REVIEWS AND VIEWS OF LIFE

FINANCIAL LITERACY

What Professor Fullenkamp makes clear is information is key to understanding financial markets, but human judgement is the difference between investor’ success or failure.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Financial Literacy (Finding Your Way in the Financial Markets)

By: The Great Courses

Lectures By: Professor Connel Fullenkamp

Professor Connel Fullenkamp (Lecturer at Duke University, economist and director of undergraduate studies in economics.)

“Financial Literacy” may put some listeners to sleep but there is a lot to be learned from Connel Fullenkamp’s lectures. He gives a lengthy description of financial markets extending from Stocks to Bonds, Forex, Commodity, and Derivative Markets. He offers information about how money is used and made in financial markets. Fullenkamp addresses banks, stocks, selling and buying securities, expected returns on investments, how they are priced, controlled, and how information about them is important for personal financial decisions.

It is no surprise to find that banks play a critical role in financial markets.

They provide personal banking services by accepting deposits and providing loans to individuals and businesses. They smooth the flow of money in the economy. Banks can help companies raise capital by offering advice and services for the issuance of stocks and bonds to finance businesses. They offer advisory services for mergers, acquisitions, and other financial strategies. Banks can act as market makers by buying and selling securities for their clients. They can provide asset management services, research and analysis, and ensure legal regulation and compliance with government and international laws. Banks are the backbone of financial markets when they provide efficient allocation of resources and ensure the smooth functioning of the financial system. All of this is true in concept.

However, banks, savings and loan companies, and mortgage lenders are run by human beings who are subject to all the risks of human nature that can lead to catastrophic financial collapse as it almost did in the 2007-2010 mortgage derivative crises.

To be fair to the professor’s presentation, the 2007-2010 crises is not only because of the bad mortgages generated by financial institutions like Countrywide, New Century and Ameriquest. Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch investment banks are equally guilty. They packaged bad mortgages with high-risk mortgages to be sold to the public as safe collateralized securities that were far from safe and ultimately unsound. The result was a near worldwide financial collapse.

The government compounded the failure of 2007-2010 by guaranteeing poorly justified mortgages that were included in the packaged securities.

Rating agencies like Moody’s Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch ratings misled investors about the risks of the packaged mortgage securities. Government oversight organizations like the Federal Reserve and Department of the Treasury did not adequately do their job. Ironically, banks like Wells Fargo resisted the mortgage derivatives while banks like JPMorgan Chase bought and sold them but was too big to fail. Ironically, both banks became vehicles for recovery by taking over some of the lenders that had to0 many mortgage derivatives in their portfolios. (As noted in earlier book reviews, many families lost their homes because of foreclosures caused by lenders who originated the mortgages in these securities.) Fullenkamp explains financial markets are based on information. However, as noted by information computer geeks, “garbage in, garbage out” sunk lenders and victimized many investors, lenders, and homebuyers.

In explaining the stock market, Fullenkamp notes an investor becomes a partial owner of a company which gives them a stake in a company’s future profits, either from dividends or market performance.

Stocks have a dual identity. The difficulty for the investor is in understanding the information provided by the company to predict company performance and reap the benefits of stock appreciation. Fullenkamp gives some insight on assessment of that information, but most listeners seem most likely to pay less attention to professors of finance than to their own judgement.

Fullenkamp goes on to discuss Forex (Foreign Exchange). This is a global marketplace for trading national currencies.

Unlike stock and bond markets, a Forex market operates 24 hours a day because currency is an international trading market with centers in different cities like New York, Tokyo, and London. In the case of Europe and the U.S., the trade would be in Euros and US Dollars or in Japan and the U.S., the trade would be in Dollars and Yen. Exchange Rates fluctuated based on nation-state events. Strategic buying and selling based on those events can create profits and losses for exchange traders. Unlike a singular centralized stock market, Forex is decentralized and conducted electronically over the counter (OTC) by a network of banks, brokers, and dealers.

Fullenkamp also defines commodities markets. There are hard and soft commodities. Hard are like gold, oil, and other naturally produced materials. Soft are agricultural products like wheat, coffee, or cotton.

Most commonly, trading in these products is done with futures contracts. Futures are agreements to buy or sell a commodity at a predetermined price on a future date. The investor is gambling on the commodity to be either worth more or less than what the product is expected to cost at the actual time of purchase or sale. There are several exchanges around the world. The participants are speculators that either take the commodities at the agreed upon price or simply gain or lose money based on the actual price of the commodity when it is deliverable.

There is a great deal to absorb from Fullenkamp’s lectures. The last lecture is on “The Future of Finance”.

He suggests the technology of mobile phones has expanded the lending industry to individuals from institutions. It has already begun in less successful economic societies. Mobile money platforms and digital financial services are being used in Africa. Users of these platforms store, send and receive money by mobile phone owners because traditional banking services are not available. Fintech companies are formed to assess creditworthiness of individuals and small businesses. The vast amount of personal information becoming available with the internet becomes a source of customer approval or rejection of small companies and individuals seeking loans.

