Technology – REVIEWS AND VIEWS OF LIFE

SUPERINTELLIGENCE?

The “Catch 22” of AGI is the potential for knowledge beyond the comprehension of the brightest human beings. Many will choose to forgo human judgement and action because of the presumed value of knowledge offered by AGI. That is the threat being explained in “The Infinity Machine”.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Infinity Machine (Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence)

Author: Sebastian Mallaby

Narration by: Vidish Athavale

Sebastian Mallaby (English journalist and author, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist.

Mallaby has written a biography of Demis Hassabis, the co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind. This is a somewhat frightening exploration of AGI (artificial general intelligence). The author argues AGI is being grown at a faster rate than it can be understood or managed by humans. Though science may wish to develop AGI to aid society, it may be creating a system that will end it.

Sir Demis Hassabis (British A.I. researcher, neuroscientist, video game designer, and entrepreneur.)

Mallaby reflects on the early childhood of Demis Hassabis who becomes a chess master at age 13, a video-game designer at 17, and who founded his own company in his early twenties. His life experience leads him to study cognitive neuroscience at University College London. He explores how humans construct mental models to think and act in the world. With that view of the building blocks of human thought, he founds DeepMind with help of Legg and Suleyman. Their thought is that in solving the mystery of the way human intelligence works; they could create a computer program to more rapidly and successfully improve human society.

Shane Legg, born in New Zealand, a machine learning researcher.

The two other principals in the creation of Deep Mind, Shane Legg and Mustafa Suleyman, have different roles in the company. Legg is a computer scientist who focuses on a framework for Deep Mind that would make Deep Mind more intelligent with a recognition of human reliance and its potential risk of minimizing the importance of human judgement. Mustafa Suleyman focuses on fundraising for the Deep Mind organization and the operational function of the company. The ultimate acquisition of Deep Mind by Google resolves fundraising concerns of Deep Mind and assures its future development.

Stuart Russell, a British computer scientist, infers A.I. is at a point where gathered information changes human culture.

Mallaby believes the speed of AGI development exceeds the ability of society to either understand or govern itself without the influence of AGI. The author does not believe most of its developers or the public clearly understand the risks of AGI development and its influence on society. The author argues AGI concentrates power in ways governments cannot fully comprehend and, without that understanding, AGI may lead society beyond the fundamental goal of human survival. The consequences of too much reliance on AGI may escalate conflicts in the world.

Shane Legg is alleged to believe “…human extinction is not necessarily the worst possible outcome…” for the advancement of AGI because of an evolutionary melding of human and machine intelligence.

The question becomes whether human beings can program AGI with a preeminent goal of human life’s value and preservation. Mallaby argues at the heart of the issue is human fallibility. This is a subtle argument because it is saying humans are not capable of encoding human values in A.I. to assure and enforce human preservation. He implies human programmers are too conflicted over how to program A.G.I. to guarantee human preservation. This is the author’s “Catch 22”; i.e. a no-win paradox because of circular logic. Shane Legg argues there is no paradox and that the future may mean the melding of human beings with AGI superintelligence.

As one ponders Legg’s belief, one is reminded of Karl Marx who wrote “History repeats itself first as tragedy, second as farce.”

Malaby compares AGI to the nuclear bomb. Proven by the nuclear bomb E = mc² has a tremendous upside. It is the proof of Einstein’s energy formula which is the basis for belief in an inexhaustible source of energy. However, Mallaby implies AGI is like Einstein’s discovery of the equivalence of mass and energy. Like nuclear power foretells an inexhaustible source of energy it can be a destroyer of worlds. AGI foretells the possibility of a revolution in human knowledge, but with the accessibility of the internet, AGI carries the danger of human misuse and societal conflagration. Both AGI and nuclear power are only constrained by human judgement. If judgement of AGI seems to exceed human judgement, the path of AGI may mean the end of humanity because human judgement is viewed as inferior. The jury seems out on use of nuclear weapons and the same seems true for AGI.

The second atomic bomb test at Bikini Atoll on July 25, 1946. The Marshall Islands, where Bikini is located, is suing the U.S. for what it calls a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. There seems a correlation with the advance of AGI. Who is at risk, if judgement is left in the hands of AGI rather than human beings?

When AGI reaches the test of nuclear weapons, the only constraint seems the nature of human beings and their judgement. The “Catch 22” of AGI is the potential for knowledge beyond the comprehension of the brightest human beings. Many will choose to forgo human judgement and action because of the presumed value of knowledge offered by AGI. That is the threat being explained in “The Infinity Machine”.

MONEY’S VALUE

Ahamad suggests the public needs to oppose policies based on economic and political leaders’ singular judgements. Public input to government decision-making is an essential strength of democracy and the great weakness of autocracy.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

1873 (The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World)

Author: Liaquat Ahamed

Narration by: George Newbern

Liaquat Ahamed (Author, American financial historian.)

