Category: LEADERSHIP

HOUSING

Didion reminds one of Yeats Poem to warn society of civilization’s collapse. Yeats wrote “The Second Coming” after WWI and the Spanish Flu. Seems similar to today’s political war and the Covid pandemic.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Slouching Toward Bethlehem 

Author: Joan Didion

Narrated By: Diane Keaton

Joan Didion (Author, American writer and journalist, published in The Saturday Evening Post, National Review, Life, Esquire, and The New Yorker. She also wrote screenplays for “The Panic in Needle Park”, “A Star is Born”, and “Upclose and Personal” as well as receiving a National Book Critics Circle Award and a Pulitzer. 1934-2021.)

Diane Keaton (Actor, Academy Award winner, BAFTA recipient, two-time Golden Globe, and Tony Award winner. 1946-2025.)

Diane Keaton died yesterday.

Several years ago, I purchased “Slouching Toward Bethlehem” without reading it until Keaton had done an audiobook’ narration of it. “Slouching Toward Bethlehem” illustrates Didion’s skill as an essayist and writer while Keaton’s many acclaimed movies show how accomplished both women have been in their lives.

“Slouching Toward Bethlehem” is interesting because it offers an interpretation of why homelessness is so much more obvious in America than other countries.

Having lived in different areas of the United States, the appearance of homelessness in the big cities of America is disgraceful. Visiting the Baltics, Norway, Finland, China, and Japan in the last few years illustrates how badly America is handling homelessness. With the exception of Norway, per capita incomes in the United States are more than twice the incomes of the aforementioned countries. Norway’s per capita income is $87,925 while America’s is $82,769. China’s per capita income is $13,122 but walking through major Chinese cities, there are no people sleeping on the streets. The Baltics per capita incomes range from $22,000 to a little more than $30,000. There is poverty in all these countries, but their leaders and societies have found a way to keep their citizens housed. This is not to argue their poor are not faced with hardship but to show how poorly American society is treating its homeless.

There seems a generational divide in Didion’s “Slouching Toward Bethlehem”.

The beat generation of the 1960s for which Timothy Leary coined the phrase “Turn on, tune in, drop out” alluded to in Didion’s essays may offer a partial explanation. Many of us experimented with drugs in the 60s but there has to be more than that to explain what has happened to big cities in America. Part of the answer is the change in income for the middle-class. In the 1960s middle-class incomes were strong and broadly shared. In the 21st century, middle class incomes have stagnated. CEO’s income in the ’60s made 20 times middle class earners but in the 21st century the ratio rose to 300-1. The rich got richer and the middleclass got poorer. Power shifted from a voting middle class to a richer upper-class that accelerated income gaps that changed election results with an income class bias.

America has contradictory economic policies that have created great abundance among Americans while exacerbating income inequality.

Housing costs accelerated to new highs in the 21st century. The 1960s price-to-income ratios were 2:1 while today they are 5:1 or higher. The effort during the Obama administration to weaken standards for home buyer qualification exacerbated the greed of mortgage companies which led to a near economic collapse of the finance industry. Instead of bailing out homebuyers that could not pay their mortgages, the Obama administration bailed out mortgage companies and their owners while endorsing eviction of buyers who could not afford their mortgage payments.

“Slouching Toward Bethlehem” writes of famous successful people like John Wayne, Howard Hughes, Joan Baez, and herself as symbols of the 1960s. She is effectively glorifying them and herself while showing how they mythologized success to a generation of young people who were turning on, tuning in, and dropping out. Image became more important than substance. Working to be great at acting, becoming wealthy by investing wisely, singing about peace, justice and non-violence to make money, and writing about societal dysfunction were money makers. Capitalizing on dysfunction of society did nothing to ameliorate it. John Wayne is only a symbol of justice in the movies and Howard Hughes inherited his wealth that allowed him to invest, sometimes unwisely and with poor personal management skills. He began investing in Las Vegas because management could be left to others. To be fair, Didion and Baez try to return something to society for their success but their efforts pale in comparison to America’s decline. Artists report facts of life but rarely offer solutions.

William Butler Yeats (1865-1939, Irish poet, dramatist, writer and literary critic.

W. B. Yeats Poem summarizes and exemplifies what Didion alludes to in her book.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre  
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;  
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;  
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,  
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere  
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;  
The best lack all conviction, while the worst  
Are full of passionate intensity.  

Surely some revelation is at hand;  
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.  
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out  
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi  
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert  
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,  
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,  
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it  
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.  

The darkness drops again; but now I know  
That twenty centuries of stony sleep  
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,  
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,  
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

Didion reminds one of Yeats Poem to warn society of civilization’s collapse. Yeats wrote “The Second Coming” after WWI and the Spanish Flu. Seems similar to today’s political war and the Covid pandemic.

THE WEST

Though Mahbubani’s book is quite provocative, it is short and interesting. “How the West Lost It” is certainly worth reading/listening to, but few Presidents of the United States have reversed the admittedly slow improvement of “equality of opportunity” in America.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

How the West Lost It (A Provocation)

Author: Kishore Mahbubani

Narrated By: Jonathan Keeble

Kishore Mahbubani (Author, Singaporean diplomat and geopolitical consultant, former Fellow at Harvard University’s Center for International Relations, formally served as the United Nations Security Council President.)

