GOVERNMENT – Page 11 – REVIEWS AND VIEWS OF LIFE

AMERICAN HOPE

From Fukuyama’s intellectual musing to our eyes and ears, one hopes he is correct about America’s future in the technological age.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Great Disruption (Human Nature and the Reconstitution of Social Order)

By: Francis Fukuyama

Francis Fukuyama (Author, political scientist, political economist, international relations scholar.)

Francis Fukuyama argues America is at the threshold of a social reconstitution. Fukuyama believes we are at Gladwell’s “Tipping Point” that is changing social norms and rebuilding America’s social order. He argues the innovation of technology, like the industrial revolution, is deconstructing social relationships and economics while reconstructing capitalist democracy.

Gladwell’s Revenge of the Tipping Point.

The immense power of big technology companies like Amazon, Google, and Facebook have outsized influence on American society. They change the tone of social interaction through their ability to disseminate both accurate and misleading information. They erode privacy and create algorithms tailored to disparate interest groups that polarize society. The media giant’s objective is to increase clicks on their platforms to attract more advertisers who pay for public exposure of their service, merchandise, and brand.

To reduce outsize influence of big tech companies, Fukuyama suggests more technology has an answer.

There should be more antitrust measures instituted by the government to break monopolistic practices and encourage competition with large technology companies. Algorithms created by oversight government organizations can ensure transparency and reduce harmful content to reduce big tech companies influence on society. (One doubts expansion of government agencies is a likely scenario in today’s government.)

On the one hand, technology has improved convenience, communication, and a wider distribution of information.

On the other, technology has flooded society with misinformation, invaded privacy, and polarized society. Technology has created new jobs while increasing loss of traditional industry jobs with automation. Trying to return to past labor-intensive manufacturing companies is a fool’s errand in the age of technology.

Luddites during the Industrial Revolution.

Like the industrial revolution, the tech revolution’s social impact is mixed with a potential for greater social isolation, and job displacement with the addition of wide distribution of misinformation. The positives of new technology are improvements in healthcare product and services, renewable energy, and climate understanding with potential for improved control.

Work-life balance in families has been disrupted by technology.

Face-to-face interactions become less and less necessary. Children’s access to technology impacts parental supervision and relationship. Fukuyama suggests setting boundaries for technology use needs to be a priority in American families. Technology can open the door to better education, but it also becomes a source of misinformation that can come from the internet of things. Employers have the opportunity to help with work-life balance by encouraging flexible hours and remote work. (Oddly, that suggestion is being undermined by the current government administration and many American companies.)

Economic growth, access to information, and global connectivity have been positively impacted by technology. However, the concentration of power, misinformation, and surveillance of social media has diminished privacy and eroded individual freedom. There are concerns about technology and how it is good and bad for democratic capitalism.

The good lies in increased efficiency, innovation and creation of new markets, through globalization. However, today’s American government shows how tariffs are a destroyer of globalization. Fukuyama implies A.I. and automation is displacing workers and aggravating economic inequality because it is being misunderstood for its true potential and also being misused. Personal data is used to manipulate consumers in ways that challenge the balance between corporations and consumers.

Fukuyama argues private parties will grow in America to create software that will filter and customize online services.

With that effort control of the influence of big tech companies will be diminished. With decentralization of big tech power and influence, society will theoretically become less polarized and more consensus oriented. The capitalist opportunity for tech savvy startups that diminish influence of big tech companies will re-create diversification like that which the matured industrial revolution gave to new manufacturers. Like Standard Oil and other conglomerates of the industrial revolution, businesses like Amazon, Google, and Facebook will have competition that diminishes their power and influence.

American Government will grow to regulate the internet of things just as it has grown to regulate banks, industries, and social services.

Service to citizens will become a bigger part of the economy as a replacement for manufacturing. Family life will re-invent itself as a force of society because of the time saved from manufacturing product to improve human relationships.

From Fukuyama’s intellectual musing to our eyes and ears, one hopes he is correct about America’s future in the technological age.

TIPPING POINT

Today, some look at the American government with concern. Are we at a tipping point in America?

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.

Revenge of the Tipping Point (Overstories, Superspreaders, and the Rise of Social Engineering)

By: Malcolm Gladwell

Narrated By: Malcolm Gladwell

Malcolm Gladwell (Canadian Author, journalist, public speaker, staff writer for The New Yorker.)

Malcolm Gladwell returns to the subject of “…Tipping Point” that originally explored how small actions or events can trigger significant changes in society. “Revenge of the Tipping Point” provides several stories of tipping points that have had vengeful consequences for society.

One of the most consequential tipping point stories is about America’s attempt to engineer social equality.

America is struggling with social diversity. Gladwell infers social diversity is a great strength in American society. However, our government and domestic leaders have legislated discrimination, fought wars, murdered innocents, and promoted ethnic separation throughout its history as a nation. Despite our most famous statement of American value, i.e. “E pluribus unum” (Out of many, one), America has failed.