Liaquat Ahamed’s book, “1873”, has been somewhat anxiously awaited for by the public because of his previous book “Lords of Finance” which reported central bankers’ roles in the Great Depression. Talk of depression swirls around the public today. What parallels are there between “1873” and the current world financial market? Liaquat Ahamed explains the impact of railroad expansion and world trade that exploded in the 19th century. He suggests that explosion seems parallel to today’s impact of transformative technology like A.I. which has shown potential for productivity increase around the world. That expectation magnifies the amount of capital being invested in a changing paradigm in society that Ahamad argues is similar while different from railroad introduction in the 19th century.

Globalization of information technology.

Globalization makes change more impactful today because of the world wide web and a potential for spreading useful and harmful information. Ahamed suggests the vast investment in railroads has parallels to communication technology’s introduction in today’s economy. The rush to create datacenters requires large capital investments with the creation of data centers that challenge today’s energy availability. Corruption became common in the 19th century with schemes designed to lure nations and investors into impractical investments. Ahamed recounts grifter’ pitches in the 19th century similar to crypto bubble makers of the 21st century. In the 19th century, mostly banks, governments, and wealthy risk takers were making foolish investment risks for hoped-for wealth. Today, crypto bubble makers reach into the pockets of the poor and middleclass.

Crypto investment.

As the public today becomes skeptical about tech investments, the banks of the 19th century belatedly turned skeptical about transportation system expansion. The growing malaise of recession turned into a depression in the 19th century. Ahamed argues today is similar to what caused the 19th century economy to slip into recession and depression. Ahamed suggests the political polarization occurring in the 19th century is evident in today’s political climate. The split between Trump supporters and detractors is widespread in America. Trump’s attacks on global cooperation seem similar to what occurred in the 19th century. Like the farmers of 1873, factions of America resent their loss of jobs and manufacturing income to other countries. The geopolitical shocks of the Ukraine war, America’s bombing of Iran, Russia’s Ukraine war, and growing tensions with China magnify inflation and create capital reallocations that harm respective economies and increase potential for world-wide financial collapse.

Ahamed’s book outlines similarities and differences between the past and present, foretelling a possible future.

Ahamed suggests that America needs to avoid a rigid monetary policy based on “who’s ox is gored”. Further, investment in technology needs to be reined in by reducing the hype about loss of jobs with a realistic judgement of employment impact and technologies’ benefits. Political and business leadership need more transparency and public oversight to improve societal decisions on technological investment. Investment opportunities need to be reasonably evaluated to avoid bubbles that distort capital flows. Ahamed suggests power brokers, whether private or public, need to avoid over reaction to inflation by being wary, but not overly punitive, toward investment in new technology.

Breadlines in the 1929 economic crash.

Ahamed offers several individual examples of con men who created hype-driven market manipulation that fueled 19th century fraud with over-optimism, and self-promotion based on new railroad building schemes. One listens to the methodology of these con men and will recall news articles today about technology fraudsters. Though only 3 to 4 percent of SpaceX shares are owned publicly, it reminds one of the over-optimism and self-promotion of Elon Musk. This is not to say Musk is a con man, but it reflects how over confidence in technology is similar to the over confidence in railway expansion in the 19th century. Additionally, search of the news of crypto scammers in the 21st century show there are three Thai suspects, 22 accused scammers in Palau, 82 accused scammers in Eswatini, and an astounding 15,260 suspects worldwide.

Truth is left to historians, and society’s judgement.

Liaquat Ahamed suggests the U.S. presidential elections are directly distorted by the financial crisis surrounding 1873. Ulysses Grant’s administration is undermined by the loss of public confidence in the federal government. The civil rights movement is stalled because northern voters were less willing to support federal intervention in the South. The Republican Party lost the political will to continue Reconstruction policies. Voters punished incumbents because of the economic crisis of the 1870s. Ahamed argues the economic collapse destabilized all governments and empowered reactionary forces that weakened government reforms. Conspiracy theories blossomed with scapegoating of all who had been elected to govern in the western world.

People are being arrested based on the color of their skin with the presumption that they are not citizens of America and are deported without legal recourse.

Today’s American government has stalled support of fundamental rights written in the Constitution. People are being arrested based on the color of their skin with the presumption that they are not citizens of America and should be deported. A majority of American voters elected a President who empowers the government to destabilize its relationship with former allies of democracy. Conspiracy theories abound on causes of global warming to support beliefs that it is a natural event that cannot be mitigated by reducing fossil fuel use and accelerating wind, water, and solar energy uses. Belief in a “deep state” conspiracy has created government and political distrust. QAnon like cabals have grown to spew allegations of secret wars being waged by special interests. Distrust of the United Nations is increasingly viewed as a body plotting to replace nation-state government. That view grows and feeds America’s “go it alone” belief as the only way to sustain democracy.

Where unemployment is created by new technology, America needs to support those who are displaced.

Despite Liaquat Ahamed’s argument that today’s America has similarities to America’s 19th century circumstances, he suggests there are reasons to believe 19th century mistakes can be avoided. Where unemployment is created by new technology, America needs to support those who are displaced. When faced with inflation and economic threat, rather than depending on singular leadership decisions, government should support flexible polices by the central banks of America. Public input to government decision-making is an essential strength of democracy. When public expertise is ignored, judgement is degraded and America becomes less democratic and more likely to fail.