Mr. Mahbubani’s short book suggests the highly provocative belief that the West’s dominance of the world is giving way to Asia, particularly China and India. To mitigate the West’s decline, Mahbubani argues–the West needs to develop a more “coherent and competitive global strategy”. Paul Kennedy of Yale University praises Mahbubani’s assessment. The public commentator Fareed Zakaria endorses Mahbubani’s belief, and Hilton Root of “The Independent Review” acknowledges Mahbubani’s inference that “the West’s overperformance was a historical aberration and the East’s rise reflects a rebalancing of history”. Despite Root’s measured support of Mahbubani’s book, his analysis is nuanced. Root argues the decline of the West is oversimplified and that Mahbubani underestimates the resilience of Western economies.

Mahbubani argues Great Britain’s Brexit and Trump’s re-election are reactions to the West’s economic decline.

Edwad Luce argues Western liberalism needs to be reinvented by investment in a technological revolution for all Americans, not just those who have benefited from the industrial revolution. However, China seems to have read the future better than the West by building up their reserves of rare metals needed for advanced computer chips. In contrast, President Trump chooses to antagonize allies as well as competitors with a foolish trade war.

Root believes the innovative capacity and adaptability of the West will make adjustments to remain competitive, if not the dominant economic power of the world. Trump’s trade war suggests otherwise. Trump’s attitude is to ignore the years of built-up trust with Western allies and attack the world with destructive economic tariffs meant to right wrongs that are figments of real-politic’ imagination. However, some believe Mahbubani discounts political freedom and the drive of both the West and East to improve citizens’ living standards. That seems somewhat plausible, but Trump is attacking Americas most highly regarded universities with specious concerns with what he considers overactive recruitment of immigrants and minorities. The truth is American education for immigrants aids the strength and influence of Democracy in the world.

Yale University (American education for immigrants aids the strength and influence of Democracy in the world.)

The long cultural, educational, and technological influence of the West may be diminished by some of today’s political leaders but the trend over the last 200 years is unlikely to be reversed by Trump’s misguided authoritarianism. Trump’s significant risks are partially mitigated by publicly ingrained western democratic values. Though democracy is messy, it has demonstrated long-term stability and innovation that equals or exceeds the worst of what Trump’s authoritarianism is doing to the American economy and its institutions. Three more years of Trump’s presidency will not erase America’s legacy or destroy its future.

Though Mahbubani’s book is quite provocative, it is short, impactful, and interesting. “How the West Lost It” is certainly worth reading/listening to, but few Presidents of the United States have reversed the admittedly slow improvement of “equality of opportunity” in America. Mahbubani argues for a more diplomatic American policy with rising nations in the East because he believes China will ultimately replace America as the leading economy in the world.

The interpretation of the Constitution has changed over the last 200 years, but it stands for continuity for America’s present and future.

The direction of American society remains true to the fundamental beliefs of liberty, equality, sovereignty, rule of law, separation of powers, federalism, checks and balances, and individual rights. Trump is challenging some of those rights, but balance of power and term limits will ultimately rescue America from his misbegotten domestic and international blunders. These rights have been challenged at different times in America’s history but never permanently reversed.

POLITICAL EVOLUTION

Karoline Kan’s story is very personal, but it offers insight to China that is more informative than many history and political polemics that fail to show what it is to be a Chinese citizen in the 21st century.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Under Red Skies (Three Generations of Life, Loss, and Hope in China)

Author: Karoline Kan

Narrated By: Allison Hiroto

Karoline Kan (Author, reporter at Bloomberg, has published in the New York Times, and worked in radio broadcasting, studied at Beijing International Studies University focusing on journalism and writing.)

“Under Red Skies” is a story about Karoline Kan and her life from childhood to adulthood in China. She is based in Beijing, China. Kan writes about life in China before her birth and the change in China after Mao’s death. She provides a rewarding view of China from Mao’s to Deng’s to Xi’s leadership. In ways her story makes one somewhat fearful for her life and freedom, as well as China’s economic miracle and growth as the second most powerful nation in the world. The story of her life presents the puzzle of China’s changing relationship with America and the world. She is subtlety critical of Mao’s rule of China while a beneficiary of the changes wrought by Deng and now Xi in the growing power, economic improvement, and influence of her homeland. She appears to view America positively while being proud of her heritage and particularly appreciative of her mother’s role in her family during great changes in China. She reflects on societal change in respect to the life she lives and what her perceptions are of changes in political leadership wrought by Mao, Deng, and Xi.

The power and importance of mothers is exhibited by a presentation of this “Circle of Life” exhibit in Norway. To this observer, the statue illustrates the great importance of women in nurturing and educating the world’s future generations. The author’s story reinforces that belief.

Ms. Kan’s mother appears to be a formidable objector to some of Mao’s cutural beliefs by being unwilling to kowtow to government policies that conflict with her personal beliefs. Kan’s mother is the driving force behind the move from rural China to a larger community to improve her family’s lives. Karoline is born when the one child policy is enforced in the early 1980s to the 2000s. Karoline is the second child born to her mother. Her mother faced the financial penalties for having a second child and resisted forced sterilization that became the law of the land during her child-baring years. Karoline Kan’s mother appears a force to be reckoned with by traditional male standards in China and a patriarchal bias that exists in most of the world. By that measure “Under Red Skies” seems like an encomium to Karoline’s mother and a tribute to Kan’s bravery in writing a history of her early life and experience as a Chinese citizen.