The value of social diversity is it allows Americans to achieve great things despite inequality that exists in America.

Gladwell tells the story of a community in Florida that prides itself on being an exemplar of American society because of its strong educational values, cultural pride, community support, and economic mobility. The people who live in this community focus on preserving and celebrating their ethnic heritage, traditions, and identity. They assemble an island of cultural sameness that overtly and covertly resists change. Those who are not of the right ethnic heritage or race who may have the same drive for high educational achievement, community participation, and relative wealth are not welcome. The tipping point revenge Gladwell notes is in the stress this community places on its children to excel academically and conform to expectation. Gladwell notes student suicides are disproportionately high because of the social pressure children feel to conform. The social pressure for conformity and educational expectation overwhelms some who live in the community. Some parents choose to send their children outside the community school system to allay the social pressure they feel.

Gladwell notes the 2023 Supreme Court rejection of college acceptance based on diversity. The Court denies the right of colleges to recruit students based on ethnicity or race.

On the face of it, that seems an unfair decision but Gladwell notes that the schools being challenged on their diversity policies refuse to explain how they determine who should be admitted based on a percentage figure of fair representation. Gladwell notes the primary criteria for college selection has little to do with a drive for diversity but are based on revenue producing university sports programs and donor money. Minority preference admissions are based on income potential for the university, not social diversity.

The Supreme Court ruling does not preclude consideration of an applicant’s personal life experience, but Gladwell notes it nevertheless has nothing to do with a drive for equality or diversity.

Unfortunately, the Supreme Court decision may cause a reevaluation of outreach to minorities who have been denied equal opportunity for personal success. Gladwell’s ironic point is that American diversity in the pre-Supreme Court decision was never based on creating diversity but on raising money for university foundations.

Gladwell explains the drug crises is more of an American problem than for most other nations of the world.

One asks oneself, what makes America the center of opioid addiction and death.

From the greed of drug dealers, medicine manufacturers and doctors who prescribe opioids, America has the highest opioid deaths in the world. Though Estonia has the highest opioid death’s per capita because of its smaller population, the manufacturers and doctor-prescribed synthetic opioids have greatly increased American’s deaths. Purdue Pharma aggressively marketed OxyContin with the owners, the Sackler family, reaching a multibillion-dollar settlement. Many doctors like Dr. Hsiu-Ying Tseng and Dr. Nelson Onaro have been prosecuted for overprescribing opioids or running “pill mills” that provided opioids to the public.

Gladwell suggests it is the superspreaders, worldwide legal and illegal manufacturers and sellers of opioids, and incompetent/greedy medical prescribers as tipping point causes of America’s addiction crises. However, he argues there are environmental and systemic societal factors that create a receptive user base in America. Economic stability is unattainable for many Americans because of economic, racial, and ethnic differences. He argues small actions and decisions lead to widespread consequences. Every human being has a tipping point based on their experience in the world. The ideals of America conflict with its reality. The pain of that realization leads some to relief through drugs, a step-by-step addiction that can lead to death.

Berlin Memorial to the Holocaust.

There are other tipping points Gladwell explains. One that resonates with my life experience is the ignorance many have of the history of the world. Some would argue, Americans became aware of the Holocaust after the end of the war in 1945. However, Gladwell argues most Americans remained ignorant of its reality until 1978 following the release of the NBC miniseries “Holocaust”. Until then, Gladwell argues there was little broad cultural understanding of its atrocity. Having graduated from high school in 1965, much of what Gladwell notes about ignorance of the Holocaust rings loudly and clearly.

I doubt that many were completely ignorant of the Holocaust, but its brutal reality was not taught in the high school I attended in the 60s. Having visited Auschwitz and viewed its gas chamber, piles of discarded shoes and clothes, and pictures of murdered human beings, the truth and guilt that one feels for being a part of humanity is overwhelming.

We have an FBI director that wants to have men and women of the agency coordinate training with the UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship), headquartered in Las Vegas. We have a President who publicly chastises Ukraine’s President and suggests they caused Russia’s invasion of their country. We have a President that insists America is being taken advantage of by lower cost production of product of other countries and that tariffs are a way to balance the American budget. We have a Palestinian protester at Columbia University who is arrested for social disruption. The head of the Department of Health Services orders lie detector tests for employees to find any leaks about the current Administration’s actions.

Tariffs have historically been found to damage America’s economy. Is the FBI a military force that needs to be schooled in hand-to-hand combat? One need only read Adam Smith about free trade to understand the fallacy of Tariffs. Have we forgotten the invasions of Austria and Poland by Germany at the beginnings of WWII? Is free speech a crime because of tents that disrupt college life? Should we use lie detector tests to determine the loyalty of employees?

Are these incidents a tipping point for American Democracy to turn into something different and demonstrably less than the founding principles of American government?