What Professor Fullenkamp makes clear is information is key to understanding financial markets, but human judgement is the difference between investor’ success or failure.

BELIEF

Extending Harari’s idea of biophysics research and algo-rhythmic programming suggests a potential for immense changes in society. A singularity that melds A.I. with human brain function and algo-rhythmic programming may be tomorrow’s world revolution. Of course, that capability cuts both ways, i.e., for the good and bad of society.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Homo Deus (A Brief History of Tomorrow)

By: Uval Noah Harari

Narrated By: Derek Perkins

Yuval Noah Harari (Author, Israeli medievalist, military historian, science writer.)

By any measure, Yuval Noah Harari is a well-educated and insightful person who will offend some and enlighten others with his opinion about religion, spirituality, the nature of human beings, and the future. He implies the Bible is a book of fiction that is historically proven to have been written by different authors with contradictions that only interpreters can reconcile as God’s work.

“Homo Deus” is a spiritual book suggesting humanity is on its own and has a chance to survive the future but only through the ability of human understanding and effort.

To Harari, the greatest threats to society are national leaders who believe in God, heaven and eternal life who discount human existence and use of science to improve human life on earth. The irony of Harari’s belief is that humanist leaders are the only hope for human life’ survival.

Harari argues science, free enterprise, and the growth of knowledge offer the best hope for the future of human life.

Neither capitalism nor communism are a guarantee of survival because of the increasing potential for error as human beings become more God-like. Advances in engineering, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology may replace the happenstance of human birth. The value of free enterprise is evident in the agricultural, industrial, and technological revolutions of history. However, as science improves the understanding of the mind and body of human beings, the technology of biogenetics offers hope for the future while running the risk of biological error with unforeseen consequences.

Harari’s book is the brave new world written about by Shakespeare in the 17th century and reimagined by Aldous Huxley in his 1932 dystopian novel “Brave New World”.

On the one hand, Shakespeare offers a positive spin as his character, Miranda, sees people from outside her experience and says “How beauteous mankind is! O Brave! That has such people in’t”. While Huxley notes a future society that becomes conformist and lacks individuality and human emotion. Which way society will turn is unknown.

Harari argues capitalism is the best hope for continued scientific innovation because of the incentive it creates for exploration of the unknown.

The conformist demands of collective ownership of property and means of production by communism impede creativity. Capitalism is more creative and dynamic. However, capitalist incentive raises the specter of human nature that only sees financial gain without any concern for environmental or human cost. On balance, capitalism appears more likely to accelerate technology because communism more often follows than changes scientific direction.

The growth of knowledge comes from science and exploration of the unknown, but its use can be destructive as well as constructive.

Some think A.I. will lead the world to greater knowledge and prosperity while others believe it will destroy human life. A sceptic might suggest both views are wrong because A.I. is only a tool for recalling knowledge of the past to help humans make better decisions for the future. The real risk, as it has always been, is human leadership.

Harari believes, like Nietzsche, that God is dead because belief in God is losing its power and significance in the modern world.

Though many still believe in God, it seems more people are viewing God as a myth. The Pew Research Center reports a median of 45% of people across 34 countries still believe in God. However, the variation is wide with Brazil saying 70% believe while in Japan the percentage is only 20%. Harari implies belief in God is in decline.

Harari explains biophysics illustrates that human thought is algorithmic. He argues our thoughts, decisions, and behaviors can be understood to be a result of patterns created in human brains that are pre-determined. There is no “free-will” in Harari’s opinion. This is not to suggest aberrant behavior does not exist, but that human thought and action is determined by our experientially defined brain in the same way a computer is programmed. Experience from birth to adulthood is just part of a mind’s programming.

Harari implies understanding of brain function will change the world as massively as the Agricultural, Industrial, and technological revolutions.

Harari goes on to suggest humans have never been singular beings, but a multitude of beings split into two brains that mix and match their biogenetic and biochemical programming to think and act in pre-determined ways. Experiments have shown that the way the left half of a human brain sees and compels action is different than how the right brain sees and compels action. Each half thinks and acts independently while negotiating a concerted action when both halves are functioning normally. That negotiation between the two brain halves results in an algorithm for action based on the biochemical nature of the brain. The way two halves of the brain interact multiply the person we are or will become.

Imagine the potential of a mind that can recall the history of the world with biochemical programming that has the power to create new thoughts and actions.

WORKER ABANDONMENT

Trump is unlikely to help the middleclass and poor any more than some of America’s past Presidents, but he disrupts the status quo. That is Thomas Frank’s answer to why Trump was re-elected.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Listen Liberal (Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People?)

By: Thomas Frank

Narrated By: Thomas Frank

Thomas Carr Frank (Author, political analyst, historian, and journalist)

How could the American people elect a billionaire felon as President of the United States? Thomas Frank offers a compelling answer to that troubling question.

Since WWII, the American people have been misled by the words, policies, and deeds of both Democratic and Republican leaders. No post WWII leader escapes Frank’s frank explanation. Not since Franklin Roosevelt, and Harry Truman have any Presidents effectively reduced income inequality.