Rothschild Family Tree

As one nears the end of Ahamed’s book, one wonders why the Rothchild’s are prominently noted in its subtitle. His point is that the Rothschilds were the only global financial institution that successfully survived the ups and downs of the banking industry in the 19th century. Their success influenced unjust anti-Semitic growth in the world. The Rothschilds embodied the tension between stability and speculation with their long-term stability as a lending institution. The Rothchild’s stability became a symbol of global finance that influenced political actions around the world. The price paid by the Rothchild families’ success fed the worst in human nature exemplified by the Holocaust of WWII.

No leader is infallible but those who listen and act on the basis of others expertise are more likely to make the right decisions. That is Ahamed’s solution to avoid economic depressions like those of 1873 and 1929. Proof of this opinion is in the financial crises of 2008 and the world’s recovery. This is not to argue that many citizens were not harmed and unfairly treated in the 2008 crisis, but the spread of a world economic collapse was avoided.

HISTORY LESSON

There is an irony in Higginbotham’s “Midnight in Chernobyl”. It is ironic to see what is happening in the 21st century with the revisionism of Presidents Trump and Putin. Their ideas of openness (glasnost) and system reform (perestroika) are a return to the past rather than the future.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Midnight in Chernobyl (The Story of the World’s Greatest Nuclear Disaster)

Author: Adam Higginbotham

Narration by: Jacques Roy

Adam Higginbotham (Author, British journalist, contributing writer for The New Yorker, Wired, and The New York Times.)

Adam Higginbotham reminds reader/listeners of the terrifying consequences of nuclear power mistakes in “Midnight in Chernobyl”. Over 400,000 people are evacuated from the area of Pripyat, a carefully planned Soviet city of 50,000 people, near four nuclear reactors. One of four reactors explodes on April 26, 1986, at 1.23 A.M. There were actually two explosions. The first was a massive steam explosion while a second explosion blew a 1,000-ton concrete lid into the air. The core of the reactor is destroyed. The building surrounding the reactor blew apart and radioactive fuel and graphite filled the early morning night sky. Fires were ignited on the roof and surrounding structures.

Higginbotham explains the explosion occurs because of a safety test that is botched by the operators of the plant. The nuclear reactor is set into a low-power state that disables an automatic shutdown system. By setting the reactor into a low-power state, control rods lowered into the reactor cause cooling water displacement and a spike in radioactive activity. This is noted as a design flaw that Higgenbotham argues is known by Soviet leaders before the disaster. In less than a second, the reactor surges to more than 100 times its normal power level. This massive energy surge generates runaway fission that destroys the reactor in two explosions. Chernobyl becomes a highly radioactive death trap for workers and residents of the surrounding area.

The total number of people affected by the Chernobyl accident may never be known because of Soviet obfuscation and historical indeterminacies, but Higgenbotham suggests it reaches 5 to 8.4 million people living in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. According to archival records, all residents of Pripyat are evacuated and an additional 300,000 are resettled. Twenty-eight people die within three months of the accident, 134 develop acute radiation syndrome. The estimate of cleanup workers is 600,000 made up of firefighters, soldiers, engineers, and volunteers.

As Higgenbotham ends his history, he notes a Russian worker’s death in the 21st century from leukemia. Was his death a consequence of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986? Who knows? The point is representative of the consequence of uncountable deaths that may be related to erasure of truth in any country.

The Chernobyl accident reaches 5 to 8.4 million people living in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia.

Higginbotham argues Chernobyl is a proximate cause of the unraveling of the Soviet Union. He suggests it accelerates the collapse of Soviet authority. This is an interesting supposition. He argues that Soviet leadership believes their system of government had a level of technological and administrative capability that illustrates a level of competence and achievement that is superior to all other forms of governance. The Chernobyl disaster challenges that self-perception. Hierarchal state control fails to train and manage the complicated nuclear industry. A rigid managerial hierarchy hides incompetence. It also breeds corruption and bureaucratic paralysis with top-down management because of information obfuscation and concealment at lower management levels. Fear of criticism by leadership leads to distortion of the truth at lower levels of government. Higgenbotham’s interviews of Russian investigators of the disaster reveals the incompetent training of lower-level employees who operated the facility. Their inclination is to cover-up mistakes rather than reveal them to their direct reports.

The economic cost of the Chernobyl disaster exposes the USSR’s Communist Party’s failure as a system of government.

Presidents Gorbachev and Reagan signing the nuclear non-proliferation agreement.

Higgenbotham notes environmental movements, and Russian anti-nuclear activists grew to express anger with Moscow and its leaders. The disaster undermined Soviet scientific and technological belief in Russia’s superiority. In 1986 and 1987 speeches Gorbachev notes in a Politburo address that the Chernobyl meltdown is a harbinger of the Soviet Union’s need to change. In a 2006 speech Gorbachev speaks of the need for apparatchiks to tell truth to power, to reduce soviet secrecy, and accept glasnost and perestroika as solutions for improvement of Russian leadership.

AMERICAN AMBITION

Keefe shows Arthur Sackler raised himself in America through grit and determination, i.e., little seems handed to him on a silver plate. This is not to suggest the drug industry or the Sackler’s of the world carry no responsibility for addiction but opportunity and a way to succeed in an American life is a choice.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Empire of Pain (The Secret History of the Sackler Dynasty)

Author: Patrick Radden Keefe

Narration by: Patrick Radden Keefe

Patrick Radden Keefe (Author, investigative journalist, staff writer for The New Yorker.)