TOO LATE

Ideally, public good and ethics will be taught in advance of the melding of technology and government, i.e., not after mistakes are made. However, history suggests humans will blunder down the road of experience with A.I., making mistakes, and trying to correct them after they occur.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.

The Technological Republic (Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West)

By: Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska

Narrated By: Nicholas W. Zamiska

Alex Karp (Founder of software firm Palantir Technologies)

The authors are the founder and operations manager of the American software company, Palantir Technolgies. Palantir has been hired by the U. S. Department of Defense, the Intelligence Community, agencies of NATO countries, and Western corporations to provide analytic platforms for defense analysis, healthcare, finance, and manufacturing.

They believe artificial intelligence research and development has lost its way.

They argue Silicon Valley has lost focus on what is important for survival of society and Western values. They suggest A.I. should be focusing on serving humanity in ways that responsibly regulate nuclear weapons and protect society from existential risks like climate change, pandemics, asteroid collisions, etc., that threaten human extinction. The authors provide a powerful criticism of technology and its national purpose.

Karp and Zamiska argue that technology is focusing on consumerism rather nuclear annihilation or existential risk.

By focusing on convenience and entertainment for financial success, fundamental problems like the threat of nuclear war, homelessness, inequality, and climate change are ignored or relegated to the trash heap of history. (“Trash heap of history” is the belief that what happens, happens and society can do nothing about it.) The west has become complacent with short-term focus on profit and consumer demand. The authors argue that the greater good is no longer thought of as an important societal goal. The primary goal is making money that enriches creators and company owners by making purchases more convenient to and for consumers.

Aldous Huxley (English writer and philosopher, 1894-1963, author of “Brave New World”.)

Their argument is there should be more collaboration between tech and government. Historically, government is only as good as the information it has to make societal decisions. A computer program can be programmed with false information like the error of weapons of mass destruction that led to an invasion of Iraq that was a bad decision. The domino theory input that led to the Vietnam war; so, on and so on. There is also the threat of an elected President that uses the power of technology to do the wrong thing because of his/her incompetence. There is the risk of government gathering personal information and using it to cross the line into a “Brave New World” where innovation, free thought, and independent action are discouraged or legislated against so people can be sent to jail for breaking the law?

Possibly, melding technology with government is an answer, but it is a chicken and egg concern. Education about public good and ethical practices should begin as soon as the egg cracks, not after hatchlings are already old enough to work. Phrases that come to mind are “What’s done is done” or “The die is cast”.

The authors argue the West needs to up-its-game if it wishes to create a peaceful and prosperous future for a society that is founded on the ideal of human freedom.

Without future generations creating policies based on ethical purpose for the public good, one infers western culture will spiral into individual isolation and self-interest that diminishes western culture and ideals.

HOMELESSNESS

The United States is the 7th richest nation in the world on a per capita basis. Why is homelessness a growing problem in outwardly prosperous American cities?

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Seeking Shelter (A Working Mother, Her Children and a Story of Homelessness in America)

By: Jeff Hobbes

Narrated By: Julia Whelan

Jeff Hobbes (Author, graduate of Yale with a BA in English language and literature.)

Homelessness can be seen in most large cities of the world. In personal travels to what look like prosperous cities like Vilnius, Lithuania, Hong Kong, China, and even Scandanavian countries, homelessness exists. However, the scope of homelessness does not compare to what is seen on the streets of Las Vegas, NV. and Seattle, WA, two larger American cities considered prosperous and growing. In 2024, there were an estimated 7,928 homeless in Clark County (the Las Vegas area) and 16,385 in King County (the Seattle area). Walking around these two cities, let alone reading or listening to the news, suggests those numbers are grossly undercounting the homeless. The United States is the 7th richest nation in the world on a per capita basis. Why is homelessness a growing problem in outwardly prosperous American cities?

Trump followers would argue homelessness is because of illegal immigration and laziness.

The real reasons are decades of underbuilding in major American cities, high cost of existing inventory, regulatory barriers for affordable housing, economic inequality, an attitude of “not in my back yard”, investment conglomerates that capture housing for rent, and the decline of federally funded affordable housing.

Jeff Hobbes brings all of these reasons for homelessness to light with the plight of working mothers and their children who are moving from one area of California to another because they cannot afford a place to live, school their children, and feed their family.

Hobbes’ example is of a family on the road with savings of $4,000 in a search for a job, a school for her children, and a place to live that they can afford. What is abundantly clear in Hobbes’ book is women hold broken families together more often than men. Misogyny is a reinforced truth in the world. Men spread their seed, begat children, and leave. Women take on the burden of the world’s future.

Homeless single parents with children to care for must often leave their children alone while seeking work to pay for the basic needs of life.