Frank embarrasses American voters for complicity in reducing the size of the middle class, ignoring the poor, and making the rich richer. He explains how Presidents of the last 70 years have made the middleclass smaller and the poor poorer. Frank particularly points to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as examples of Ivy League’ wordsmiths that misled the public and instituted policies that moved America away from the working class and poor.

Clinton and Obama represented education as the primary measure of success in the 21st century. They largely ignored the working class that grew the American economy to be the most successful in the world. With that neglect the Democratic party became adjunct to the Republican party by diminishing the contribution and value of working Americans. Whichever party leads America no longer makes a difference to the middleclass’ and poor. Frank argues there is little difference between a Democratic or Republican President. The middleclass and poor realize those who are elected to lead make little difference in American worker’s lives.

Frank methodically dismantles Clinton and Obama administration’s policies to show how they diminished opportunity for the middleclass and poor. Clinton manages to balance the national governments debt on the backs of working America. Clinton’s welfare reform took many off of welfare by demanding employment as a requirement for any help by the welfare administration. That seems laudable but its impact on single parent households left children home alone and at the mercy of their neighborhoods. A child alone is left to the influence of neighborhoods festooned with gangs, drugs, guns and their societal consequences. In reducing the number of people on welfare, poverty increased.

Clinton’s programs for crime control massively increased prison building and prison populations that disproportionately affected African and Latino American communities.

Clinton repeals the Glass-Stegall Act and allows commercial banks to enter the derivative mortgage business that led to the near future financial collapse of America between 2007 and 2010.

Entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) led to manufacturing job losses in America.

Frank admits Obama helped the middleclass and poor with Obama Care but argues he made the same mistakes as Clinton by supporting the rich at the expense of the middleclass and poor. Obama chose to follow the lead of George Bush’s plan to get America out of the economic ditch of the century by bailing out the financial industry while allowing the working class to fend for themselves. Many lost their homes as a result of banker’s lending greed and mortgage derivatives that came from Clinton’s decision to repeal Glass-Stegall. None of the banks were punished by bankruptcy because the federal government made a deal to keep them in business or subject to acquisition by bigger banks that became even larger. Poverty remained at the same level. Surprisingly homelessness was reduced by Obama’s “Opening Doors” initiative in 2010. However, the trend of aiding the rich at the expense of the working class is re-invigorated by emphasis on higher education and creativity rather than the nuts and bolts of economic prosperity that comes from job creation and a working public.

The trend of aiding the rich at the expense of the working class is re-invigorated by emphasis on higher education and creativity rather than the nuts and bolts of economic prosperity that comes from job creation.

The glaring irony of Frank’s observation led to the election of a billionaire who lauds wealth and power and cares little about the middleclass and poor. Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton distorted the truth, partly by lying to themselves but also by purposely lying to the public with political policies and actions that did not make the lives of the middleclass and poor any better.

Trump directly distorts the truth but Obama and Clinton lie to themselves about the value of education as the singular path to improvement for the middleclass and poor. People are not only educated by school.

People are also educated by work and their experiences in life. Not every person in America or the world is interested in having a college degree. Shared economic productivity is the key to reducing income disparity. The brilliant oratorical skills of Obama and Clinton were refined by their intelligence and education but not everyone is blessed with the same skill. Trump is no Obama or Clinton, but he appeals to many who feel they have been left behind or can be benefited by his transactional view of the world.

One may agree that economic productivity comes from creativity, education, and work. However, it does not come from emphasis on one thing but on equality of opportunity for all to be employed.

Franks’ cynicism is overwhelming. By the end of his book, which is published before Hilliary Clinton’s political defeat by Trump, one is depressed by the truth of what he writes. The second election of Trump is proof of the failure of the Democratic party, and the Republican party, to live up to a belief in social equality and equal opportunity.

Creativity is an innate human quality. Education comes in many forms which are both formal and informal.

Being employed is a government, private enterprise, and personal responsibility. It is the job of governance to create public policies that support equality of opportunity for people to be creative, educated, and employed. Equality of opportunity ensures national economic growth and prosperity.

Trump is unlikely to help the middleclass and poor any more than some of America’s past Presidents, but he disrupts the status quo. That is Thomas Frank’s answer to why Trump was re-elected.

CULTURE

Paulette Giles offers a story of America’s unique racial, ethnic, religious and experiential culture.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

News of the World (A Novel)

By: Paulette Jiles

Narrated By: Grover Gardner

Paulette Jiles (Author, poet, finalist for the National Book Award for “News of the World”)

“News of the World” is a story of a young German American girl abducted by Indians in the 1860s, near San Antonio, Texas. She is recovered by a 71-year-old veteran of the Civil War. The author’s contextual research is impressive. Having personally lived in Texas for several years and knowing there is a small Texas town north of San Antonio with a large German ancestral population,”News of the World” becomes immediately credible.

Jiles fictional story is about a young white girl who is 10 years old when she is recovered from an Indian tribe by a Civil War veteran.