Patrick Radden Keefe’s book is a detailed examination of the Sackler family, and more specifically, the dynasty that grew after the life and death of Arthur Mitchell Sackler who died in 1987. Arthur Sackler was a trained physician who specialized in biological psychiatry. Through hard work, he built a family fortune with a company specializing in medical advertising and pharmaceutical marketing. With wealth created by advertising, the Sackler patriarch acquired interests in specific drugs that added to the wealth of the Sackler empire. One of those investments is made by the sons of Arthur Sackler. It became known as OxyContin which became a huge revenue producer controlled by Arthur’s heirs. Dr. Paul Goldenheim and Dr. Robert Kaico were the scientists who invented OxyContin while working for Purdue Pharma, a company owned by Arthur’s brothers. Arthur Sackler is characterized by Keefe as secretive about his ownership interests while becoming a very rich man. The structure of his business interests and its conflicts of interest are passed on to his heirs.

Arthur M. Sackler (American psychiatrist and marketer of pharmaceuticals.)

Arthur dies nine years before OxyContin exists. Despite the difficult life Arthur Sadler had with the bankruptcy of his father, he works his way through school, becomes a licensed physician and starts a pharmaceutical advertising company. He worked as a physician, a medical researcher, and owner of a company that advertised his and other medically researched and discovered drugs. This opened the door to profiteering from drug promotions and conflicts of interest in groundbreaking and potentially harmful drugs. As a physician, it put Arthur and other research physicians in position to market drugs and influence prescriptions for drugs that may or may not be safe or effective. As an advertiser of a physician/scientists’ own drugs, they could skirt independent judgement of their effectiveness or possible side effects. The FDA is created to avoid that possibility, but Keefe illustrates how that roadblock is compromised. Keefe recounts how a leader of the FDA is compromised by his relationship with the drug industry.

The Family That Built an Empire of Pain - Strength and Hope

Arthur’s wealth and investment interests are inherited by his divorced wife, his new wife, and his brothers, i.e., Ramond, Mortimer, and Richard who led the company after Arthur’s death. The brothers sell their patent on OxyContin to Purdue Pharma. The brothers start two branches of their business, one of which retains control of OxyContin’s manufacture, marketing, sale, and profit. Patent law is a legal ownership “smoke” screen that protects company owners from liability for harm from patents a company holds. A company may own a patent independently, without recourse to its company’s owners. Purdue Pharma grows and uses its wealth to influence politicians, government officials and doctors to endorse drugs like OxyContin.

OxyContin dosages.

As is known by many Americans, OxyContin has had a catastrophic impact on America. It its launch in 1996, OxyContin is considered by some to be a gateway to addictive drugs like heroin and fentanyl. In 2026, it is estimated that 200 deaths per day were happening from fentanyl overdoses. What Keefe argues is that when the structural conflicts of interest were introduced by the Sackler family (especially with the creation of Purdue Pharma) the lines between drug efficacy and profits were breached by the medical profession.

What Keefe reveals in his research is that pharmaceutical-physician relationships cross the line of conflicts of interest.

Doctors receiving “speaker fees”, continuing-education events, consulting positions, and industry-funded clinical guidelines are being lured into prescribing drugs that may or may not be safe or effective. Funding for medical research frequently comes from companies more interested in profit then drug efficacy. Government regulators are influence by lobbyist for a drug industry that is mired in potential conflicts of interest. Keefe notes there is a revolving door between the FDA and pharma employment. Keefe notes marketing has become a part of medical education. He infers philanthropy by the drug industry may be a bribe to influence public acceptance of drug treatments that are not effective.

Coming away from Keefe’s analysis of the drug industry, one is troubled by its corruption vulnerabilities in a society that prides itself on freedom and rule-of-law.

In one sense, Arthur Sackler is a tribute to how America became one of the wealthiest and most powerful countries in the world. One doubts that the Sackler family planned to create a drug that would addict and kill so many Americans. The Sackler family played a role but how many Americans have made mistakes in their drive for success. Keefe shows Arthur Sackler raised himself in America through grit and determination, i.e., little seems handed to him on a silver plate. This is not to suggest the drug industry or the Sackler’s of the world carry no responsibility for addiction but opportunity and a way to succeed in an American life is a choice.

AI RISK

The essence of Rickard’s book is that the use of GPT is a threat to the financial world and to world peace. If the war on Iran continues, there is increased risk of wider conflict, further financial stress, reduced human judgement, and greater potential for world conflagration in a nuclear war.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

MONEY GPT (AI and the Threat to the Global Economy)

Author: James Rickards

Narration by: James Rickards

James G. Rickards (Author, American lawyer, investment banker, media commentator.)

Though Mr. Rickards has something valuable to tell his audience, his writing leaves room for improvement. The initials “GPT” stand for “Generative Pre-trained Transformer”. They are an abbreviation for massive datasets gathered by artificial intelligence to aid one’s understanding of complex predictions about finance and military conflict based on collected language used to explain the world.