A woman faces greater obstacles than a homeless man because of unequal opportunities ranging from income for work to their presumed and assumed responsibility for children’s care. The general public often presumes they have their own lives to live and have no responsibility for others who have made foolish decisions in their lives. However, a rational person knows children are the future of the world. A child left on his/her own have diminishing opportunities for success without parental support. A child of a homeless single parent’s support is compromised when that single parent has to work to earn enough for the family to have a home and food to eat.

Having the personal experience of being raised by a single parent with an older brother, Hobbes’ history of a mother, on her own, fairly explains how difficult it is to avoid homelessness while looking for work and caring for her children.

The price paid for homelessness on the emotional and intellectual ability of a mother and her children is immeasurable. The cost to society is partly explained by Jeff Hobbes’ in “Seeking Shelter”. California’s system of caring for the homeless is encouraging but undoubtedly inadequate based on what one reads in the press.

Listening to the stories of homeless families is a harsh lesson for those who have escaped poverty and think if they can do it, why can’t every American do it?

Failure to address homelessness is a societal flaw. Whatever its cause, homelessness makes every citizen of prosperous nations guilty of neglect.

PARENTING

Tara Westover’s trials are distressing for a listener/reader of her memoir, but all children are born into a struggle to find their own identity. “Educated” is evidence of Tara’s escape from prejudice and ignorance. It is an encouraging story of recovery with an education she acquires from a lived life.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Educated (A Memoir)

By: Tara Westover

Narrated By: Julia Whelan

Tara Westover (Author, memoirist, essayist and historian.)

“Educated” is a memoir of Tara Westover’s childhood in America. Her story is personal but universal. Some children are born in caring and nurturing families, all are subject to parents’ strengths and weaknesses. Tara reflects on the life of her family with a father, mother, and siblings raised in a family with a survivalist father who has strong religious beliefs and antigovernment views of life. He raises his sons and a daughter with a wife who conforms to his wishes and a mother-in-law who believes he is wrong about public education and the value of extreme beliefs in independence.

Tara Westover reminds listener/readers that every culture in the world is blessed and cursed by diversity.

Westover’s father would be called an American “antigovernment extremist” and “survivalist”. He does not believe in institutions of government or public services and argues all forms of regulation outside the family distort the natural state of society. He believes it is necessary to hoard food, fuel, and human necessities to assure self-sufficiency in the event of natural disasters or government-imposed laws.

The Weaver Family Tragedy in August 1992 is an important symbol to Tara’s father.

Randy Weaver held antigovernment and white separatist views. His wife and son were killed by FBI agents on Ruby Ridge. A settlement of $3.1 million for wrongful deaths is awarded Weaver on August 15, 1995.

The Westover father grooms his children to support the family in a scrap metal business that evolves into a contracting company. As the children of the family mature, some leave while the father expands the family business with employment of outsiders. As Tara matures, she reluctantly becomes a worker in the family business to earn enough money to go to college. As Westover writes her story one wonders if her father will be the cause of the next Weaver Family Tragedy.

Westover shows how work and American life is not a fairy tale but for most a struggle for survival just as it is in every culture.

Desire has no limits. Freedom allows one to cope with life and, in some cases, exceed its limitations. Some cultures offer more freedom than others. Whether raised in America or somewhere else, one’s education comes from the culture in which they live. The circumstances of family are a part of a child’s education, but formal education varies within and between nations. Most nations have some form of public education, but education occurs whether publicly or privately pursued. The Westover family, in their children’s grade school and high school years rely on their mother’s home schooling.

The Westover’ family is neither a “Leave it to Beaver”, “My Three Sons”, or TV produced fantasy.

It is a reflection of a family dealing with the hardship of life in America that is sustained by a culture of independence and self-determination. Every child is impacted by the family in which they are raised. Whether government supported education or not, every child becomes an educated adult in different ways. Some like Tara Westover grow to adulthood with an education that comes from self-determination and grit despite her father’s influence and her sibling’s erratic behavior toward her.

Children do not choose their parents. Every child grows to adulthood in their own way.

There is always some level of care and nurturing in every family. The level of care they receive varies but ultimately it is how they deal with the circumstances in which they live that determines who they become. Two nearly fatal car accidents for Tara’s family and her near ejection from her family at age 16 seem to make her stronger. Her ability to write this memoir is a tribute to her determination to live a fulfilling life. The genetics of life have magnified and fortified the Westover children’s successes and failures in life.

Breaking free of prejudice and ignorance, whether one is formally educated or un-schooled, is difficult.

Prejudice is difficult because it is founded on emotional blindness shared by fellow travelers. Ignorance is founded on refusal of facts and knowledge of history. Two of the Westover sons and Tara seem to break the cycle. The first boy to leave the nest is on his way to Purdue after graduating from BYU. The second boy is believed by his father to be a genius and given license by his father to apply to BYU. One wonders whether the second boy will escape the curse of prejudice and ignorance of his remarkable family. Tara Westover’s trials are distressing for a listener/reader of her memoir, but all children are born into a struggle to find their own identity. “Educated” is evidence of Tara’s escape from prejudice and ignorance. It is an encouraging story of recovery with an education she acquires from a lived life.