The young girl was abducted when she was six. Her four years of captivity were in the formative years of life. She successfully adapts to her tribal environment but does not completely lose knowledge of her younger past. Jiles hero is a Texas oldster who travels the country making a living as a reader of newspapers to citizens interested in news of the world. Many American citizens did not have the money, or the education, to read news of the world. To have that news read to them became an entertainment for many willing to pay a penny, a dime, or as much as a quarter. The former veteran, as an officer in the Rebel army during the war is well educated with experience of combat during the Civil War. That combat experience becomes important in the return of the captive to her German immigrant family.

A bounty of $50 is offered for return of the abducted girl.

The veteran takes the job. Jiles writing is excellent, but the narration of Grover Gardner gives the story an extra level of interest. Experience of life is a trial by fire for most human beings. Imagine being abducted from your family at the age of six by a culture different than your own and how traumatic it would be but how life expanding it could become. This six-year-old represents the melting pot of America. Jiles creates a fictional representative of three cultures, i.e. German, Indian, and pioneer that influences the melding of American culture.

Though Giles may not have meant to illustrate the melding of cultures by her entertaining story, much of what American culture represents is an amalgam of older cultures.

America’s Civil War, the Indian wars, and living life makes American culture unique. Every nation is made up of different races, ethnicities, religions, and experiences that make them unique. Paulette Giles offers a story of America’s unique racial, ethnic, religious and experiential culture.

NO EASY SOLUTION

“Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here” is an indictment of American foreign policy. There are no easy solutions for immigration, deportation, or human rights in the world.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here (The United States, Central America, and the Making of a Crises)

By: Johnathan Blitzer

Narrated By: Jonathan Blitzer, Andre Santana

Johnathan Blitzer (Author, American journalist, staff writer for The New Yorker.)

“Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here” is an indictment of American foreign policy. There seems a loss of a moral center in America with its support of other governments based solely on government type, national security, or economic interest. That is not to suggest national security and economic interest are not critically important but Blitzer’s history of America’s support of Central American governments is appalling. El Salvado, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua are democracies in title but not in reality.

Blitzer tells the story of migrants from El Salvadore and Guatemala who are imprisoned, tortured, and sometimes raped or murdered by their government’s functionaries.

El Salvadoran and Guatemalan governments purport to be representative democratic republics. They are not. They have been dictatorial and punitive victimizers of their citizens. The picture drawn by Blitzer is that both are highly autocratic and riven with exploitation and arbitrary treatment of their Latino populations.

Some immigrants came to roil American communities with the only tools they were familiar with in their native countries.

Many immigrants came to America to escape arbitrary treatment by their governments. America has benefited from its immigrant labor, but some turned to street drugs and violence because of their poverty and the experience their families lived with in their native countries. Driven by self-interest, a survival instinct, and ignorance, America has deported many Latino immigrants who chose the gang life in the California suburbs. Gang life offered identity and income. Gangs like MS-13, the 18th Street Gang and other street name gangs terrorized L.A. and Southern California. The police reacted with violence by rounding up Latinos based on gathered photographs and lists of their families and friends. Some who had proven records of crime were imprisoned or deported to their families’ countries even though they may have been born in America.

America has financially and militarily supported Central America without regard to human rights.

There is a taint of McCarthyism in America’s communist categorization of Central American countries because false categorizations hides the truth. The truth is that democratic countries like El Salvadore and Guatemala have treated citizens as harshly as yesterday’s Stalin, today’s Ayatollah in Iran, and the two Assads in Syria. Reagan’s willingness to sell arms to Iran in the 1980s for money to send to Nicaragua because communism was allegedly opposed by those in power is an example of America’s political blindness. Nicaraguan, Salvadorian, and Guatemalan leadership was as corrupt as many communist countries that practiced violence, imprisonment, torture, and murder of their citizens. Whether one’s government is communist or democratic, the important issue is how its citizens are treated, not its form of government. Bad forms of government will eventually fall from the weight of their citizens’ unequal treatment, just as Syria fell in 2024. The sufferers are always the oppressed citizens and, as interestingly noted by the author, the government perpetrators who live with the guilt they feel when they retire from their military or government jobs.

What Blitzer infers in his history of Central America is that human rights of citizens should be the primary criteria for American financial and/or military support for foreign governments whether democratic, communist, socialist, or other.

National stability comes from citizens’ support of their government. Stability is compromised when human rights are denied. Blitzer implies–America should only financially or militarily support another country only if the nativist nation and culture is working toward equal human rights for its citizens. The immigrant crises in America and the world is caused by nations that do not work toward equal human rights for their citizens.

One is somewhat conflicted by Blitzers’ argument. The conflict is in an outsiders’ understanding of a foreign countries’ culture.

Human rights may be universal, but culture is made of beliefs, values, norms, customs, language, art, literature, food, fashion, social institutions, and unique symbols and artifacts of particular nation-states. This great host of characteristics is not easily quantifiable. No nation can justify rape, torture, or murder but they do exist in all cultures. Ignorance of culture is at the heart of why any country that invades, or militarily and financially supports another country, risks failure.

