, contributor to Rolling Stone, Harper’s Magazine, The New York Times, and The New Yorker, former Assistant Attorney General for the State of Texas.)

“The Fort Bragg Cartel” is a frightening look at the gray world of a special forces’ organization that recruits and trains American residents who have undoubtedly aided but also undermined the ideals of justice and freedom in America. Personally, as a military veteran, this is a particularly disappointing story of an important governmental organization in America.

Abdul Saoud Mohamed in 1989.

Ali Mohamed (aka Ali Abdul Saoud Mohamed) was a Fort Bragg soldier, a former Egyptian Army officer who Harp identifies as a man who trained al-Qaeda. Mohamed was a participant in a special program for foreign officers at Fort Bragg in the early 1980s. He enlisted as a U.S. Army soldier at Fort Bragg in the 1980s. Harp infers “…Fort Bragg…” has trained and protected a small minority of soldiers who may have contributed to one of the worst disasters in American history, i.e., the disaster of 9/11 that killed 2,996 people in the collapse of World Trade Center in New York City.

Harp’s story begins with a confrontation between an unstable character named William Lavigne (pictured on the left below) and Freddie Huff, two soldiers trained at Fort Brag. Lavigne pulls a gun and threatens to kill Huff. Huff disarms Lavigne and calls the MPs, but the confrontation is covered up. It illustrates how dangerous Lavigne could be and how the military covers up a confrontation that should lead to an arrest and formal investigation. This incident characterizes a disregard for justice by America’s secret service.

Decorated Delta force operator and Army vet (inset) found murdered on Fort Bragg grounds.

Timothy Moss

The murder of a special force’s operator named William Lavigne II and a quartermaster named Timothy Dumas (inset picture above) is an entangled story of drug use, drug dealing, and weapons trafficking in the American military. A quartermaster is responsible for managing weapons, gear, and equipment for military operations. Lavigne’s fellow special force’s partner is Timothy Dumas Sr., a quartermaster who uses his role to enrich himself and others who have knowledge of his role and intentions. He threatens to blackmail Afghanistan’ special forces operation because of their criminal activity in cocaine smuggling. Lavigne is not in tune with Dumas’s scheme. Whether Lavigne is not in tune because of his own involvement with drug and weapons trafficking in Afghanistan or because of a patriot’s conscience is unknown.

During the Biden administration, Fort Bragg is renamed Fort Liberty. When Trump is re-elected, the name of Fort Bragg is resurrected. Once again, it became Fort Bragg.

Both Lavigne and Dumas are murdered and dumped in a Fort Brag training area. Harp’s investigation of their deaths becomes the story of his book. The author exposes drug use and trafficking networks at Fort Bragg. Harp notes corrupt law-enforcement ties, unsolved deaths, disproportionately high military personnel overdoses, and institutional cover ups at Fort Bragg darken the image of covert actions by the American military. Harp’s story implies criminality is as evident in the military as it is in civilian life. The difference is that there seems little accountability for those who are guilty of drug crimes in the secret service, i.e., at least as shown in this investigation of Fort Bragg.

The flawed nature of human beings.

The military as well as the civilian population of any government are made up of flawed human beings. Those flaws are mitigated by checks and balances designed to protect the general public from the abuse of inherent human rights. Covert and unchecked power in governance is a threat to society because of the nature of human beings. Use of the military as a bully in the playground of nations is psychologically and morally wrong but is proportionately a greater wrong when done covertly.

The Ayatollah of Iran was equally guilty of covert actions against other nations.

The covert actions of both Iran and America in the past are examples of what Harp’s story reveals about the danger of secret military plans and acts. Overt bombing of Iran may either be approved or rejected by the public. There is no chance to decide when governments act covertly and illegally if secret service agents are exempt from prosecution. “The Fort Bragg Cartel” exposes a glaring weakness in a secret service meant to protect American citizens. The ironic truth in Trump’s Iran bombing campaign is that every American has a chance to decide.

TWILIGHT TO SUNLIT

Iran and the U.S. conflicts will likely become more strident and publicly revealed by news headlines than what Crist calls the “Twilight War”. The twilight war has become sunlit.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Twilight War (The Secret History of America’s Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran)

Author: David Crist

Narration by: Peter Berkrot

David Crist (Author, Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve.)

David Crist argues Iran and the U.S. have been in an undeclared war for decades that has been hidden and little understood by the American public. The CIA has been involved in a low-grade conflict with Iran since the late 1970s. Iran’s Quds combatants and proxies from other middle eastern countries have targeted U.S. interests in Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gulf for over 50 years. These conflicts have been cloaked by the use of allied militias and partners of both the United States and Iran. They have rarely been publicly acknowledged. One can reasonably argue today’s bombing of Iran by the United States is a public exposure of what has been happening covertly between Iran and America for many years. At the heart of the conflict is the importance of oil to the economies of the world.

President Trump impedes the influence of freedom in Europe by dismantling surveillance oversight, undermining the EU-U.S. relationship, mishandling America’s data privacy framework, and shutting down the GEC (Global Engagement Center) which is designed to counter foreign disinformation.

Crist alludes to U.S. intelligence actions that supported anti-regime factions that put Ayatollahs in charge of Iran in the 1979 revolution. Though they are characterized as small, fragmented, and ineffective, they represent America’s unsuccessful effort to weaken and/or depose Iran’s Ayatollah. America’s relationship with the Shah of Iran was an illusion in Crist’s opinion. Crist argues American overinvested in the Shah’s rule because of a false belief that Iran would be a shield against Soviet expansion. The perception of the Shah was that he could modernize and stabilize the region with weapons Iran purchased from America. American leaders fail to understand the Shah’s domestic weakness and the importance of Shite belief in the Islamic faith. The misreading of the Shah’s weakness and a widely held belief in Islamic faith led to the rise of Iran as a theocratic state.

Like the bombing of Dresden in WWII, today’s America is senselessly bombing Iran.

American leadership’s ignorance of Iran’s public discontent, the worsening illness of the Shah, and the Islamic belief of the Iranian people create what Crist describes as the “Twilight War”. Up until President Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, the U.S.-Iran relationship was in a gray zone, i.e. neither overtly hostile nor peaceful but a twilight between the dark and light of day. Crist infers the Shah is a bit player representing an ancient culture that no longer works for the Iranian people. The rise of Ayatollahs became Iran’s alternative to a government of a privileged few to what has become an economic crisis for the many. Accepting religious leadership disrupted the King’s royal leadership of Iran and diminished the wealth of most Iranian citizens.

Iranian and American conflicts will likely become more strident and publicly revealed by news headlines than what Crist calls the “Twilight War”. The twilight war has become sunlit.

Crist notes the underlying frustration America has in responding to terrorist’ attacks by agents of Iran or any hostile opponent of America. The terrorist’ bombing that killed 220 U.S. Marines, 21 American service members, and 58 French military personnel in 1983 is never directly responded to by an American military action. President Reagan and his staff could not agree on a military response. The difficulty of determining precisely who was responsible and what would be an equivalent response could not be agreed upon. That scruple seems erased by today’s American President.

Water plant bombed by the U.S. called a desperate and inappropriate act by some who believe American bombing of Iran is a crime.

Because “The Twilight War” is written before Trump’s bombing, the author argues the hostility between Iran and American would continue to be managed by covert operations, proxy clashes, and secret negotiations that will never achieve a formal peace. Oddly, despite Trump’s actions in Iran, it seems Crist’s opinion will continue to be America’s modus vivendi, with a difference. Iran and the U.S. conflicts will likely become more strident and publicly revealed by news headlines than what Crist calls the “Twilight War”. The twilight war has become sunlit.