VIRTUE

Today is a time for Americans to look at their motivations to act in ways that diminish human flourishing and happiness. They need to decide whether they are choosing to be evil and act out of malice to do evil things.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Open Socrates (The Case for a Philosophical Life)

By: Agnes Callard

Narrated By: Agnes Callard

Agnes Callard (Author, American philosopher, associate professor of philosophy at the University of Chicago.)

“Open Socrates” is not an easy listen but offers insight to the philosophy of Socrates as perceived by a tenured Philosophy professor at the University of Chicago.One of Socrates famous sayings is “Οἶδα τι οὐδὲν οἶδα”, “I know something that I know nothing”. The daunting meaning of the phrase is explained by Callard as something that is found through conversational engagement with others. Socrates believed what truth there is in the world is revealed through public engagement which is difficult for introverts because we fear having our ignorance exposed.

Callard notes that Socrates is an interrogator who elicits others to understand the meaning of human life.

There is a human desire to have meaning in our lives, but we don’t know where to begin or what questions to ask. Callard notes how Tolstoy is contemplating suicide despite his great fame and success as a writer because he does not believe there is any meaning to his life. Callard argues Socrates would say Tolstoy fails to ask questions in conversation with others that would offer the answer he seeks. As a listener/reader one might understand Tolstoy’s reluctance to ask others for their opinion because it exposes his vulnerability. Collard argues one must be willing to admit their errors to get to meaningful conversations with others about what they are discussing. However, few have the strength of character to expose themselves in a way that will continue further conversation.

Collard is preparing listeners for an understanding of the Socratic method, a cooperative dialogue, i.e. asking and answering questions to make one think about underlying assumptions and ideas to uncover inconsistencies to try to discover truth.

One wonders in this exercise, if Socrates is pursuing understanding or building a case to undermine human understanding. The result of a dialog with Socrates seems at best a pursuit of knowledge without finding a definitive answer. At times it seems the Socratic method only reveals the truth of human ignorance.

Collard notes that sophists as reflected in the Platonic and Aristotelian writings about Socrates were often incensed by the Socratic method because Socrates’ interrogations often made them look ignorant and uninformed. However, Socrates offers some definitions of important human characteristics like virtue and knowledge that are as relevant today as they were in ancient times.

Socrates defines virtue as a form of knowledge of right and wrong and those that use that knowledge will act virtuously.

Collard notes Alcibiades who lived in the time of Socrates. He was relentlessly interrogated by Socrates in an effort to elicit a better understanding of himself as Alcibiades, a politician and leader. Alcibiades made many political enemies because of shifting allegiances and political actions. He betrayed Athens in their fight with Sparta. After the fall of Athens, he is considered a threat to its new rulers.

Alcibiades (450BC-404BC, died at age 45 or 46, Athenian statesman and general.)

Alcibiades is known for his ambition, desire for power, and hedonistic lifestyle. He came into conflict with Socrates over belief in the values of wisdom and virtue. Though Alcibiades is noted in Plato’s “Symposium” to have admired and respected, Socrates, Collard notes he fundamentally disagreed with much of what Socrates reveals to him as his lack of wisdom and virtue. Alcibiades lacked self-discipline and moral integrity.

Socrates defines good as that which brings about human flourishing and happiness for one to live a fulfilling life.

Socrates argues evil is based on ignorance that compels human beings to act out of malice to do evil things.

A UKRAINE BOMB SHELL

Though Yovanovitch had nothing to do with Poroshenko’s defeat by Zelensky, it seems clear that her tenure as Ambassador to Ukraine set the table for a change in direction for Ukraine.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Lessons from the Edge (A Memoir)

By: Marie Yovanovitch

Narrated By: Marie Yovanovitch

Marie Yovanovitch (Canadian-American Author, retired senior member of the US Foreign Service.)

Marie Yovanovitch is retired from the US Foreign Service but as is widely known she was fired in the first Trump administration as US Ambassador to Ukraine in 2019. A reported reason for her firing is she is said to have resisted Trump’s effort to pressure Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden. One suspects that is partially true, but Yovanovitch shows she was a believer in equal rights for women and a supporter of Hilliary Clinton which may be additional reasons for Trump’s action to fire her. “Lessons from the Edge” is a memoir of Yovanovitch’s career as an American diplomat.

“Lessons from the Edge” is interesting because it reveals the history of how one becomes an American diplomat and what his/her role is as a representative of America. One may wonder what qualifies one to be a diplomat when some are appointed because of political connection rather than educational accomplishment or training.

