PRECISION

The human factor is at the heart of perfection with precision as the qualifying characteristic of craftsmanship or technology.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“The Perfectionists” How Precision Engineers Created the Modern World

By: Simon Winchester

Narrated by: Simon Winchester

Simon Winchester (British-American author, journalist, historian.)

Simon Winchester has a remarkable ability to simplify, detail, and vivify history’s complexity. Winchester is not new to this listener. His erudition, writing, and narration are a pleasure to read or hear. His story of the origin of the first Oxford English Dictionary, is a fascinating recollection of Dr. William Minor who shot and killed a stranger on a London street. Dr. Minor was imprisoned in an asylum for his aberrant behavior but became an important source of information for James Murray, the leading lexicographer of the “Oxford English Dictionary”.

“The Perfectionists” is about the advance of the world economy from the perspective of entrepreneurs driven to succeed. Their success, in Winchester’s opinion, is based on understanding and capitalizing on the value of precision.

Though one may go back to the first century to find the first steam engine, it is the invention of James Watt, and the improvements of Matthew Boulton, and Sir Charles Algernon Parsons in the 18th and later 19th centuries that perfected steam engine utility and power. Watt created the steam engine, Boulton helped Watt perfect the steam engine for industrial use, and Parsons expanded its utility by creating steam turbines to power the propellers of steamboats. Each played a role in making steam engines more efficient with precise design and milling refinements that provided more power and wider utility.

Luddites protested against the industrial revolution because machines were replacing jobs formerly done by laborers.  Just as the Luddites fomented arguments against mechanization, Nicholas Carr argues automation created unemployment and diminished craftsmanship.

With the advent of the industrial revolution, Winchester explains how speed and quality of production were geometrically improved by focusing on precision. He offers several industry examples, including weapon manufacture, automobile production, camera refinement, telescope resolution, airplane manufacture, watch making, and CPU design which now leads to the A.I. revolution.

Winchester notes the beginning of the industrial revolution starts with the perfection of energy production machines that power the manufacture of standardized parts for finished products.

Winchester tells the story of the French that insisted on standardizing parts for gun manufacture to increase the speed with which repairs could be made for damaged weapons. Winchester recounts the war of 1812 when Great Britain bloodied the nose of America by routing the capitol’s volunteer defense because of a lack of useable guns. He tells the story of an American rifleman with a broken trigger on his rifle who chooses to run from a British onslaught because trigger replacement would take two weeks for customization to fit his gun.

American guns were custom made which meant that when one was damaged it would take weeks for repair.

Honoré LeBlanc, a French gunsmith during the reigns of Louis XV and XVI, created the idea of interchangeable gun parts in the 18th century. Though it came to the attention of Thomas Jefferson, it did not catch hold in America until after the war of 1812. There was an effort by America to standardize parts in the early 1800s but Eli Whitney (the inventor of the cotton gin), hoodwinked the American government into a contract for standard gun parts that never materialized.

Winchester explains Eli Whitney flimflammed the American government to get a contract for standardized gun parts but never produced the product for which the government contracted.

Winchester notes Whitney knew nothing about guns and hired a crew of customizing gunsmiths who manufactured unique weapons that could not be repaired with standardized parts. Because the parts were manufactured by individual craftsman, the guns produced were not interchangeable. They did not have precisely manufactured parts that would allow interchangeability. Whitney gave a demonstration to the government with only one gun that he assembled in front of Jefferson and a government committee. He did not demonstrate any repair with standard parts. Jefferson fell for the false presentation and initially lauded Whitney. This demonstration was in 1801 which explains why a soldier might have fled because of a broken trigger in the War of 1812.

Henry Royce (1863-1933)

Winchester explains standardizing and precision making of gun parts were an essential step in the industrialization of America. Standardization and precision-made interchangeable parts became the touchstone of success in the automobile industry in the 20th century. Winchester tells the story of Rolls Royce and Ford Motor companies to make his point. Both Royce and Ford recognized the importance of precisely made standard automobile parts to garner their success in the automobile business. Though their route to success is precise manufacture of automobile parts, the wealth they created for themselves was quite different.

Henry Ford (1863-1947)

Ford became one of the richest people in the world while Royce became wealthy but not among the richest in the world. Royce chose to pursue perfection of every part of the automobile which limited his unit production and increased manufacturing cost. Though Ford perfected standardized mechanical parts, they were precisely designed only for functionality. Ford added the dimension of standardized labor to the manufacturing process. By creating an assembly line of laborers with precise replaceable mechanical parts, Ford could produce more automobiles than Royce in a shorter period of time.

The point Winchester makes is perfection of standardization (production of precisely tooled engine parts) is a cornerstone of successful industrialization. Royce expanded the concept to every part of an automobile while Ford focused on replaceable mechanical parts of the automobile.

Winchester tells a story of ball bearing manufacturing during Henry Ford’s reign when some automobiles were failing. The bearing manufacturer proved it was not their bearings with tests that showed the bearings were perfectly within precise measurement requirements. What Ford realizes is that the ball bearings were milled exactly the same and met the precise dimensions required. The problem was found to be the assembly line and human assembly mistakes. One thinks of the loss of precision in Boeing aircraft today and wonders what that means for Boeing’s future if it is not immediately corrected.

Winchester contextualizes the story of the ball bearings in recalling the history of a near catastrophic plane crash when a Rolls-Royce jet engine fails on a Qantas Airlines Airbus A380 in 2010.

Jet engines are precisely manufactured marvels of aviation. However, a tiny flaw in one oil pipe within the engine nearly caused the loss of over 400 passengers. Winchester explains Jet engines are dependent on superheated gas exchange that, if not properly cooled, will damage the engine. Every engine has a series of drilled holes that allow ambient air to cool the engine during flight. The holes are drilled in precise locations throughout the engine louvers and oil pipes to keep the engine from overheating. One of the oil pipes holes is in the wrong location which caused the engine to overheat after many flights. The failure of human oversight of the automated process and final checks by the manufacturer are the underlying cause of the near catastrophe.

More examples of the importance of precision are wonderfully offered by Winchester in “The Perfectionists”. His examination of the tech industry is as prescient as his analysis of the automotive industry and airline industry. He covers Moore’s law and how technology is advancing at an accelerating pace while inferring humanity may be at a turning point. That turning point is the crossroad between human and machine decisions about the future.

The human factor is at the heart of perfection with precision as the qualifying characteristic of craftsmanship or technology.

Winchester infers craftsmanship does not mean precision is to be sacrificed. He recalls the emphasis on precision in Japanese culture where many craftsmen assembled and repaired Seiko watches to revitalize the brand in the late 20th century. Precision is not a lost art whether work is done by machine or a craftsman, but the human factor remains a critical component of both processes. The point to this listener is that precision is only a part of what has advanced the welfare of society.

A.I.’S Future

The question is–will humans or A.I. decide whether artificial intelligence is a tool or controller and regulator of society.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Co-Intelligence” 

By: Ethan Mollick

Narrated by: Ethan Mollick

Ethan Mollick (Author, Associate Professor–University of Pennsylvania who teaches innovation and entrepreneurship. Mollick received a PhD and MBA from MIT.)

“Co-Intelligence” is an eye-opening introduction to an understanding of artificial intelligence, i.e., its benefits and risks. Ethan Mollick offers an easily understandable introduction to what seems a discovery equivalent to the age of enlightenment. The ramification of A.I. on the future of society is immense. That may seem hyperbolic, but the world dramatically changed with the enlightenment and subsequent industrial revolution in ways that remind one of what A.I. is beginning today.

Mollick explains how A.I. uses what is called an LLM (Large Language Model) to consume every written text in the world and use that information to create ideas and responses to human questions about yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Unlike the limitation of human memory, A.I. has the potential of recalling everything that has been documented by human beings since the beginning of written language. A.I. uses that information to formulate responses to human inquiry. The point is that A.I. has no conscience about what is right or wrong, true or false, moral or immoral.

A.I. can as easily fabricate a lie as a truth because it draws on what others have written or spoken.

Additionally, Mollick notes that A.I. is capable of reproducing a person’s speech and appearance so that it is nearly impossible to note the differences between the real and artificial representation. It becomes possible for the leader of any country to be artificially created to order their subordinates or tell the world they are going to invade or decimate another country by any means necessary.

Mollick argues there are four possible futures for Artificial Intelligence.

Presuming A.I. does not evolve beyond its present capability, it could still supercharge human productivity. On the other hand, A.I. might become a more sophisticated “deep fake” tool that misleads humanity. A.I. may evolve to believe only in itself and act to disrupt or eliminate human society. A fourth possibility is that A.I. will become a tool of human beings to improve societal decisions that benefit humanity. It may offer practical solutions for global warming, species preservation, interstellar travel and habitation.

A.I. is not an oracle of truth. It has the memory of society at its beck and call. With that capability, humans have the opportunity to avoid mistakes of the past and pursue unknown opportunities for the future. On the other hand, humans may become complacent and allow A.I. to develop itself without human regulation. The question is–will humans or A.I. decide whether artificial intelligence is a tool or controller and regulator of society.

TWITTER FAILURE

One suspects Musk is at a crossroad. He will either sell X at a loss or figure out how the forum can provide a service to the public for which it is willing to pay.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Extremely Hardcore” (Inside Elon Musk’s Twitter)

By: Zoë Schiffer

Narrated by: Jame Lamchick

Zoë Schiffer (Author, senior reporter at “The Verge”, freelance journalist, experience as a tech content manager.)

Zoë Schiffer’s “Extremely Hardcore” is a send-up of Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter. Elon Musk believes in freedom of speech with a commitment that results in the dismantling of Twitter. What Schiffer makes clear to some who listen to her book is that the failure of Twitter is not because of Musk but because of the ideal of free speech.

Musk made an error in trying to shift Twitters’ income source from advertising to users. Only with advertiser revenues could Twitter pursue the ideal of free speech.

Musk’s task should not have been to do what has not been possible because of the nature of human beings. Free speech is a laudable but unachievable goal because human beings are influenced by the way they are raised and the experience of living. Advertisers want to know that the media on which they advertise is not going to offend its customers. Musk is unquestionably a genius and a credit to human progress but creating a forum for free speech is an unachievable goal.

Jack Dorsey (American internet entrepreneur, philanthropist, and programmer.)

The co-founder of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, was no better at creating a free-speech forum than Elon Musk. Dorsey was liberated from the struggle to achieve the unachievable by Musk when Twitter was sold. The only chance for X’s survival is for Musk to offer a service that goes beyond the ideal of free speech to a forum that acknowledges some free speech is harmful and that X’s media forum can serve the public in some other way.

Twitter appeared to be a bloated organization that was organized to do the impossible. Monitoring and regulating free speech bureaucratized Twitter in ways that made profitability difficult, if not impossible. On the other hand, Twitter offered a free service to a public that craves attention and recognition. X cannot survive as a free speech forum because it cannot survive its debt service based on people who are only seeking attention and recognition.

Musk’s choice to change Twitter to an organization called X is only going to succeed if he manages to either return it to a monitored public forum or a service beyond the unachievable principle of free speech.

The history of Reddit and its successful public stock offer earlier this week shows that a monitored public forum can be successful. One wonders if Musk will take the hint and emulate Reddit’s success. His mistaken belief about freedom of speech suggests he will not invest in re-bureaucratization of what is now called X.

One suspects Musk is at a crossroad. He will either sell X at a loss or figure out how the forum can provide a service to the public for which it is willing to pay.

METAVERSE

The future of the Metaverse is unwritten. Ball’s book about the Metaverse is somewhat enlightening but not comforting.

Blog: awalkingdelight

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“The Metaverse” And How It Will Revolutionize Everything

By: Matthew Ball

Narrated by: Luis Moreno

Matthew Ball (Canadian Author, CEO of Epyllion an investment and consulting firm.)

As many tech people know, the word Metaverse originated in the 1992 science fiction novel “Snow Crash”. The idea of “The Metaverse” has influenced big tech businesses like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and smaller start-ups with the idea of linking the virtual and physical worlds into an extended, and some argue, a new world of reality. The reality is considered new because it is a view of converging perceptions of reality by combining the digital world with the natural world of things.

Ball explains gaming is the digital world’s laboratory for virtual reality.

Gamers create virtual universes with big tech adding real world experience to create a new, and different understanding of reality. The power and potential of this new understanding bends the future in ways that may be good or bad for society. The potential for good is illustrated by virtual training for everything from teaching pilots with flight simulators to a general contractor’s and land planner’s design for environmentally friendly cities. The bad is illustrated by the expanded potential for misleading and damaging society by distorting basic truths about human equality, fraternity, religion, and politics. Pundits and bad actors can use lies and partial truths to recruit and foment violence that influences the public to act against societal interests.

      LAS VEGAS, NV.

The potential of the Metaverse is partially realized when one experiences an event at the Las Vegas Sphere. The creator’s presentation of earth’s environment is an immersive (near 3-dimensional) experience that immerses an audience in a virtual world that reminds one of real-world travel. One envisions the potential for the Metaverse to give one a personal experience of life and world travel while sitting in the comfort of a theater chair. The Sphere’s experience overwhelms the senses. It demonstrates the educational power of a Metaverse experience.

The bad that can be generated by the Metaverse is the aberrant destructive potential for training and development of terrorists around the world.

The idea of the Metaverse can be used for training and solicitation of terrorists who can disrupt and harm society. On the other hand, the metaverse can be a persuasive, and positive influence for environmental recruitment and action, as inferred by the Las Vegas’ Sphere experience.

Ball notes the future of the Metaverse is as unknown as the future was for the internet when the Department of Defense first created ARPANET that allowed multiple computers to communicate on a single network.

The World Wide Web became a phenomenon that revolutionized the way society communicates, works, and lives. Ball notes the same can be said of the invention of the iPhone that magnified use of the internet. The power of the iPhone changed society in both good and bad ways. On the one hand, it put a world of information at our fingertips. On the other, it provided a vehicle to disrupt society through recruitment of bad, as well as good, societal influencers.

VIEWING THE METAVERSE

The future of the Metaverse is unwritten. Ball’s book about the Metaverse is somewhat enlightening but not comforting.