Languages of the world.

What Rickards intellectually recognizes is that collected language about the real world lacks human judgement which can accelerate human actions, weaponize misinformation, and increase conflict because AI lacks human reasoning. Without judgement, facts imparted by language collection may as quickly make wrong as right decisions. Optimum answers to complex problems require human judgement. Optimum answers may be aided by AI collated language, but human judgement is key to appropriate action. Rickards notes how stock market investors who rely on AI for decisions about what to do with their investments can as easily be misled when the market is in crisis because collected language is as likely to lead one further into crisis as toward a reasoned investment response.

Like the bombing of Dresden in WWII, today’s America is senselessly bombing Iran.

Rickard explains a financial decision based on GPT carries the same threat in regard to war. One wonders whether President Trump’s escalation of the war on Iran is not based on GPT that compresses decisions and amplifies the volatility of America’s actions. Is the war escalating because of GPT and inadequate human judgement? America is faced with incomplete information on a purpose for bombing Iran and what goals are intended for ending the conflict. What GPT predicts is more U.S. strikes, further Iranian retaliation, and prolonged conflict that will continue to roil the economies and citizens of the world. Regional war, let alone a World War, is increasingly likely to cause a global shock to financial markets.

Uses of GTP aka GPT.

CURING DISEASE

Green questions the profit motive of drug companies that ignore the benefits of drugs that poor societies cannot afford that would cure tuberculosis. At the same time, Green implies the political will of all nations fail to provide known curative drugs for tuberculosis.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Everything is Tuberculosis (The History and Persistence of Our Deadliest Infection)

Author: John Green

Narration by: John Green

John Green (Author, YouTuber, and philanthropist.)

“Everything is Tuberculosis” is an apt title for John Green’s book but unlikely to attract many listener/readers. However, those who have read John Green’s books are attracted to his story because of the humor and insight he offers to living life. Green offers an interesting human perspective about a disease that kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and is both preventable and curable. Recognizing this critic’s own biases, “Everything is Tuberculosis” is a belief that there are only two important issues for human species’ survival, i.e., world peace and personal health. “Everything is Tuberculosis” deals with the principal of health while others write about world peace.

Tuberculosis transmission.

Peace is only indirectly addressed in “Everything is Tuberculosis” while health is the primary focus of Green’s book. Today, approximately 1.23 million people die from tuberculosis every year. Surprisingly, it remains the deadliest curable infectious disease in the world. An estimated 10.7 million people are presently diagnosed with tuberculosis. This high infection rate is for a disease that is curable and preventable. Green explains in countries with high rates of poverty, undernutrition, overcrowding, high HIV infections, and poor medical services tuberculosis becomes a greater killer of human beings than any other infectious disease.

The fear and anxiety of Covid mimics the fear of tuberculosis.

Green personalizes his story by being its main character. He writes in the first person and uses his personal anxiety driven thoughts to explain tuberculosis’ illness and vulnerability. As a child, Green recalls his own illnesses and anxieties that required hospitalization. He contrasts his life of economic security with the lives of many people in the world that have little to no economic security. He views tuberculosis, not as a scientist or patient, but as an observer of poverty in Sierra Leone and the personal life of a young boy with the disease.

The cost of medication.

The young boy’s recovery experience is on-again/off-again, in part because of his father’s skepticism about the effectiveness of drugs and his belief in God, but also because of a failure of experimental drug treatments from other tuberculosis patients that die. There is a happy ending when a new drug cure is found and started; the boy recovers, resulting in eradication of the infection. He finishes high school and goes on to college. Other stories of the disease in Sierra Leone show distances patients have to travel, the cost of treatments, and different economically challenged families who are discouraged by continued treatment. Those patients that do not continue the medical treatment often see regrowth of the Tuberculosis bacteria which ends their sons, daughters, fathers, or mother’s lives.

Green’s point is that human beings are dying from tuberculosis, a curable disease that kills; not because it is often fatal, but because of a human-systems’ failure.

TB deaths are a predictable outcome of poverty, undernutrition, overcrowding, political neglect, and global indifference. Green gets at the heart of the problem of societal indifference. The indifference is both political and economic. The political indifference comes from every government that is only concerned about their country’s health and welfare. The economic difference is similar but more pronounced in capitalist countries that focus on profit more than societal benefit. Political difference is in nation-state’ leadership whether countries are democratic or other.

CHINA YESTERDAY

Winchester’s biography of Needham offers valuable insight to scientific discovery and its intersection with socio/political structure of government. Government bureaucracy can either aid or impede nation-state’ discovery and innovation.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Man Who Loved China (The Fantastic Story of the Eccentric Scientist Who Unlocked the Mysteries of the Middle Kingdom)

Author: Simon Winchester

Narration by: Simon Winchester

Simon Winchester (Author, historian, British American author, journalist, and broadcaster.)

Having traveled to China a few years ago, it is interesting to listen to Simon Winchester’s biography of Joseph Needham, who is considered one of the foremost historians of Chinese science and technology.

Noel Joseph Terence Montgomery Needham (1900-1995, British biochemist, historian of science and sinologist who wrote a history of Chinese science and technology based on his British education and experience in China during the 1940s.)