Our Chinese guide for a 2o18′ tour of China is noted in the essay titled “70% Leadership“. This young guide reminds me of the author, Karoline Kan.

Kan reflects on ambivalent feelings some Chinese citizens have toward America. She expresses surprise that there seems more dislike by China of America than China should have for Japan. History shows conflicts were much greater with Japan than America. Chinese hate of Japan would presumably be more visceral because of deaths from wars and invasions of China by Japan, i.e., the first in the 1894-1895 Sino-Japanese war; then the invasion by Japan in Manchuria in 1931, a second Sino-Japanese war in 1937-1945, and the Nanjing Massacre that killed an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 imprisoned Chinese citizens. The estimate of Chinese casualties from Japan in these conflicts is 15-22 million. Of course, America fought the Chinese in the Korean war in the 1950s but the casualties were 400,000, with the possibility of as many as a million who died from injury, disease, and exposure. More likely, the hate of America is from the context of China’s ambition to be “second to none” in power and influence in the world. In the end, “ambivalence” is not the same as hate. Having traveled to China just after Xi’s rise to power, my wife and I felt very welcome by most Chinese citizens and businesses.

An interesting part of Kan’s story is about religion.

Communism is a political system that does not believe in God. Of course, neither do Buddhist or Taoist traditions which are the human practices and belief in personal truthfulness, compassion, and forbearance, i.e., spiritual beliefs about living life on earth because that’s all there is to life. There is no after life or heaven to a Buddhist or Taoist. These two spiritual beliefs are practiced widely in Japan and some places in China, like Tibet. Falun Gong, a Buddhist-like religion, arose in 1990s’ China. In the beginning, China accepted its practice, but the Communist Party eventually fought against its growth and labeled it a “heretical organization”. The Party obviously felt Falun Gong interfered with communist ideals. Additionally, there is the ongoing conflict between the Dali Llama and Tibetan belief (a branch of Buddhism) that is also reviled by China’s political leadership. The point is that communism demands fealty to belief in a classless, stateless society, not controlled or influenced by any social or economic belief other than those of the communist’ party. (One cannot help but reflect on Lord Acton’s phrase about “power” that is at the heart of all forms of government in history.)

Kan’s best friend, who finishes high school at the same time as Kan takes a different path, i.e., either because of her work in school, the poverty of her family, or the “bump” that changes her life.

The last chapters of Kan’s story are the personal journey of women in China. Kan is accepted at a University in Bejing. Marriage has evolved in China but still has many of the same matrimonial customs. Marriages of the past were highly arranged and had little to do with love or attraction. In modern China, marriages have become less determined by family arrangement but more by circumstances of a child’s experience. Like children around the world, parents influence but have limited control over a child’s libidinal impulses. The author’s closest friend becomes pregnant from the son of a poor family that is unable to compensate the daughter’s family in a way that some arranged marriages would provide. The lower dowry implies Kan’s friend is destined to live a life of poverty. Kan shows her to become a factory worker to supplement the family’s income. Her work is hard and highly repetitive but the income from both parents working helps them live better lives. With a husband, wife, and one child, her friend decides to have an abortion because another child would be too expensive for them to live a decent life.

Beijing International Studies University is the school Kan attends and receives a degree.

In contrast to Kan’s friend’s life, Kan goes to college where she is housed with women she does not know but are of her age. Kan’s family is presumably able to help her with expenses, and she goes on to become a journalist and writer. Interestingly, all women (and presumably men) are obligated to serve 2 to 4 weeks of military service before beginning a career-related’ education. The implication of this type of regimentation for all college students implies China has wider international ambitions.

The change in China’s culture with the leadership of Deng and Xi is revealed in Kan’s story. It shows the strengths and weaknesses of capitalism and communism. China’s dramatic economic growth is a result of the endorsement of capitalism with a communist autocratic influence. Interestingly, Kan shows China seems on a road to become more American while America seems to become more Chinese.

Trump and Xi have some similarities.

Kan’s story is very personal, but it offers insight to China that is more informative than many history and political polemics that fail to show what it is to be a Chinese citizen in the 21st century. Kan shows how both China and America have less than perfect systems of government.

HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS

The disturbing message of “Swap” is that human beings are currency, i.e., nothing more than a dollar bill, a euro, a yen, a pound, a franc, or a renminbi. Like a hot war, the Cold War monetizes human lives.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Swap (A Secret History of the New Cold War)

Author: Drew Hinshaw, Joe Parkinson

Narrated By: Keith Brown

Drew Hinshaw (on the left) is a senior reporter at The Wall Street Journal.

Joe Parkinson is also a reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Both are Pulitzer Prize finalists and nominees.

Human life is viewed in this new Cold War’ era as economic transaction.

“Swap” is a detailed explanation of how human beings are just bargaining chips. Hinshaw and Parkinson argue that the Cold War has been resurrected by Russia. Russia uses accusations, sometimes lies, and unreasonable charges against foreign travelers and native dissidents to gain leverage in a blood sport that convicts, incarcerates, imprisons, or murders alleged internal spies, dissidents, and foreign citizens. The authors of “Swap” have researched the 2024 hostage exchanges between Russia and the U.S. to illustrate how crude and transactional hostage-taking has become in a new Cold War.

Hinshaw and Parkinson note that 24 prisoners and 2 children were swapped in what is called the “Rubik’s Cube” hostage exchange of 2024.

“Rubik’s Cube” is meant to describe the complexity of a 2024′ human exchange of prisoners between the West and Russia. The most publicly known hostage release from Putin’s Russia was Brittney Griner (the WNBA star) who was the first to be released when Paul Whelan (a former U.S. Marine), Trevor Reed (also a U.S. Marine), Evan Gershkovich (a Wall Street Journal reporter), and Alsu Kurmasheva (an American journalist visiting her family in Russia) were also hostages but later released in a complicated exchange between many nations’ leaders. This later group was released through the work of the American State Department during the Biden administration which had been criticized by some because of Griner’s celebrity being more important than others. Whether true or not, Hinshaw and Parkinson explain the political reality of hostage taking and exchange has evolved since the earlier Cold War.

Vadim Krasikov (a Russian assassin convicted in Germany), several Russian spies, smugglers, and hackers were released to Russia in exchange for a mega-swap of Americans after Griner’s exchange. The mega-swap was highly complicated and a dramatic example of what negotiated hostage exchanges really mean in the 21st century.

Paul Whelan (Canadian-born U.S. Marine arrested in Russia in 2018.)

This complicated “Rubik Cube” transaction began in 2018 when Paul Whelan had been jailed and convicted in a Russian court for alleged spying. (Interestingly, Whelan had been dishonorably discharged from the Marines for bad conduct related to larceny in 2008.) Along with Whelan’s arrest, Trevor Reed’s conviction and incarceration was in 2019, Brittney Griner in 2022, and Evan Gershkovich in 2023. Each arrest was for different alleged transgressions which added to the negotiation difficulties.

Evan Gershkovich (American journalist and reporter for The Wall Street Journal.)

Brittney Griner (American professional basketball player.)

It was the Wall Street Journal’s hostage (Evan Gershkovich) and the WNBA player (Brittney Griner) that intensified negotiations and public awareness of hostage exchange. The authors of “Swap” explain why awareness is only the beginning of understanding. Whelan’s twin brother is identified as one of the most relentless advocates for Paul Whelan’s release. Whelan’s entire family became “accidental diplomats” by injecting themselves into the American government’s ponderous efforts to get Paul Whelan released. The family injected themselves into the American government’s process by becoming squeaky wheels in the negotiating offices of the government.

Several different countries participated in a multiple hostage swap after Griner’s release. Germany, UK, France, Netherlands, Poland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic were persuaded by the U.S. government to exchange a convicted assassin and several alleged Russian cyber operatives and spies to gain release of Whelan, Reed, Kurmasheva, and Gershkovich.

This negotiated human exchange is a complicated transaction that involved many governments’ participation and agreement. It required coordinated release of eight Russian operatives, one of which was a convicted assassin, and seven others, either proven or suspected spies or smugglers, to be exchanged for Russia’s imprisoned hostages. Along with the U.S., Germany agreed to release a convicted assassin, while the UK, France, Netherlands, Poland, Lithuania, and Czech Republic agreed to return several alleged Russian cyber operatives and spies. The releases were coordinated by the CIA and MI6 with the transaction to take place in Turkey. This was an amazing operation that required agreement and coordination by 8 nations to secure an agreement with the President of Russia.

The disturbing message of “Swap” is that human beings are currency, i.e., nothing more than a dollar bill, a euro, a yen, a pound, a franc, or a renminbi. Like a hot war, the Cold War monetizes human lives.

Hostage taking has changed human beings into a commodity like money. War and now hostage release dehumanize society.

ECOLOGY

Brannen emphasizes the importance of understanding the science of geology, climate modeling, and shaping energy systems to mitigate environmental damage. None of his ideas seem likely to change the direction of world leadership. Thinking on a planetary scale is beyond the interest of world leaders, let alone the fictional “Tom, Dick, and Harry” or “Mohammed, Jose, Wie, and Ahmed”. (All stupid men, of course.)

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Story of CO2 Is the Story of Everything (How Carbon Dioxide Made Our World)

Author: Peter Brannen

Narrated By: Adam Verner

Peter Brannen (Author, Fellow at CU Boulder, science teacher, journalist who has written for The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Atlantic, The Guardian and other outlets.)

“The Story of CO2…” is a slog. Though Brannen’s points are important, the details are overwhelming. Brannen offers a view of global warming based on the history of carbon dioxide emissions and its role in earth’s mass extinctions caused by nature, human industrialization and capitalist growth. The scope of his 500+ page book addresses natural history and the advance of human civilization with so much detail that only a polymath would understand his vision of how “living things” end. On the other hand, even an inept reader will feel threatened by his detailed analysis of global warming’s risks to humanity.

On the one hand, it seems Brannen’s emphasis on CO2 discounts the roles of oxygen and water in the growth and survival of humanity but stick with his theme and you get it.

Brannen’s story is a frightening diagnosis of humanity’s risks. His book doesn’t offer much hope for civilization’s future. Brennen explains industrialization is driven by exploitation of energy and human nature. He notes these are the driving forces behind global warming that will end life on earth. It seems human greed is globalized whether political leaders consider themselves socialists or capitalist. Brannen explains societies of the world have exploited energy through release of CO2 in the atmosphere. That release of CO2 has raised living standards of civilization but, at the same time, polluted the world. Brannen argues civilization has little understanding of the truth that carbon dioxide release over eons of time have damaged the environment. Brannen details how that lack of understanding threatens life on earth. More seriously, many leaders of the world refuse to believe the science of global warming and continue to release CO2 into the atmosphere.

What is made clear in “The story of CO2…” is that photosynthesis by plants converts sunlight into energy which makes CO2 the basis upon which all life exists on earth.

All living things are built from carbon. Humanity’s ability to release energy from carbon gave rise to industrialization, modern infrastructure, and global mobility. Living standards of society were raised, food production increased, lifespans were extended, and the public prospered. However, modern times show that excess production of CO2 threatens mass extinction. The irony is that CO2 seemed a free lunch in our early beginnings but now threatens life’s existence.

Global warming.

There are no easy answers to Brannen’s CO2 threat to life on earth. It is unrealistic to believe the world will abandon fossil fuel use. Some, like President Trump in the U.S., believe global warming is just a cycle of nature while supporting and encouraging continued development and use of fossil fuels like coal and oil. Though China has done more than any country to create renewable energy and clean transportation, neither China nor the world will achieve the Paris Agreement limit of a maximin 1.5-degree centigrade increase. In reality, China remains the largest emitter of CO2 with coal, petroleum and natural gas; despite being the largest clean energy investor in the world.

Brannen argues for understanding the true development direction of the world.

To reduce global warming, Brannen recommends a shift in economic and geopolitical systems with an alignment of economies based on ecological impact. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the science of geology, climate modeling, and shaping energy systems to mitigate environmental damage. None of his ideas seem likely to change the direction of world leadership. Thinking on a planetary scale is beyond the interest of world leaders, let alone the fictional “Tom, Dick, and Harry” or “Mohammed, Jose, Wie, and Ahmed”. (All stupid men, of course.)

PREJUDICE

Unless or until our prejudices are eradicated, man’s inhumanity to man will continue. The truth is that “The World After Gaza” will be the same as “the world before Gaza” but with a different order of prejudice.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The World After Gaza (A History)

Author: Pakaj Mishra

Narrated By: Mikhail Sen

Pakaj Mishra (Author, Indian essayist. He wrote “Age of Anger” reviewed in this blog.)

As pointed out in a previous review of Mishra’s book “Age of Anger”, “…unless or until human beings see themselves as part of the same society, the world will end in the Armageddon of biblical imagination.”

Leadership prejudice.

Mishra is born in a prosperous Brahmin family that becomes poor after India’s land distribution in 1947 which was meant to reform feudal landholding practices in India. Undoubtedly, the harshness of that reform has some influence on Mishra’s expressed views in “The World After Gaza”. Mishra’s father has a Brahmin Hindu background which suggests his son is raised in an upper caste in Hindu society that falls into hard times.

“The World After Gaza” is categorized by Mishra as a history.

Mishra recalls the horrendous past of Germany’s holocaust where 6,000,000 Jews were murdered by Hitler’s followers. He infers that horrendous event is reminiscent of what Israel is doing to Palestinians in Gaza. His point is not to vilify Israel but to suggest societies are inherently prejudiced and inclined to discriminate against those who are not a part of their belief system. In essence, Mishra offers a view of history that corroborates Mark Twain’s belief that “History never repeats itself, but it does rhyme”.

Whether one agrees with Mishra’s view of Israel’s actions in Gaza or not, prejudice is an undeniable truth of human societies.

There are many Jews who are undoubtedly appalled by what is happening in Gaza but there are Israeli’ leaders who believe what they are doing is in the best interest of their country. One may associate Israel’s, America’s, or any country’s leadership as either right or wrong from a personal perspective, but the nature of humanity is what it is. Prejudice is an equal opportunity exploiter of human’ equality. Unless or until our prejudices are eradicated, man’s inhumanity to man will continue. The truth is that “The World After Gaza” will be the same as “the world before Gaza” but with a different order of prejudice.

BALANCE

It is ironic that Trump has suffered so much from America’s legal system and is unable to see NIMBY mentality and a return to the past will not “Make America Great”.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Breakneck (China’s Quest to Engineer the Future)

Author: Dan Wang

Narrated By:  Jonathan Yen

Feng Chen Wang aka Dan Wang (Author, Canadian technology analyst and writer, visiting scholar at Yale Law School.)

Dan Wang is a highly credible author of the 21st century economies of China and the United States. Mr. Wang’s mother and father were born in China when the one child policy was the law of the land. Mr. Wang was born in Canada in either 1991 or 1992. Though Mr. Wang may be an only child, his parents advised him that living in China was challenging because of its state control and family planning that restricted their human rights.

Dan Wang has lived in Canada, America, and China.

From 2017 to 2023 he worked as a technology analyst in Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai. As a young man, Wang bicycled across China with young friends. Having been educated in Canada and the United States, growing up in Toronto and Ottawa and going to high school in Philadelphia, he has a broad understanding of the economies of all three nations. Of course, his specialty is technology which gives him a unique understanding of what is happening in America and China today. He graduated from the University of Rochester in 2014, studying philosophy and economics.

Trump’s apparent view of Xi.

After listening to Wang’s book, one begins to understand why President Trump’s perspective is that the world, with emphasis on China, has taken advantage of America’s economic wealth by eviscerating its industrial industries with less expensive product made in other countries. Wang presumes as a person who has an economics education that Adam Smith (the Father of Economics) and Donald Trump are right when they argue tariffs are justified in areas of national defense, or for retaliation. On the other hand, Adam Smith, noted “It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.”

Adam Smith (Father of Economic Theory)

Smith argued if another nation can provide the same product for less cost, a prudent buyer should buy the cheaper product and use money saved to produce a different product. Wang and Trump disagree with Smith because the revenue producer that America turns to is the service industry rather than product development. What is missed by Wang and Trump is that America is the third largest agricultural producer in the world with China and India being the largest. Of course, the difference is that America has 1/3rd the population of China and India, respectively. Lower population and high agricultural production in the United States hugely benefits its economy. More significantly, food, like water, is an essential need of life. The point is that non-food product production is not necessary for living life.

Loss of industrial production to China.

Wang’s and Trump’s argument is that America’s loss of industrial production has made it too dependent on other countries. They either infer or say Americans are forgetting how to manufacture product. They argue American industries are closing because of America’s inability to compete with other nations because of labor and material cost differences. History shows America fails to expand its industries because production of things is provided by other nations at a lower cost. And as Adam Smith noted, “It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.”

Wang decries America’s movement toward a service industry as the basis for economic growth.

America is the richest country in the world, but America has failed to eliminate poverty, house the homeless, feed the malnourished, and provide for the infrastructure needed to improve America lives. One may ask oneself-what is wrong with becoming a service industry nation? Why does America have to return to its past. As Adam Smith noted: “It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.” The future is about being healthy, being housed, fed, and clothed. It should not be about being the richest and fattest minority in the world, particularly when there is an inordinate gap between the rich and poor.

Wang argues America’s economy is diminished, not by reduced industrialization, but by its growth of legalism that reinforces nimby (not in my backyard) litigation.

Delays in public improvements in America are restrained by lawsuits that protect the rich and victimize the poor. An example is the long delays in mass transportation improvements which become more costly with every year that passes before completion. The delays are caused by litigation. When China can build rapid transit in 3 years while it takes 15 or more years in America, one wonders why. The huge investments China has made in massive infrastructure improvements have vastly improved their economy. In contrast, America wastes investment resources litigating mass transportation improvements in California, Washington, and other states by increasing costs from delays caused by litigation. It is like throwing the baby out with the bath water because the number of people who benefit from infrastructure improvement are largely discounted or ignored. Equally appalling is homelessness in America because of NIMBY’ objection to low-cost multifamily housing that could get the homeless off the street. Cost benefit analysis should prevail, not litigation based on interest group objection. In Wang’s terms, American infrastructure decisions should be based on science and engineering like, what he argues, China bases their infrastructure decisions upon.

President Eisenhower.

The fundamental point is that America has lost sight of the importance of a balance between benefit to the public and individual rights. Equality of opportunity is split between the rich and poor with the middle class being too complacent while the rich reap unconscionable reward. Where are the Eisenhower-like Presidents who promoted an Interstate Highway System that created a 421,000-mile interstate highway system?

Trump is no Eisenhower because he wishes to return America to a past rather than look to its future. It is ironic that Trump has suffered so much from America’s legal system and is unable to see NIMBY mentality and a return to the past will not “Make America Great”. Wang’s book explains how China has succeeded in improving their economy while America’s economy is failing.

MANAGEMENT

“Radical Candor” about a creative idea can discourage employee creativity. Scott’s counsel on building trust is her magic potion, but potions can kill as well as heal.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Radical Candor (Be a Kick-Ass Boss Without Losing Your Humanity)

Author: Kim Scott

Narrated By:  Kim Scott

Kim Scott (Author, former executive at Apple and Google, coach for tech companies like Dropbox and Twitter)

The agricultural revolution dates back to 10,000 BCE, 1760 marks the beginning of the industrial revolution, the 1950s evolves into an age of expertise and work knowledge with computerization, in the 1990s connectivity and automation begins the information age. Today, Kim Scott addresses the 2020s along with the advent of artificial intelligence. Beginning when the industrial revolution takes hold, organization management evolves into a social science. In the industrial age training changes from demonstrating how to make things to managing people’s work in making things. Jumping to the Information Age managers of people become ringmasters for employee’s creativity.

Despite many changes in purpose for organizations a common thread is managerial skill which entails political and personal skills. Managers pursue understanding, influence, ability, and sincerity of purpose to elicit and manage human creativity.

Scott outlines management skills in “Radical Candor”. Her book is a useful tool for aspiring managers. Even reaching back to the agricultural age, there is relevance in Scott’s belief in “Radical Candor”. She defines radical candor as “Caring personally while challenging (organization employees) directly.” By personally caring, Scott explains good managers must gain the trust of people who report to them. My personal experience as a former manager in different careers shows that no manager knows everything about the company or organization they manage. The one thing a good manager must know is how to develop trust with people who report to her or him. Without trust between managers and workers, organizations are likely to fail.

Trust between managers and employees is even more true today because worker’ creativity drives technological invention and utility.

Being vulnerable by understanding you know nothing about people you manage is the starting point of your role as a manager. Scott explains the first thing a new manager must do is personally meet with each direct report to hear what they do for the organization, what they like and dislike about what they do, and what obstacles get in their way that impede accomplishment. The two-fold purpose of these meetings is first to listen, not judge or criticize what is being reported. The second is to build trust.

(I believe A.I. will always be a technological tool, not a controller, of society, contrary to those who believe human existence will be erased by machines. As a technological tool of humanity, the creativity of human minds is at the frontier of management change.)

Scott explains how important it is to let employees know their manager is interested in an employee’s goals and growth in an organization.

A manager must be both physically and emotionally present when building trust with an employee. There is a need for a manager to explain one’s own vulnerability and responsibility in managing others. Scott’s point is that gaining trust of an employee requires more than knowing their birthday. A good manager will ask for feedback about what an employee is doing and what support a manager can offer to improve their performance. A manager should be curious, not furious when things are not going well. It is important that a sense of respect be given for an employee’s effort to get their job done. With development of respect, it becomes possible to use radical candor to constructively criticize or complement an employees’ performance.

Scott notes there are many reasons for an employee’s failure to perform beyond expectations.

Those reasons include incompetence but also the failure of management to have a clear understanding of an employees’ strengths and weaknesses. Through development of trust between manager and employee, a different job may be in order. With reassignment and a performance plan, a manager may be able to tap a human resource that has been wasted. The performance plan is instituted with “Radical Candor” and offers either opportunity or, if performance improvement fails, dismissal.

Every organization has distinctive operational idiosyncrasies that a manager may not precisely understand.

This has always been true. It is even more true in the tech age because project uniqueness and employee creativity is more difficult to measure and manage. Kim Scott has worked with the most iconic tech companies of modern times, e.g. Apple, Google, Twitter. There are a number of anecdotes about famous tech giants and officers of Facebook, Apple, and Google, like Sandberg, Cook, and Page. Kim has also started her own businesses, some of which failed, and others that prospered. Her experience offers credibility to her arguments.

From personal experience as a manager of others, no manager ever knows all there is to know.

As Scott notes, this is not to say that geniuses like Steve Jobs did not know more than his Apple employees, but the iPhone idea came from a group of employees before approaching Jobs with a clunky mock-up of the idea. Jobs had a reputation for being a tough audience for people with creative ideas. This is the reason Kim Scott explains trust must be created between manager and employee so that candor about needs and expectations can be usefully employed to improve probability of personal and organizational success.

One takes Kim Scott’s counsel on “Radical Candor” with some reservation because misused “Radical Candor” about a creative idea can discourage employee creativity. Scott’s counsel on building trust is her magic potion, but potions can kill as well as heal.

INEPTITUDE

“The Mission” is a depressing view of American ineptitude that reminds one of the Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and 9/11.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Mission (The CIA in the 21st Century)

Author: Tim Weiner

Narrated By:  Stefan Rudnicki

Tim Weiner (Author, American reporter, awarded Pulitzer Prize and National Book Award for books on espionage, national security and foreign policy.)

This is a tough book to read/listen to because of its damning assessment of the American CIA. Weiner is not the only American writer to reveal failed operations of the CIA but his access to their files seems like America’s attempt to understand and improve CIA operations’ management. That is the best face one can put on Weiner’s highly critical assessment of CIA operations. The CIA’s official response is that Weiner is biased, and his research of CIA files misrepresents the complexity of intelligence work. Some historians suggest Weiner cites CIA’ failures without enough context to balance the need for a covert intelligence agency.

The more troubling concern inferred by Weiner is the Trump Presidency and his authoritarian character and tolerance for leaders like Putin who think “might makes right”. What use will Trump make of the CIA’s covert power?

As the Turkish proverb says, “fish stinks first at the head”. Weiner notes, along with the huge escalation of drone assassinations by a liberal Democrat like Obama, one wonders what Trump may do in his second term.

Weiner explains the second Bush administration uses the CIA to push for evidence of WMD in their desire for justification to invade Iraq. The facts did not matter because the President wanted action. Under the Bush administration, the CIA adopts “enhanced interrogation techniques” (brutal torture) of political prisoners kept at Bagram Air Base. Weiner argues the CIA mission of covert intelligence is distorted in a drift toward paramilitary operations causing civilian casualties. One gets a sense that the second Bush administration is reacting to the horrendous 9/11 attack because of his administration’s failure to acknowledge CIA’s evidence that Bin Laden planned an attack on the U.S. The evidence of an attack’s imminence is clearly reported to the President by CIA leadership. This is a tough pill to swallow because the intelligence purpose of the CIA seems subordinated by both Democrats and Republicans to political interest rather than nation-state security.

Weiner vilifies CIA leaders like George Tenet, Porter Goss, and Leon Panetta. Tenet assures President Bush of Iraq’s possession of WMD. Goss, a Republican appointed by Bush, and Panetta, appointed by Obama, transformed the CIA into a paramilitary force after 9/11. Obama authorized use of drones in covert killings of over 500 foreign agents based on CIA’ espionage and analysis of their activities. Weiner notes Michael Hayden authorized torture programs by the CIA. Wiener argues torture programs and authorized assassinations damaged CIA’s credibility and effectiveness. To Wiener, the CIA’s leadership decline reaches back to Allen Dulles’s Cold War and William Casey’s Iran-Contra entanglement during the Reagan years. Covert action became more important than intelligence gathering.

“The Mission” is a depressing view of American ineptitude that reminds one of the Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and 9/11. Wiener offers a dim view of both Democratic and Republican leadership in America. One hopes America can be better than what Wiener reveals in “The Mission”. The jury may still be out, but Trump’s administration seems likely to continue America’s international decline.

FARMLAND

Historically, collectivization of land has failed even when those who are part of the collective are better off than they were when they had no land.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Land Power (Who Has It, Who Doesn’t, and How that Determines the Fate of Societies)

Author: Michael Albertus

Narrated By: Braden Wright

Michael Albertus (Author, professor at the University of Chicago in the Department of Political Science.)

Michael Albertus develops a powerful argument for “Land Power”. Much of history and current events in relatively undeveloped countries are identified as proof of Albertus’s belief that “Land Power” is key not only to economic growth but to social improvement. He reflects on the history of Great Britain, France, and the United States while noting current affairs in developing countries like Peru, Columbia, and Bolivia support his argument.

The unfortunate truth of history is that indigenous populations, particularly in America and Great Britain, were displaced in order for “Land Power” to be the engine for economic prosperity and social change. In the case of America of course, it is the displacement of North American natives by English settlers who became Americans. In contrast Great Britain’s “Land Power” comes from a landed aristocracy and their subjugation of foreign cultures with autocratic control and rule of Asian and European countries. In France, Kings and an aristocratic government’s rejection by commoners in 1789 seem the motive force behind “Land Power” ascension.

For Peru, Columbia, and Bolivia Albertus infers examples of Britain, America, and France set a table for “Land Power” change by their governments. In my opinion, the age of technology has diminished “Land Power” importance in America, Great Britain, and France.

“Land Power” still carries weight in America, Great Britain, and France but in the tech age it seems the power of accumulated wealth has become more powerful than land. However, Albertus’s “Land Power” argument in regard to South American countries like Peru, Colombia, and Bolivia are compelling in regard to their economic and social improvement. Albertus notes private land ownership and recognition of women’s rights to own property, show that “Land Power” is a source of economic and social improvement in South America. He suggests countries like Mexico are being challenged by their failure to reform land ownership policies but today’s leaders in Peru, Columbia, and Bolivia have made significant land reform changes.

Albertus explains the major reform movement between 1969-1980 made by General Alvarado in Peru.

General Alvarado ordered nearly half of all private agricultural land be redistributed among Peruvian citizens. He dismantled large estates to empower peasant cooperatives. It has not been a perfect solution because it created an insurgent group called the Shining Path that pressed for a Maoist collective land reform for the redistributed Peruvian estates. Just as collective farms failed in China, they failed in Peru because common gains in collectives did not fairly reward performance. Collective farms distort the needs and results when a collective rather than a singular leader is responsible for performance of the collective. Nevertheless, the steps taken to dismantle half of private agricultural land, is considered by Albertus a step in the right direction because it incentivized many Peruvians who were living in poverty.

In Colombia, in 1966 through 1970 President Restrepo redistributed agricultural land to former agricultural laborers.

FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) is organized in 1964 to offer peasant self-defense for actions soon to be taken by President Restrepo to reduce land ownership inequality. Between 2010 and 2018, President Santos negotiated with FARC to settle disputes between former landowners, and new farmers that benefited from land redistribution. There is still conflict because of FARC’s false belief in collective farming which has been proven a failure in other countries, but President Santos and his successors have created a path, though no solution, for reform through the hope for understanding and compromise. Albertus infers land reform is a work in progress, not a perfect solution.

Land reform in Bolivia spans 1953 and the early 2000s.

Presidents Estenssoro (1952-1956) and Evo Morales (2006-2019) worked on land reform along the same lines as Peru and Colombia. Large estates were broken up in 1953 and redistributed to peasants. Morales clarifies indigenous land rights but formalized communal ownership of redistributed land. This is another example of a work in progress because collectivization may be a step in redistributed land, but it has not proven to be a long-range benefit to a country’s citizens. It becomes too divisive and unrewarding for optimum performance and fair rewards for those who excel.

Collective farming.

One who read/listens to Albertus’s insight to land reform believes his story has merit but his history is too optimistic when a little additional research shows land reform is a losing proposition when not fully supported by institutions that had implemented change.

History shows land collectivization when large landowners lose their land is a fool’s errand because it fails to reward those who excel as part owners of redistributed land. Human nature gets in the way. Those who work harder than others expect to have proportionate reward. Collective farming disincentivizes personal high performance. Historically, collectivization of land has failed even when those who are part of the collective are better off than they were when they had no land.