There are no easy solutions for immigration, deportation, or human rights in the world.

Energy

Wysession explains coal and gasoline production costs will continue to rise making them too costly for most consumers. He believes energy production of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power will become more viable and less costly as science advances. From his lectures to our ears, listeners hope he is right.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Science of Energy (Resources and Power Explained

By: The Great Courses

Narrated By: Michael E. Wysession

Michael E. Wysession (Brown University and Northwestern University PhD graduate in 1991, chair of the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Professor Wysession offers an overview of the world’s energy crises with a detailed history of “The Science of Energy”. It is a daunting series of lectures about the chemical nature and origin of energy with its evolving role in world economies. From a chemical perspective, energy is the capacity to do work or produce change. Wysession identifies the many forms of energy ranging from coal to oil to thermal to biological sources of fossil fuels. He reinforces the belief that global warming is largely the result of growth in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere exacerbated by the continued use of fossil fuels.

Wysession explains energy can be stored, transferred, and transformed by chemical reactions and processes. It is the bonding and breaking of atoms in molecules that create energy. He explains there are exothermic and endothermic reactions with combustion that create energy to move machinery and photosynthesis for plant growth.

To some, it is a surprise to hear of Wysession’s optimism about the future. He argues the world’s effort to sequester carbon dioxide and reduce dependency on fossil fuels will abate global warming, maintain, and sustain human life.

His optimism is based on a clear-eyed and educated understanding of how carbon dioxide increasingly damages the environment while fossil fuel use continues to pollute the air we breathe.

Wysession explains carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps heat in the Earth’s atmosphere.

That trapped heat is melting the ice caps, raising sea levels, and causing severe weather events like hurricanes, floods, and ironically, droughts. Higher carbon dioxide levels exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular disease because of increased particulate matter in the air that causes heart attacks and strokes. Rising carbon dioxide levels increase ocean acidification that reduce biodiversity and threaten coral reefs and shellfish. Extreme weather events destroy farm crops and affect the food and water security of millions of people. Wysession notes the world economy suffers because of damaged infrastructure, increased health care costs, and loss of productivity from fossil fuel accidents and health consequences.

Greenhouse gases released by fossil fuels trap heat that causes the earth’s temperatures to rise.

The direct impacts of fossil fuel use and extraction are well known. Fossil fuels create air and water pollution that causes habitat destruction, and ocean acidification. Wysession notes both extraction and use of fossil fuels causes environmental damage from pollution’ accidents and methods of extraction from the earth.

Wysession notes some progress by world leaders in reducing the use of fossil fuels.

Wysession notes advances in renewable energy technology with solar, wind, and battery storage. He comments on the international cooperation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and public awareness of the consequence of failure to address fossil fuel pollution. There are also economic benefits from the jobs created with solar, wind, and carbon capture manufacture. (One hopes but doubts our new President understands and acts on those job creation opportunities.)

Wysession believes it is important to keep in mind the potential of nuclear energy in the world’s future.

He revies the history of nuclear fission and fusion. As is widely known, our sun provides energy to the world with fusion that feeds photosynthesis which fuels plant growth by converting carbon dioxide and water into glucose and oxygen, both of which are critical needs for life on earth.

Fusion is a process where two nuclei combine to form a heavier nucleus which releases energy. The energy comes from the kinetic interaction of the nuclei. Though science has not successfully achieved the high temperatures of a sun-like process to make fusion a viable source of energy on earth, it has been done on a small scale. It has not achieved a sustained and economically viable form of energy but its potential as a clean energy source is limitless. In the meantime, fission has worked to destroy people and things while showing it can be harnessed to provide energy to the world. As of May 2024, there are 440 nuclear reactors in operation, with the U.S. having the most at 94.

Wysession acknowledges rising population demands more and more energy but he argues the average energy use of people in the United States has fallen to 10 KW per person and believes it will continue to drop in the future.

Wysession’s drop in energy use per person (whatever that means) may be correct, but the reality is that American population increases show energy use has risen in the 21st century to 94 quadrillion Btu. (Whatever a quadrillion Btu means.)

In the late 20th century, our consumption was 75-80 quadrillion Btus annually. American consumption has risen by 14 quadrillion Btu, i.e., a 17.5 percent increase in 23 years. Though the numbers are incomprehensible, energy consumption in America is rising, not falling.

He notes there are over 70 percent more people on earth than when he was born. The rising cost of gasoline will compel more transition to electric automobiles. He believes coal and gasoline use will continue to decrease for both environmental reasons and consumer costs. Wysession explains coal and gasoline production costs will continue to rise making them too costly for most consumers. He believes energy production of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power will become more viable and less costly as science advances. From his lectures to our ears, listeners hope he is right.

PROGRESS IN SCIENCE

The point of “The Structure of Science Revolution” is that a paradigm begins science exploration, new paradigms challenge old paradigms, old paradigms persist, new paradigms demonstrate improved knowledge over old paradigms, old paradigms are overturned, and a new paradigm begins further search for knowledge

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

By: Thomas S. Kuhn

Narrated By: Dennis Holland

Thomas Kuhn (Author, 1922-1996 died at age 73, American historian and philosopher of science at Harvard and the University of California, Berkeley.)