Yovanovitch became a diplomat because of her education and personal ambition. Because of her background as the daughter of a Russian born father, she chooses to take classes in Russian which leads to her eventual assignment in Ukraine. Her memoir explains how her journey began and how it ended. It is a highly personal memoir that is enlightening. However, this mild journey explodes at its end. Yovanovitch comes across as a decent person caught up in the events of history, not as a giant of diplomacy but an honest and hard-working diplomat.

Marie Yovanovitch earned a BA in History and Russian Studies at Princeton. During her career she studied at the Pushkin Institute of Moscow and acquired a Master of Science in National Security Strategy from the National War College. Her background certainly qualified her for diplomatic posts. Her early assignments were in Africa which eventually led to Russian speaking countries like Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Ukraine.

Russian speaking countries.

An example of the difficulty of her job is when America wishes to maintain the American Kyrgyzstan’ Air Force base because of America’s role in Afghanistan in 2009. Kyrgyzstan offers closer logistic support for the American military.

The Kyger’ President demands an increase from a $17.4 million-dollar annual rent payment (Yovanovich indicated the rent payment was $2,000,000/yr) to $200,000,000 per year for the continuation of Kyrgyzstan’s American military base. Yovanovich implies Kyrgyzstan’s President, Mr. Bakiyev, demand for higher rent would be to line his pockets with stolen revenue, not help the citizens of Kyrgyzstan.

A final settlement increased annual rent to $60 million per year with additional payments of $37 million and $30 million for new aircraft slots and additional land for location of a new American navigation system.

Kyrgyzstan’s American Air Force Base.

Many questions come to mind in listening/reading Yovanovitch’s book. How important are the presence of American military bases around the world? What is the difference between isolationism and internationalism? Should America remain isolated from other nations or engage and collaborate with other countries of the world? Where is the line to be drawn between American influence and the cost of that influence? This last question is answered in the last chapters of “Lessons from the Edge”.

Yovanovich takes on the complicated role of American Ambassador to Armenia from 2008 to 2011.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are a source of political and territorial tension. There is a dispute over a region called Nagorno-Karabakh that is under the control of Armenia with a majority Armenian population. Turkey supports Azerbaijan while Armenia has a close relationship with Russia. Armenia and Turkey’s relationship is strained because of a WWI Armenian Genocide perpetrated by Turkey. An estimated 600,000 to 1.5 million Armenians were killed between 1915 and 1917. Turkey refuses to identify it as genocide which aggravates Turkey’s relationship with Armenia. Russia has a military base in Armenia and has tried to mediate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict without much success. Because of energy projects and trade relations, Russia has managed a balanced relationship with Azerbaijan.

Yovanovitch decides to return to the U.S. because of her aging mother and an offer to take the role of Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs. However, as Ukraine becomes embroiled in a conflict with Russia and her previous assignment and knowledge of Ukraine, she returns as America’s Ambassador. Her mother’s decision to accompany her made the opportunity worth taking.

When Ukraine became independent of the U.S.S.R. in 1991, its transition to a market economy was marked by widespread corruption in the same way as alleged in Russia.

The assets of the country fell into the hands of Ukraine’s leaders who became wealthy oligarchs at the expense of the general population. Election to the leadership of Ukraine gave Presidents like Viktor Yanukovych, who served from 2010 to 2014, license to embezzle state funds. Compounding that corruption were Ukrainian bank owners who were equally corrupt. The fifth president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko faces allegations of corruption with his ownership of the International Investment Bank (IIB).

Rudy Giuliani (American politician, former NY mayor, former U.S. Associate Attorney General–now a disbarred lawyer.)

As if Rudy Giuliani needs no further damage to his reputation than his lies about election fraud, Yovanovitch reveals his role in discrediting her reputation with false accusations about badmouthing Trump as the new President of the United States. Judging from Yovanovitch’s book, Trump is unlikely to have been someone she admired. However, as an experienced diplomat, it is inconceivable that she would have undermined Trump or any U.S. President’s reputation. Trump ordered Yovanovitch’s removal. She is recalled in May 2019.

Volodymyr Zelensky became the President of Ukraine in May of 2019.

Zelensky soundly defeated the corrupt Vasily Poroshenko with 73% of the vote.

Though Yovanovitch had nothing to do with Poroshenko’s defeat by Zelensky, it seems clear that her tenure as Ambassador to Ukraine set the table for a change in direction for Ukraine. This is a very personal memoir of Yovanovitch’s career that is somewhat marred by a plaintive melancholy about life and an aging mother but “Lessons from the Edge” is highly informative about what it takes to be an American diplomat.

America makes a mistake if it chooses to isolate itself from allied countries that have similar economic and political aspirations. It may be time to reset America’s international relations, but isolation is not a rational alternative for an interdependent ecological and economic world.

AI REGULATION

As Suleyman and Bhaskar infer, ignoring the threat of AI because of the difficulty of regulation is no reason to abandon the effort.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Coming Wave

By: Mustafa Suleyman with Michael Bhaskar

Narrated By: Mustafa Suleyman

Mustafa Suleyman (British entrepreneur, CEO Microsoft AI)

This is a startling book about AI because it is written by an AI entrepreneur who is the founder and former head of applied AI at DeepMind. He is also the CEO of Microsoft AI. What the authors argue is not understood by many who discount the threat of AI. They explain AI can collate information that creates societal solutions, as well as threats, that are beyond the thought and reasoning ability of human beings.

“The Coming Wave” is startling because it is written by two authors who have an intimate understanding of the science of AI.

They argue it is critically important for AI research and development to be internationally regulated with the same seriousness that accompanied the research and use of the atom bomb.

If AI has the monumental risk Suleyman and Bhaskar describe, it remains the responsibility of humanity to manage it wisely.

Those who have read this blog know the perspective of this writer is that AI, whether it has greater risk than the atom bomb or not is a tool, not a controller, of humanity. The AI’ threat example given by Suleyman and Bhaskar is that AI has the potential for invention of a genetic modification that could as easily destroy as improve humanity. Recognizing AI’s danger is commendable but like the atom bomb, there will always be a threat of miscreant nations or radicals that have the use of a nuclear device or AI to initiate Armagedón. Obviously, if AI is the threat they suggest, there needs to be an antidote. The last chapters of “The Coming Wave” offer their solution. The authors suggest a 10-step program to regulate or ameliorate the threat of AI’s misuse.

Like alcoholism and nuclear bomb deterrence, Suleyman’s program will be as effective as those who choose to follow the rules.

There are no simple solutions for regulation of AI and as history shows neither Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) nor the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has been completely successful.

Suleyman suggests the first step in regulating AI begins with creating safeguards for the vast LLM capabilities of Artificial Intelligence.

This will require the hiring of technicians to monitor and adjust incorrect or misleading information accumulated and distributed by AI users. The concern of many will be the restriction on “freedom of speech”. Additionally, two concerns are the cost of such a bureaucracy and who monitors the monitors. Who draws the line between fact and fiction? When does information deletion become a distortion of fact? This bureaucracy will be responsible for auditing AI models to understand what their capabilities are and what limitations they have.

A second step is to slow the process of AI development by controlling the sale and distribution of the hardware components of AI to provide more time for reviewing new development impacts.

With lucrative incentives for new AI capabilities in a capitalist system there is likely to be a lot of resistance by aggressive entrepreneurs, free-trade and free-speech believers. Leaders in authoritarian countries will be equally incensed by interference in their right to rule.

Transparency is a critical part of the vetting process for AI development.

Suleyman suggests critics need to be involved in new developments to balance greed and power against utilitarian value. There has to be an ethical examination of AI that goes beyond profitability for individuals or control by governments. The bureaucracies for development, review, and regulation should be designed to adapt, reform, and implement regulations to manage AI technologies responsibly. These regulations should be established through global treaties and alliances among all nations of the world.

Suleyman acknowledges this is a big ask and notes there will be many failures in getting cooperation or adherence to AI regulation.

That is and was true of nuclear armament and so far, there has been no use of nuclear weapons to attack other countries. The authors note there will be failures in trying to institute these guidelines but with the help of public awareness and grassroots support, there is hope for the greater good that can come from AI.

As Suleyman and Bhaskar infer, ignoring the threat of AI because of the difficulty of regulation is no reason to abandon the effort.

THE DISMAL SCIENCE

It appears to this listener/reader, the rise of authoritarianism in the world today lays at the feet of Marx and, to a lesser extent, von Mises’ economic theories.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Human Action: A Treatise on Economics

By: Ludwig von Mises

Narrated By: Jeff Riggenbach

Ludwig von Mises (Austrian-American economist, logician, sociologist, and philosopher. 1881-1973, died at age 92.)

Economics is defined as a social science that studies how individuals, businesses, governments, and societies allocate resources to satisfy the needs and desires of a community of people. Historically, one of the greatest explainers of this social science is Ludwig von Mises. Maturing at a time of the communist revolution, the advance of capitalism and both world wars, von-Mises offers one of the greatest books about economics since Adam Smith. The only economist of greater significance is Adam Smith (1723-1790) because of his origination of the principles of economics. Close behind are Karl Marx (1818-1883), and John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946).

KARL MARX (BORN TRIER, GERMANY 1818-DIED LONDON, ENGLAND 1883)

Of course, all economists are beholding to Adam Smith with his original conception of the dismal science. Smith conceived of the “invisible hand” of economics that postulated self-interest as the primary contributor to the overall good of society. Von Mises seems to guardedly agree but suggests self-interest’ market pricing can artificially distort distribution of economic resources. Von Mises infers the “invisible hand” is inefficient at the least and may artificially distort prices in the hands of authoritarian governments and business monopolies. Karl Marx suggests the invisible hand would evolve into a production system that would be owned by the public to ensure equality of distribution in an evolutionary economy that passes from capitalism to socialism, and finally communism. Marx argues self-interest will evolve into a common interest for all. Marx’s idea of change in the nature of human beings beggars the imagination.