Discovery of the new can improve or impede society. In listening to this biography of Joseph Needham, one wonders how farther ahead science might be if it was more widely shared between countries of the world. Needham is characterized as a polymath who became educated as a biochemist at Cambridge. Needham is a freethinking eccentric, a nudist, a folk dancer, and a thoroughly unconventional human being.

Dorothy Moyle Needham (English biochemist.)

Needham meets a fellow student at Cambridge with whom he pursues a scientific/intellectual partnership and an “open” marriage that lasts until the death of his wife in 1987. Needham’s first wife, Dorothy Moyle Needham, offers stability to his life while accepting a second woman, Lu Gwei-djen, as an intimate in Needham’s life during their marriage. Dr. Gwei-djen was also a biochemist who studied at Cambridge. When Needham’s wife dies in 1987, after 63 years of marriage, he marries Lu Gwei-djen.

Japan creates what is misogynistically characterized as “comfort women” in their attack and domination of China in the early years of WWII.

As WWII began and the Japanese were attacking China, Needham is engaged by the Sino-British Science Cooperation Office to document scientific manuscripts, meet Chinese scholars, and build a record of China’s scientific networks. His wife joins Needham in 1944 just before Needham’s return to Great Britain. Needham’s separation from his wife gave him time to become an important historian of Chinese Science. His grasp of the Chinese language from his association with Lu Gwei-djen is a great aid to his accumulation of China’s extraordinary advances in science that created many discoveries–long before the rest of the world.

Mao at the time of Needham’s travels in China.

Needham fell in love with China and became acquainted with the war years of China and its communist movement. Needham looked favorably on the communist philosophical movement. However, his political leanings were inconsequential because his primary focus is on China’s scientific history.

Early discoveries in China.

Needam’s research results in a book titled “Science and Civilization in China”. With the help of Lu Gwei-djen, his book became a societal corrective to the West’s bias about China’s technological backwardness. Needam reveals amazing discoveries made by China long before the rest of the world. He found papermaking is developed in the 2nd century BCE, the magnetic compass was used in China in the 11th century, gunpowder is discovered in the 9th century, and printing began in the 7th century. Adding to these discoveries are the many engineering and mechanical innovations of China. They discovered the value of differential gears to aid vehicle function, the idea of a sternpost to guide ships, water power to aid clockworks with escapements for timekeeping.

Agricultural invention in early China.

Needham discovers the agricultural and industrial breakthroughs of China. They used multi-tube seed drills and advanced iron plows to improve agricultural yields centuries before European innovations. Between the 5th and 3rd century BCE, China had developed blast furnaces and iron-working innovations that were not discovered in the west until the medieval period. The Song dynasty in the 10th century pioneered the use of paper money backed by the government.

Silk making in early China.

In the science of chemistry, silk production began thousands of years before the west understood its value. Porcelain innovation with hardening through a high-temperature process was used long before its discovery in Europe in the 18th century. Natural gas drilling was discovered with the invention of bamboo derricks and piping for industrial use. Chinese gas drilling dated back to when Roman legions were invading Europe.

China’s centralized bureaucracy.

What is puzzling about Needham’s book is not only how early these discoveries were made in China, but why these remarkable innovation capabilities did not continue through the twentieth century. He argues the foundation of their advances is its powerful, centralized bureaucratic state, a culture that valued practical knowledge, and a worldview that is comfortable with pattern, process, and observation of nature.

Management of China’s waterways is critical for agriculture and flood risk to those who lived near rivers. Life experience with the threats and benefits of water demanded Chinese attention. Literacy and standardized examinations in China created a cadre of technically motivated officials. With systematic observation of nature, these technocrats harnessed the power of water. So why has there been nothing like the scientific revolution that happened in Europe. To this reviewer, something changed with the rise of communism.

China’s education system.

Needham’s book argues the bureaucracy of China became too conservative and discouraged independent initiatives while emphasizing stability through exam-driven education. Conformity became more important than innovation. Needham infers the scientific revolution went into hibernation in China while blossoming in Europe. One may speculate that is partly due to emphasis on communism, a socio/political rather than a science/nature focused view of life, i.e. a view toward social stability more than one of curious exploration,

CHINA

MONEY & TRUST

The obvious irony of McWilliam’s history of money is that it began in Africa and its newest successful iteration comes from the same continent.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The History of Money (A Story of Humanity)

Author: David McWilliams & 1 More

Narration by: David McWilliams

David McWilliams (Author, Irish economist, former Central Bank of Ireland and UBS economist.)

McWilliams has created an interesting history of the origin of money. It began with agricultural production of grain somewhere between 3000 and 2000 BCE and evolved into an abstract representation of physical properties. Somewhere around 2500 BCE, Sumerians introduce the idea of interest on money over time. They create a lending system for farmers and traders so they can borrow against an unknown future. This became the engine for investment and economic growth.

Around 600 BCE, coins are minted to provide portability of money.