This is a tough ten-hour listen. It does offer an overview of the evolution of science and how new discoveries have changed human understanding of the physical universe in a revolutionary way. Kuhn suggests every revolution in science begins with a paradigm, a model or framework that offers a clearer understanding of the physical universe.

Kuhn suggests every revolution in science begins with a paradigm.

The momentous discoveries of Newton, Einstein, Darwin, and Galileo are a few of the revolutionary leaders that Kuhn offers as examples. Newton developed a paradigm of earth’s laws of motion and universal gravitation that revolutionized understanding of forces and momentum on earth. Einstein developed a paradigm of the universe by introducing theories of special and general relativity that revolutionized our understanding of space, time, and gravity. Darwin developed a paradigm of animal evolution and natural selection that revolutionized biology and life’s diversity. Galileo developed a paradigm of our universe that revolved around the sun that revolutionized our view of the cosmos and humans place in it.

All of these geniuses created new, often more comprehensive, paradigms than predecessors like Aristotle, Ptolemy, and Democritus. New paradigms about air, the planets, and atoms improved predictability of results from new paradigms of thought, and experimentation that became more comprehensive and accurate than thoughts and experiments on older paradigms. Kuhn argues new paradigms foment science revolutions.

Kuhn explains how a new paradigm is challenged because of generally predictable results from older science discoveries.

The argument is made that the older discovery is better because it did have predictable results and the only reason there is an aberration is because of an undiscovered anomaly that will be discovered and explained by further thought, observation, and experimentation. However, as evidence from experiment grows to show older science discoveries are not as comprehensively predictable of results as the new paradigm, the new paradigm replaces the old one and a revolution ensues.

This is an insightful story but one gets bogged down by the number of examples that repeat similar revolutions.

The objections from old paradigm believers, failed old paradigm predictions, and ultimate revolution by new paradigms are repeated too many times.

Truman

Truman’s presidential accomplishments were not done alone but he managed highly educated and experienced people who got things done. He had the respect of people who reported to him, and he was tough, pragmatic, and willing to make hard decisions when circumstances required leadership.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Truman

By: David McCullough

David McCullough (1933-2022, Author, historian, winner of a Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Award, and later given the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2006.)

One of the great historians of the modern age, David McCullough received the National Book Award for “Truman” in 1982. As a biography of an American President, it is among the best ever written about a President whom few regard as being in the category of Washington, Lincoln, or FDR. Every chapter is a pleasure to read because it reminds one of why many consider America the best country in the world in which to live. This portrait of the 33rd President of the United States shows a man of modest means, without a college degree, who grows to become a great manager of others and leader of a post WWII world.

President Harry S. Truman (1884-1972, President from 1945-1953.)

Thrown into the Presidency after 82 days as Vice President of the United States, Truman became President. FDR died April 12, 1945. Germany was near defeat by the Allies. Within a month, on May 8th, the Allies celebrated what is known as V-E Day, Victory in Europe Day. Truman is faced with a decision on how best to end WWII by defeating Japan. Though when he rose to the Presidency, he had not been informed about the Manhattan Project. He was fully briefed on April 25, 1945, by Henry Stimson and General Leslie Groves, leaders of the Manhattan Project. In mid-July of 1945 the first atomic bomb was successfully tested and Truman described it as “the most terrible bomb in the history of the world”.

Captain Harry Truman November 1918.

As a former veteran and captain in WWI, Truman knew what continuing the war meant to the lives of American soldiers.

As a former veteran and captain in WWI, Truman knew what continuing the war meant to the lives of American soldiers if Japan were conventionally attacked by Allied forces. He ordered the use of two atom bombs, one on August 6, 1945, on Hiroshima and a second on Nagasaki on August 9, 1945. There was no official warning. Leaflets were dropped over some Japanese cities on August 6, but one suspects that was just a precedent to instill fear about further destruction if Japan refused to surrender.

TRUMAN’ CABINET IN 1945

President Harry S. Truman meets with Cabinet members in the White House. From left to right: Postmaster General Robert Hannegan; Secretary of War Henry Stimson; Secretary of State James Byrnes; the President; Secretary of the Treasury Fred Vinson; Attorney General Tom Clark; and Secretary of the Navy James Forrestal.

Truman took complete responsibility for the decision to drop the bombs.

As shown in the movie about Truman’s meeting with Oppenheimer after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Truman was put-off by Oppenheimer’s concern over postwar use of nuclear weapons. Presumably, Truman’s feelings were that many lives were saved despite the loss of Japanese citizens from the use of atomic weapons. McCullough’s depiction of Truman is that he was tough, pragmatic, and willing to make hard decisions. He took personal responsibility for the use of atomic bombs to end the war.

Truman’s whistle-stop campaign in 1948.

McCullough goes on to explain Truman’s second term election effort that began when Dewey, his Republican opponent, looked like a sure winner. Truman campaigned across the country by train. Truman’s victory and what seemed an interminable train ride was a testament to the grit and determination of this 5-foot, 9-inch dynamo.