Smith supported limited government intervention to maintain justice, defense, and public works.

Both Smith and Marx believed in a “labor theory of value” which argues the value of a commodity is determined by the labor required to produce it. Where Smith and Marx depart is in government enforcement of a balance between labor and the cost of goods. Von Mises opposed most forms of governmental intervention in the economy. However, Keynes argues government intervention is necessary during economic downturns. After WWII, Keynes theory became an important part of the American government’s support of European reconstruction.

Von Mises believed in human individualism which carries the risk of authoritarian domination.

Von Mises believed in human individualism while Smith and Keynes support limited government intervention. Marx argues human nature could be shaped by a melding of government dictatorship with societal pressures to support communal goals.

None of the economists seem to fully understand human nature will always get in the way of economic growth.

At extremes, von Mises endorses individualism and Marx endorses dictatorship. The middle ground seems held by Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes that endorse limited government intervention. It appears to this listener/reader, the rise of authoritarianism in the world today lays at the feet of Marx and, to a lesser extent, von Mises’ economic theories.

The length and value of von Mises’ book overwhelms a non-economist listener with his esoteric statistical and lengthy explanations of economic theory. However, comparison with a dilatant’s understanding of other renown economists is enlightening.

AUTHORITARIANISM

Whether an idealist or humanist, the historical truth is that rising authoritarians believe power is all that matters. Today, the world seems at the threshold of authoritarianism.

Books of Interest
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Bronshtein in the Bronx

By: Robert Littell

Narrated By: Adam Grupper

Robert Littell (American author, former journalist in France.)

Robert Littell researches and imagines the 10 days of Leon Trotsky’s visit to New York City in 1917, just before the Russian revolution. His story offers humanizing and demeaning aspects of Trotsky’s personal and political life as a revolutionary.

Lev Davidovich Bronstein aka Leon Trotsky (1879-1940, Russian revolutionary, politician, political theorist, revolutionary military leader.)

Littell explains Trotsky travels with his two young sons and a female companion (the mother of their two boys) to New York. His first wife is exiled in Siberia for helping him spread leaflets about terrible factory conditions in Czarist Russia. Trotsky escaped to England while leaving his first wife and their two young girls in Siberia. (Trotsky divorces his first wife and marries the woman that Littel calls his airplane companion, either before or after the trip to New York. This is not made clear in Littell’s story.)

Trotsky in New York, 1917 | Kenneth Ackerman

Littell explains Trotsky is a kind of celebrity in New York because of his association with socialist beliefs and his involvement in the failed 1905 Russian Revolution.

Trotsky is in his early twenties when he arrives in New York. Littell characterizes Trotsky as a libertine by introducing a female reporter in New York who becomes his lover. Littell reinforces that libertinism at the end of his story by suggesting Trotsky and Frida Kahlo had an affair while his second wife and he were exiled in Mexico.

Aside from Trotsky’s picadilloes, Littell shows how committed Trotsky was to his belief in Marxism and the plight of the working poor.

Trotsky gave several speeches that appealed to New York laborers and their families. An interesting sidelight is appended to Littell’s story when a Jewish industrialist meets with Trotsky after the 1917 revolution in Russia. Naturally, Trotsky is anxious to return to support Lenin and the Bolsheviks in the revolution. However, Trotsky is broke and doesn’t have the money to return to Russia. The industrialist offers an envelope with the money needed for the trip. Neither the industrialist nor Trotsky are believers in the Jewish faith but believe in the power of socialism and its benefit to society.

The political point being made by Littell is that the ideal of communism supersedes religious beliefs.

Trotsky is Jewish but not a believer in God. He is a political idealist. Littell notes Trotsky becomes a military leader in the communist movement. Littell infers Trotsky’s idealism gets in the way of humanism when he orders one in ten prisoners be shot for their opposition to the communist revolution. This is undoubtedly an apocryphal story but a way of explaining how a committed idealist can become a murderous tyrant.

Littell ends his story with a brief and somewhat inaccurate history of the Trotsky’ children. The two girls with his first wife died before they were 30. Zinada had mental health issues and died by suicide in 1933. Nina died at age 26 without any detailed information about her cause of death.

Rather than two boys noted in Littell’s story of the trip to New York, one was a girl named Zinaida. Zinaida, like her half-sister, died by suicide at age 32. Lev, born in 1906, is believed to have been poisoned by Stalinist agents in 1938. As some know, Trotsky was murdered by Stalin’s agents in Mexico City. In contrast to his children, Trotsky, the political idealist, is murdered as an exile at the age of 60. All-in-all, a tragic family history.

Whether an idealist or humanist, the historical truth is that rising authoritarians believe power is all that matters. Today, the world seems at the threshold of authoritarianism.

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