McWilliams believes portability of money originated in western Turkey among people who lived on the Aegean Sea. McWilliams’ source of information is Herodotus. Herodotus was a Greek historian and geographer in Turkey who became identified as the “Father of History” by the Roman orator, Cicero. Because money became portable, trades and markets around the known world could be expanded. The key to the success of “money” is trust in its value by society. Once the value of coin was accepted, coin became abstracted to paper as a representation of coins’ value. McWilliams explains this began in medieval times and continues through today.

The power of information technology.

However, in the 20th and 21st century McWilliams notes money becomes digital currency which turns paper currency into information. This fascinating history explains how money evolved from physical assets to coin to paper and now to digital currency with societal trust and imagination. McWilliams explains money power became less physical and more conceptual with the emergence of collective trust. Conceptual transition came gradually but accelerated with Guttenberg’s printing press and religious beliefs in indulgences that could be sold to the public to assure entry into heaven. Even with the protestant reformation and the end of indulgences, trust in money continued to grow.

McWilliams explains expansion of money power came from trust in issuers and the authenticity of tokens backed up by societal support.

Societies’ trust is reinforced by the rise of record-keeping, writing, and enforceability of promises. Society accepted belief that money would remain valuable in the future. With societal acceptance lending, savings, and investments expanded. Societal trust in money made the world go round. What is interesting about McWilliams’ concept of money is that without trust, money’s transition to information is challenged by the invention of crypto currency. He argues crypto currency is a gambling phenomenon because it does not rely on societal support. Support relies on its singular cryptographic information. Furthermore, McWilliams notes it requires a level of technological understanding on the part of its users which discourages social trust.

The Ishango bone shows notches carved into it that purportedly show the value of accounting or numerical thinking.

McWilliams traces the origin of money to the Ishango bone (discovered in the 1950s) that dates to 18,000 BCE on the Congo River in Africa.

In contrast to the complicated creation and use of Crypto currency, McWilliams notes the success of M-Pesa which has achieved societal trust in Kenya. M-Pesa is a digital wallet that lives on a mobile phone’s SIM card. This digital wallet can store money, send and receive payments, withdraw and deposit cash–all on a mobile phone, without internet access. This idea offers a model of financial services without ever opening a bank account. It avoids reliance on a creator of crypto currency or the banking industry with an app-based wallet like Apple Pay or PayPal.

The obvious irony of McWilliam’s history of money is that it began in Africa and its newest successful iteration comes from the same continent.

A VIEW OF GENIUS

Like all world changing inventions and discoveries, iPhone came with costs ranging from children’ and adults’ addiction, to rare minerals depletion, to environmental pollution. The long-term effect of iPhones has changed the world with unexpected, often unforeseen, consequences.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The One Device (The Secret History of the iPhone)

Author: Brian Merchant

Narration by: Tristan Morris

Brian Merchant (Author, American technology journalist, writes for The New York Times, Wired, Slate, The Atlantic, and the Guardian.)

Brian Merchant works around the tech world but never quite in it. His understanding of today’s technology has made him a popular writer for national news outlets. Never having been employed by a tech company, his analysis of iPhone history, the role of Jobs, and the history of its development is as an outsider to the process of invention. As a writer about technology, there is a level of objectivity but also reservation about an outsider’s details. Merchant reports what others tell of iPhone’s history rather than as a person being there as a part of its development.

Merchant’s investigation explains the iPhone’s creation is a messy human process entailing the dangers of mining, involvement of other companies and individuals, patent questions, and labor struggles. The impact of the iPhone’s invention is world changing. In a fundamental way, Merchant discounts the mythology of iPhone’s invention by one person or company. There were decades of prior invention before the iPhone became more than an idea, let alone a world changing device.

The scope of manufacturing iPhones made Foxconn the leading international labor subcontractor in the world. Foxconn is estimated to employ 800,000 employees in China alone. Many have been contracted by Apple for iPhone product assembly.

The mining industry and assembly line development were in place before the raw material and labor that would be needed for iPhone development. Merchant suggests Apple became the central orchestrator rather than singular inventor of the iPhone. Merchant argues the iPhone is a synthesis of decades of technological improvement, unnamed engineers, labor and organizations of miners and factory workers, and innovations needed to produce Apple’s revolutionary product.

Genius and invention go hand in hand. However, Merchant explains in the early 20th century, much of the technology that became a part of the iPhone’s foundation were already invented. He notes touchscreens, voice recognition tools, motion tracking, and early iterations of what became Artificial Intelligence had already been discovered. Merchant’s intent is not to diminish the genius of Apple, Jobs, or its employees but to show the public that every extraordinary human invention has precursors and essential earlier discoveries. It took Apple’s leadership and employees to integrate the many technologies that had been discovered earlier to create what has become a handheld window to the world. Merchant explains no great inventions are created out of thin air. He suggests every invention of the present is dependent on thought, labor, experience, and invention of the past.

Thomas Kuhn suggests every revolution in science begins with a paradigm in conjunction with discoveries of the past.

Merchant discounts the idea of the “lone genius” because every genius depends on insight and events of the past to correlate what she/he invents in the present. The iPhone unifies decades of technological progress. The iPhones’ invention reorganizes global behavior, creates a new economic and industrial model, and gives the world a pocket supercomputer. The geniuses of Apple earned their reputations, but they relied on discoveries of the past.