Truman’s character description is reinforced with McCullough’s history of Truman’s relationship with General McArthur. In the early days of the Korean war, McArthur took charge of American forces and made decisions that seemed to bode well for the end of the conflict. McArthur reversed the course of the war by insisting on a risky reinforcement of American forces. It was the right move and Truman admired McArthur’s grit in insisting on the reinforcement. However, McArthur overstepped his position when he insisted on bombing Chinese cities when China escalated the Korea war. McArthur publicly criticized Truman’s administrative opposition to escalation.

Truman relieved McArthur of his command in Korea and pursued a negotiated peace at the 38th parallel. This was another tough, pragmatic, and unpopular decision by Truman. In retrospect, one recognizes it was the right decision, but Truman was markedly criticized by the press and public for his decision.

In the early days of the Korean war, McArthur took charge of American forces and made decisions that seemed to bode well for the end of the conflict. McArthur reversed the course of the war by insisting on a risky reinforcement of American forces.

One can argue McCullough’s history places Truman in the pantheon of the greatest Presidents of the United States since Washington, Lincoln, and FDR. Truman ended WWII, agreed with and supported the Marshall plan that rebuilt Europe, created the Truman Doctrine to contain Soviet Expansion, desegregated the military, established the CIA, NSA, and NSC by signing the National Security Act of 1947, approved the Berlin airlift when the Soviets isolated West Berlin, and banned discrimination in the federal workforce. Truman managed some of the greatest minds of his 20th century administration to make America the preeminent leader of the western world.

LEARNING

There are many brain discoveries and therapies to be discovered that will extend the ability of human beings beyond today’s capabilities. Those discoveries are like the discovery of fission. The science of brain plasticity has potential for either programing destruction or liberating the mind.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Brain That Changes Itself: Personal Triumphs from the Frontiers of Brain Science

By: Norman Doidge, M.D.

Narrated By: Jim Bond

Norman Doidge (Author, Canadian psychiatrist, psychoanalyst, studied literary classics and philosophy at the University of Toronto.)

To an older person, there is a sense of disappointment and optimism from what Norman Doidge writes in “The Brain That Changes Itself”. The disappointment is the feeling of lost opportunity for some because of their ignorance of how the brain works. The optimism is that the past is passed while Doidge explains brain improvement is not completely lost with either age or injury. For older people, improving brain function is more difficult but not impossible. For the injured or medically challenged brain improvement is a dire necessity. For the young, improving brain function is at its best unless there are medical complications.

Doidge explains as one grows older or suffers from brain injury; the brain can be rewired to improve learning or restore bodily function.

Age slows the synaptic process of learning, but the brain is still receptive to synaptic improvement. Older brains simply have to work harder to compel new neuronal synaptic connections. With brain injury or disease, new connections must be made by different parts of the brain to restore the relationship between thought and action. A youthful brain is likely to improve faster than an older brain, but experimental studies show improvement is possible for both. Doidge explores brain plasticity in “The Brain That Changes Itself”.

Doidge explains medical or physical deterioration of brain function can be improved with repetitive effort.

What brain disfunction has in common is the ability to adapt to the circumstances of people’s lives. With the appropriate help of teacher, clinician, and self exercise, people can rewire their brain.

The difficulty is in societies willingness to invest in the professional needs of those who are affected by brain dysfunction. Treatment of the aged requires commitment to repetitive learning and relearning which can be done with personal commitment. It is not the same for those who lose motor control of their body from injury or medical conditions. The requirement Doidge and others have found for medical or physical brain injury is the training and availability of clinicians and physicians to provide the therapeutic treatment that will aid recovery. How many medical clinicians have been trained to aid brain-dysfunction’ patients to re-wire their brains to think, see, hear, or walk? How many patients can afford the treatment?

The potential of rewiring the brain extends to returning old brains to their childlike state of openness with drugs. It is a new frontier that illustrates how human brains are superior to A.I.

“The Brain That Changes Itself” reveals a lot about the science of re-wiring the brain. Re-wiring the brain for older people is possible with minimal assistance but it requires repetitive work. For the brain damaged, the need for neurologists, clinicians and other professionals are essential for treatment success. The difficulty is in balancing need with cost and the public’s ability to pay.

Brain plasticity can either aid or destroy society.

Doidge notes how North Korean children are taught from grade school through high school to see their leader as a god, not a fallible human being. The less formed minds of the young are more easily programed than adults. He shows brain plasticity is a new frontier in medicine that can be abused.

OCCUPATION

“The Nightengale” is a story that shows how occupation begins, how occupation fails, and why it’s tragic economic and human costs never end. Occupation is not an answer for Russia’s war on Ukraine or Israel’s war on Palestine. Occupation is only war by other means.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Nightingale

By: Kristin Hannah

Narrated By: Polly Stone

Kristin Hannah (Author)

History offers an opportunity to recognize mistakes of the past. Fiction offers tests for a future yet to be realized. The experience of history and written fiction offer behavioral change that can alter the future. However, the difficulty of future change is in understanding history and the limits of testing behavioral recommendations. “The Nightingale” is historical fiction.

Importantly, it offers relevance to today’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s actions in the Middle East.

Kristin Hannah creates a French family during Germany’s occupation of France during WWII. The story begins with an elderly woman nearing the end of her life who climbs the stairs into her attic to pull out an old chest filled with memories of her life in France. Isabelle Rossignol is a fictional character who joins the resistance. Isabelle’s experience is a lesson to the world about occupation of foreign countries by others, whether democratic or authoritarian.

“The Nightingale” is about the French reaction to Nazi Germany’s occupation of France during WWII. Germany’s occupation of France did not Nazify the French just as Putin will not Russianize Ukraine or Israel will Israelize Palestine. War is not an act of diplomacy and occupation never offers peace.

Isabelle, from a cultural perspective, is a patriot of France. She fervently believes in the sovereignty of her country just as most who have lived in any culture in which they grow to become adults. A country that tries to dominate another sovereign nation takes on a cultural and economic burden too hard to bear in perpetuity. The difficulty lies in cultural ignorance and the hardship of changing a native population that is culturally reinforced by generations of human life.

(In a recent trip to the Baltics, the dislike of Russians is palpable. Part of the tour is of the terrible Russian jails, the stories of Russian torture and murder of dissidents, and the fear that was felt by the now grown children of parents who lived during the long Russian occupation of their countries. Today the Baltics are among the most modern countries in Eastern Europe, but that accomplishment only began after their liberation from Russian occupation.)

Upon occupation of a French town in which Isabelle lives, German soldiers are billeted in local residences.

Isabelle lives in one of these residences as a teenage sister of Vianne whose French husband is alleged to be a POW in Germany. A German pilot is assigned to Vianne’s home. She has no realistic alternative to accepting the presence of a German officer in her home. He is a young man with a wife in Germany who politely explains he will be staying in their home while assigned to the Luftwaffe that occupies their town. Vianne objects but realizes she has little choice and takes the German officer into her house.

Wolfgang Beck, the German officer, speaks broken French but is able to communicate well enough to make the French family understand his demands. Isabelle, Vianne’s sister, is incensed by the intrusion and objects to his presence but realizes there is nothing she can do about it. As the story progresses, the Germans begin to exercise increasing control over the French population. The newly billeted officer at the Rossignol’ house seems respectful and apologetic as he moves into the family house.

An unspoken reason Vianne cooperates, though she has no choice, is she wishes to know the fate of her husband. A German officer might be able to find what happened to her husband.

The officer recognizes an opportunity to ingratiate himself to the family. He compiles a list of alleged POWs. Vianne finds her husband is at a particular POW camp, along with other captured combatants. The list Beck creates is an opportunity for wives, mothers, children, and girlfriends to send postcards to their loved ones. Vianne asks the German officer if he would send the postcards for wives wishing to communicate with their husbands and lovers who are now POWs. He agrees, and a strained level of cooperation is established.

As a local teacher, Vianne is asked by Officer Beck to provide a list of fellow teachers who are either Jewish or communist sympathizers.

At first, Vianne resists but eventually names names. The identified teachers mysteriously disappear from the school which is explained by known history of Nazi’ gas chambers and mass murders. Vianne belatedly realizes her error and is deeply remorseful for having given the names to the commander. She goes to a Catholic nun to explain her mistake and asks for advice. The nun treats her kindly and tells her to be careful about naming anyone that is requested by the Nazis. The nun offers advice about life being out of her control and that she should pray to God for guidance. This gives Vianne some comfort, but she recognizes her mistake while accepting the nun’s council. One thinks that was good for her but not for the missing Jews and communists. Vianne chooses to hide Jewish children from deportation as a way of compensating for her foolish mistake in listing Jewish teachers.

Charles de Gaulle (Leader of the Free French Forces during the Nazi occupation.)

Despite the outward appearing cooperation with German occupiers from some French citizens, there is a growing underground opposition. Isabelle becomes part of that opposition by distributing anti-German posters and aiding French resistance fighters who are wounded by German occupiers. The author offers many stories of the heroism of the French people and its underground during the war.

As the German army is nearing defeat, the brutality of the Germans in France escalates. The brutality of the story becomes numbing but gives one a clearer understanding of how humans endure under circumstances that can hardly be believed. Isabelle is caught, tortured and confesses to her identity as “The Nightingale”. She is sent to RAVENSBRüCK concentration camp. Her older sister is brutalized by her German guest who only becomes more brutal as the war nears its end. Both women survive the war in Hannah’s fictional story while reader/listeners are left to think about the brutality of war and occupation.

War and foreign countries occupation’ costs far exceed their value to either the victim’ countries or their victimizers.

So, what is the lesson of “The Nightengale”. Occupation may work for many years as it did in the Baltic countries. There are three reasons for occupation failures. One is failure to understand cultural difference, two is the rationale for one countries occupation of another, and three–the occupier’s failure to understand the real cost of occupation.

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