Thinking of Curie, Einstein, Newton, and other giants of science, one wonders how Merchant’s belief about genius is valid. He would argue the brilliance of Curie, Einstein, and Newton are built on prior knowledge, their predecessors, and the tools of their time. Their genius is in connecting past knowledge and discovery of others with the present. Their genius is dependent on predecessors. Merchant is not diminishing Jobs’ or Apple’s genius, but their breakthroughs could only come from groundwork established by others.

INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION ON A BAD DAY IN BEJING,, CHINA

Orwell & A.I.

In the pre-A.I. age, democratic socialism is unachievable, but A.I. may resurrect its potential. However, as Orwell noted, the risk is a “Brave New World” rather than a hoped-for democratic socialism.

GEORGE ORWELL (Author, 1903-1950)

In Norm Chomsky’ ‘s and Nathan Schneider’s book, “On Anarchy”, George Orwell’s book “Homage to Catalonia” is called one of Chomsky’s favorite books. “On Anarchy” infers Orwell believed in anarchy because of his role in the war (1936-1939) against the Franco government. Though Orwell’s risk of life in Spain’s war is inconceivable to me, it seems prudent to listen to his story and point to the significant difference between what Chomsky and Schneider infer about Orwell’s belief in “…Anarchism” and what Orwell really wrote and believed. Though Orwell takes anarchism seriously as a political working-class movement, he believes it is impractical and that democratic socialism (with “1984” reservations) is what he believes could be the best form of government. The idea of abolishing all forms of coercive authority and hierarchy with a government anarchy is impractical because of the nature of human beings.

Francisco Franco with his soldiers in 1936.

Because of Orwell’s belief in democracy and equality he chooses to join the fight against Franco’s fascism. He joins the resistance at the age of 33 because of his belief in democratic socialism. He felt he needed to join the ideological struggle against Franco’s regime. It is a remarkable decision considering he is married, and relatively unknown. He is oddly driven by his moral belief in democracy and equality. Presumably, he entered the war to understand what it means to fight a war against a government he felt was immoral and totalitarian. Orwell served for approximately six months beginning in December 1936. He was shot in the throat and nearly died.

Anarchy and human nature.

It seems inconceivable that anarchism is a reasonable way of governing human nature. It is interesting to contrast what Orwell believes and what anarchists argue. This is particularly relevant in the 21st century because of the inevitable change in society that is occurring with artificial intelligence. A.I. has an immense potential for creating Huxley’s “Brave New World”. However, his writings reject the ideal of “Anarchy” espoused by Chomsky and Schneider because of its impracticality. Huxley shows that human nature contains both heroism and weakness tied to the material world. Even though human nature is basically decent, it is easily corrupted. That corruption makes humans hope and fear human decisions designed by consensus. It is not to say democratic socialism would be infallible, but it offers a structure for regulation of different governments at chosen intervals of time.

“The Laws of Human Nature” is a tour deforce of what one learns in life.

Human nature will not change. Human nature is a set of relatively stable psychological, biological, and social tendencies that are shared by all human beings. These tendencies shape how humans think, feel, and act even as culture and governance changes. Artificial intelligence will only intensify the strengths and weaknesses of human nature. The principles of anarchy in an A.I. world is frightening:

No centralized government, police, or standing armies.
Society organized through federations of communes, cooperatives, or councils.
Emphasis on direct democracy, mutual aid, and local autonomy.
Suspicion of any coercive authority — even democratic majorities.
Change often imagined as revolutionary, not incremental.

A more rational alternative to Anarchy is Democratic Socialism believed by Orwell and espoused by MLK.

The state remains, but becomes more egalitarian and accountable.
Markets may still exist, but are regulated or supplemented by public ownership.
Political parties and electoral competition are central.
Emphasis on universal programs: healthcare, education, housing, worker protections.
Change is gradual, through reforms, not revolution.

Differences of opinion.

There are obvious differences between Chomsky’s and Orwell’s beliefs. Both have social weaknesses. Human nature gets in the way of both forms of governance. Orwell seems to have recognized the weaknesses of his belief in democratic socialism in his writing of “Brave New World”. In contrast, Chomsky’s and Schneider’s pollyannish view of anarchy as “…a better form of government where power is decentralized and citizens can and should collectively manage their own affairs through direct democracy and cooperative organizations” is absurd. The difference is that Huxley foresees the dangers of his idea in “Brave New World” which anticipates something like A.I. that has the potential for society’s destruction. “On Anarchy” ignores the truth of human nature, “Brave New World” does not.

Franciso Franco (1936-1975, died in office.)

Orwell’s decision to join opposition to Franco’s dictatorship fails. Their right-wing beliefs in authoritarianism, anti-communism, and pro-Catholicism prevails. Spain’s 1930s opposition leaders (Manuel Azaña, Largo Caballero, and Juan Negrín) were pro-democracy with anti-fascist, socialists, communists, anarchists, trade unions, urban workers, and peasants who Orwell joined to support democratic socialism, not anarchy.

In the pre-A.I. age, democratic socialism is unachievable, but A.I. may resurrect its potential. However, it is the risk of a “Brave New World” or “1984” rather than a hoped-for democratic socialism.

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: