Category: EDUCATION

AI TRANSITION

The potential of AI is akin to the Industrial Revolution, yet it could surpass it significantly if managed correctly by humans.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The AI-Savvy Leader (Nine Ways to Take Back Control and Make AI Work)

By: David De Cremer

Narrated By: David Marantz

David De Cremer (Author, Belgian born professor at Northeastern University in Boston, and behavioral scientist with academic studies in economics and psychology.)

“The AI-Savvy Leader” should be required reading for every organization investing in artificial intelligence for performance improvement. From government to business, to eleemosynary organizations, De Cremer offers a guide for organizational transition from physical labor to labor-saving benefits of AI.

AI offers the working world the opportunity to increase their productivity without the mind-numbing physical labor of assembly lines and administrative scut work.

Like assembly line production implemented by Ford and work report filing and writing during the industrial revolution, AI offers an opportunity to increase productivity without the mind-numbing physical labor of assembly line work and after-work’ analysis reports. With AI, more time is provided to workers to think and do what can be done to be more productive.

Arguably, AI is similar to the industrial revolutions transition to assembly line work. Assembly line work improved over time by changes that made it more productive. Why would one think that AI is any different? It is just another tool for improving productivity. The concern is that AI means less labor will be required and that workers will lose their jobs. De Cremer notes loss of employment is one of the greatest concerns of employees working for an organization transitioning to AI. Too many times organizations are looking at reducing costs with AI rather than increasing productivity.

The solution identified by De Cremer is to make AI transition human centered.

His point is that organizations need to understand the human impact of AI on employees’ work process. AI should not only be viewed as a cost-cutting process but as a process of reducing repetitive work for labor to make added contributions to an organization’s goals. AI does not guarantee continued employment, but reduced manual labor offers time and incentive to improve organization productivity through employee’ cooperation rather than opposition. AI is mistakenly viewed as an enemy of labor when, in fact, it is a liberator of labor that provides time to do more than tighten bolts on an auto body frame.

AI is not a panacea for labor and can be a threat just like industrialization was to many craftsmen.

But, like craftsman that went to work for industries, today’s labor will join organizations that have successfully transitioned to AI with a human-centered rather than cost-reduction mentality. Labor productivity is only a part of what any AI transition provides an organization. What is often discounted is customer service because labor is consumed by repetitive work. If AI improves labor productivity, more time can be provided to an organization’s customers.

When AI is properly human centered, the customer can be offered more personal attention by fellow human beings employed by an AI organization.

Too many organizations are using AI to respond to customer complaints. Human-centered AI becomes a win-win opportunity because labor is not consumed by production and has the time to understand customer unhappiness with service or product. AI does not think like a human. AI only responds based on the memory of what AI has been programmed to recall. With human handling of customer complaints, problems are more clearly understood. Opportunity for customer satisfaction is improved.

De Creamer acknowledges AI has introduced much closer monitoring of worker performance and carries some of the same mind-numbing work introduced in assembly line manufacturing.

De Creamer suggests negative consequences of AI should be dealt with directly with employees when AI becomes a problem. Part of a human-centered AI organization’s responsibility is allowing employees to take breaks during their workday without being penalized for slackening production. Repetitive tasks have always been a drain on productivity, but it has to be recognized and responded to in the light of overall productivity of an organization.

AI, like the industrial revolution, is shown as a great opportunity for human beings.

De Creamer suggests AI is not and will never be human. To De Creamer AI is a recallable knowledge accumulator and is only a programmed tool of human minds, not a replacement for human thought and understanding. The potential of AI is akin to the Industrial Revolution, yet it could surpass it significantly if managed correctly by humans.

CLICKS

Just as McCulloch’s history shows how the internet changed yesterday, it seems A.I. will change the future.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

How the Internet Happened (From Netscape to the iPhone)

By: Brian McCullough

Narrated By: Timothy Pabon

Brian McCullough (Author, CEO of Resume Writers.com, entrepreneur.)

A book about the beginning of the internet is such old news, one is inclined to put this book aside. The internet was born in the 1960s and only became recognizable in the 1980s. However, even in 2024, it is interesting to hear about early users who became rich just by organizing information on an easily accessible and free media platform.

Like this blog, it is rewarding to write something that others are interested in reading.

The exercise of book reviews is a reward to one’s education and an ego boost for a writer from an audiences’ clicks. Brian McCullough tells the story of the founders of YAHOO, Jerry Yang and David Filo who were in college and became fascinated by the World Wide Web because of information it offered with clicks on a computer board. This was in the 1990s. Though there were many websites to choose from, they were disorganized and difficult to find if you were looking for specific information. Yang and Filo began organizing the websites by their offered information. YAHOO’S founders were looking for information of interest to them, and presumed others would like to know how they could use a keyboard to find information they might need or want.

Jerry Yang and David Filo were fascinated by what could be found on the internet.

They spent hours, days, weeks, months that grew into years organizing website addresses so others could find what was interesting to them. In these early years, making money was not their primary objective. They did not use their site to advertise products for income. They felt clicks were their reward and that clicks would be lost if advertisers were allowed to use their site. They chose to have users pay a fee to become members of their site. Their use and organization of the internet became an obsession for them and followers steadily increased. Their click numbers and users rose into the millions and advertisers were again knocking at their door. They resisted until they realized their idea could be worth something more than their interest in learning, gathering, and organizing knowledge. They relented, allowed advertising, and the clicks to their site kept on rising. YAHOO went public. The rest is history.

McCulloch goes on to describe the rise and fall of companies that capitalize on the internet.

The companies ranged from behemoth companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Ebay that rocketed to the stratosphere while Priceline.com, Netscape, Pets.com, Webvan and others plunged into the abyss. This is not to say today’s behemoths will continue to dominate the market or that some new company will replace their success with even greater appeal. A.I., like the internet, may be a killer discovery that makes or breaks today’s behemoths into tomorrow’s also-rans or hangers-on.

McCulloch’s history is interesting because it explains how winners understood the future better than losers understood the present.

It’s fascinating to find Apple’s Jobs resisted creation of the iPhone but employees worked secretly to refine the idea and Jobs eventually agreed. McCulloch also reveals the monopolistic nature of today’s winners and the threat they present to the future. Killer ideas of today’s tech companies capitalize on the internet’s information ubiquity, and how it can be organized to offer product to the world at a competitive price.

A.I. is a new idea that organizes information on its own with consequences to the public that are yet to be realized. Just as McCulloch’s history shows how the internet changed yesterday, it seems A.I. will change the future.

A.I.s’ CROSSROAD

The greatest threat of A.I. is that the ubiquity of information will turn people and countries against each other.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Feeding the Machine (The Hidden Human Labor Powering A.I.)

By: Mark Graham, Callum Cant, James Muldoon

Narrated By: Orlando Wells

Mark Graham
Callum Cant
James Muldoon

Graham, Cant, and Muldoon have backgrounds that offer an educated opinion about the impact of artificial intelligence on the world labor market. Graham is a Professor of Internet Geography affiliated with the University of Oxford’s School of Geography and the Environment. Cant is a researcher and labor rights advocate for workers in the gig economy. Muldoon is an Associate Professor in Mangement and Head of Digital Research at a think tank on modern technologies.

“Feeding the Machine” reminds one of the Industrial Revolution in its early stages.

The fear of loss of jobs because of machine replacement led to the Luddite movement that destroyed machines manufacturing products. The quality of machine-produced product may not have met craftsman standards, but production cost was so much less, the public preferred the lower-cost product. As the industrial revolution grew, the quality of production improved, and many craftsmen lost their jobs. Many of these craftsmen had to find new jobs. Some became users of machines to produce product. The transition was undoubtedly difficult because it required changes in the way people work. Rather than working for themselves, they had to work for manufacturers that produced products with machines. Craftsman had to work regular hours for a wage rather than sell product based on their exclusive labor. Karl Marx in “Das Kapital” explained that capitalism devalued worker’s contribution to society because they were not compensated fairly for their work based on profits earned by company’ owners.

Workers began to unionize to increase their political power and influence on managers of companies owned by entrepreneurs.

The results of unionization have been to begin equalizing wages and company profits. That equalization is a battle between corporate profit needed to stay in business, reasonable return to company owners, and livable wages for workers. When any of these three are out of balance, companies either go bankrupt, or find an acceptable balance that serves the needs of all.

Information is energy in today’s A.I. world., just as steam was in the industrial revolution.

As one listens to “Feeding the Machine” which claims A.I. produces poor quality energy is like early steam engines that provided inadequate energy. Who can say that A.I. “energy” will not improve just as steam engines improved? One becomes skeptical about the authenticity of the authors’ opinion. It seems too soon to believe A.I. power will not improve human life, just as steam engine power improved product quality and lowered consumer prices.

The authors make valid points about the impact of A.I. on workers.

Workers are often paid a pittance for repetitive work that is mind numbing because of the need to monitor digital information for its accuracy and quality. Is that significantly different than the repetitive motions needed by workers on a production line for manufactured goods? Henry Ford changed the way cars are produced by creating assembly line work that gave repetitive jobs to workers. Is that repetitive work much different than digital inspection by workers of A.I. production?

The many examples the authors give of remote workers’ wages for digital accuracy in Africa and other poverty-stricken areas of the world is heart rending. These new laborers are paid small wages that assure continued poverty. Economic inequality is a crime against humanity. Improving education seems the only sure way of defeating economic inequality. Education is a long road to travel but there seems no solution for economic insecurity without it.

Having traveled to Africa, seeing firsthand a dedicated teacher in a class of school children, one feels there is hope that the world’s economic insecurity will end.

Ford was a conservative right-wing businessperson by any measure. He supported Hitler because he was an authoritarian that resurrected a faltering German economy. However, Ford recognized workers were consumers and despite low wages for automobile workers of his time, he chose to raise wages. Ford recognized workers were also consumers. That remains true today. It seems reasonable to presume, unlivable wages will rise for digital workers around the world for the same reason the conservative Ford raised his worker’s wages.

This is not to say, what the author’s write is wrong about workers in Africa that are exhausted from repetitive work at an A.I. company but that the world is at a crossroad similar to the industrial revolution.

The world will change based on the weight of people’s discontent. The greatest threat of A.I. is that information ubiquity will turn people and countries against each other. The result may be a nuclear holocaust that changes the world and societies in a way that is impossible to predict.

The war in Ukraine.

The authors go on to explains how A.I. dehumanizes society. Creating a world-wide’ assembly line for product production allows companies to reduce their production costs by hiring workers around the world who are eager to have an income to improve their lives. The consequences to companies in the host country are improved profits. The consequence to host countries’ workers are layoffs and loss of income. A country of wealth has tools to mitigate worker layoffs, poorer countries do not. Laid off workers have better chances of finding new jobs in wealthy countries. This is not to minimize the consequence but to suggest the world is benefited more than harmed by A.I.

A point made by the authors that played out in the actor strike in America is that actors should be compensated for any work generated by A.I. images or voices of actors.

A.I. that generates false images should be penalized for misrepresenting real people without their consent. Another caution suggested by the authors is that A.I. can recreate art that is equivalent to todays and past literary and visual artists. That seems somewhat hyperbolic but if it is true, society has the tools to penalize those who choose to use A.I. to deceive the public. A.I. is only a tool of society. It is a source of energy that can destroy but also improve the lives of humanity. The authors note only minds are truly creative. A.I. is a recreator of the past, not the future. The use of A.I. by humans improves creative potential.

IN THE LAST CHAPTERS OF “FEEDING THE MACHINE”, THE AUTHORS SOUND AN ALARM BY NOTING THE CONTROL EXCERCISED BY INTERNET MOGULS WHO DIRECT THEIR EMPLOYEES TO CODE ALGORITHMS TO MEET THE NEEDS OF THEIR COMPANIES. THIS IS A SMILAR POWER EXERCISED BY ROBBER BARONS OF THE LATE 19TH CENTURY. DEMOCRACRATIC CAPITALISM COPED WITH ROBBER BARON’S HEGEMONIC POWER THROUGH GOVERNMENT HEARINGS AND OVERSIGHT. ELECTED OFFICIALS SEEM WILLING TO COPE WITH MEDIA BARONS OF THIS CENTURY IN THE SAME WAY. PUBLIC HEARINGS AND GOVERNMENT OVERSIGHT OF MEDIA MOGULS ARE BEING CONDUCTED TODAY.

A.I.’S Future

The question is–will humans or A.I. decide whether artificial intelligence is a tool or controller and regulator of society.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Co-Intelligence” 

By: Ethan Mollick

Narrated by: Ethan Mollick

Ethan Mollick (Author, Associate Professor–University of Pennsylvania who teaches innovation and entrepreneurship. Mollick received a PhD and MBA from MIT.)

“Co-Intelligence” is an eye-opening introduction to an understanding of artificial intelligence, i.e., its benefits and risks. Ethan Mollick offers an easily understandable introduction to what seems a discovery equivalent to the age of enlightenment. The ramification of A.I. on the future of society is immense. That may seem hyperbolic, but the world dramatically changed with the enlightenment and subsequent industrial revolution in ways that remind one of what A.I. is beginning today.

Mollick explains how A.I. uses what is called an LLM (Large Language Model) to consume every written text in the world and use that information to create ideas and responses to human questions about yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Unlike the limitation of human memory, A.I. has the potential of recalling everything that has been documented by human beings since the beginning of written language. A.I. uses that information to formulate responses to human inquiry. The point is that A.I. has no conscience about what is right or wrong, true or false, moral or immoral.

A.I. can as easily fabricate a lie as a truth because it draws on what others have written or spoken.

The risk of that A.I. capability is that its source of response can be as diverse as recall of “Mein Kamph” beliefs, a biblical texMORALITYt, or the written records of ancient and modern philosophers.

Additionally, Mollick notes that A.I. is capable of reproducing a person’s speech and appearance so that it is nearly impossible to note the differences between the real and artificial representation. It becomes possible for the leader of any country to be artificially created to order their subordinates or tell the world they are going to invade or decimate another country by any means necessary.

Mollick argues there are four possible futures for Artificial Intelligence.

Presuming A.I. does not evolve beyond its present capability, it could still supercharge human productivity. On the other hand, A.I. might become a more sophisticated “deep fake” tool that misleads humanity. A.I. may evolve to believe only in itself and act to disrupt or eliminate human society. A fourth possibility is that A.I. will become a tool of human beings to improve societal decisions that benefit humanity. It may offer practical solutions for global warming, species preservation, interstellar travel and habitation.

The point Mollick makes is that human beings need to recognize the importance of shaping the future of A.I. by understanding and using it as a tool for the benefit society.

A.I. is not an oracle of truth. It has the memory of society at its beck and call. With that capability, humans have the opportunity to avoid mistakes of the past and pursue unknown opportunities for the future. On the other hand, humans may become complacent and allow A.I. to develop itself without human regulation. The question is–will humans or A.I. decide whether artificial intelligence is a tool or controller and regulator of society.

BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

“Drucker” is an interesting book about an important 20th century professor and storied business consultant.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Drucker” (The Man who Invented the Corporate Society)

By: John J. Tarrant

Published in 1980–No picture available of the author, John J. Tarrant.

Peter Drucker was a world-renowned business and government management consultant in the mid-twentieth century. John J. Tarrant’s personal memoir is about Peter Drucker’s business and government management beliefs. A lack of approval or acknowledgement of Tarrant’s book by Drucker reinforces one’s belief in Tarrant’s objectivity.

With my personal experience as a neophyte business manager in the 1970s, Peter Drucker was a business consultant we studied in management development classes.

There were several group meetings with other managers in the company for which I worked. In those meetings we discussed Drucker’s views on business management and practice. Drucker had a profound effect on me and how I managed my part of the business.

A fundamental point made by Drucker is that a business’ manager must focus on strengths, not weaknesses of people reporting to him or her.

The principle of that focus is that every manager is charged with setting goals while recognizing he/she needs to build around personal weaknesses with direct report’ employee’s strengths. The point is that a manager and/or employee in an organization is unlikely to know all there is to know to achieve a company’s goals. Drucker argues the purpose of business is to sustain itself by achieving determined objectives. It is not about profit but about sustaining a business’s future. That principle applies to government departments as long as they continue to serve the needs of the public. When businesses or government departments fail to preserve their future or purpose, they deserve dissolution.

What Tarrant notes in his memoir is that Drucker believes government departments do not have the same incentives as businesses and tend to become self-perpetuating when their original purpose is achieved. Businesses disappear or go bankrupt because they do not generate enough revenue to sustain their future. Drucker suggests government departments rarely disappear. They become self-perpetuating. They are protected by public taxes, not the principle of free market revenue. Tarrant infers Drucker believes government departments should be dissolved when their goals are achieved.

Tarrant categorizes Drucker as a conservative but not in a 21st century Republican sense but in a belief that government tends to waste public taxes because their goals tend to evolve from service to the public to employment-preservation. Government departments should not exist as an employment haven without public purpose.

Tarrant notes Drucker voted as a Democrat. As an Austrian born American, Tarrant notes, he only voted for a Republican President twice in his lifetime. Drucker is alleged to regret having voted Republican the two times he did. One was for Nixon and the second I can’t remember. This is not to suggest Drucker was partisan because his focus was on management, not politics. “Drucker” is an interesting book about an important 20th century professor and storied business consultant.

OCCUPATION

“Apeirogon” is a little too repetitive for this reviewer, but it is cleverly written and shows why political and military occupation is a fool’s leadership style.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Apeirogon” (A Novel)

By: Colum McCann

Narrated by: Colum McCann

Colum McCann (Author, Irish writer living in New York.)

At first the idea of an Irish author writing a book about Israel seems incongruous. After the first few paragraphs, one realizes Colum McCann grasps a truth about religious conflict that is far better than most because of Ireland’s “Troubles” between the 1960s and 1990s.

“Apeirogon” is timely novel in regard to Israel’s response to the October 7 Hamas attack in Gaza. A little history helps one understand the complexity and terrible consequence of the slaughter of innocents.

An estimated 30,228 people have been killed in Gaza, 12,000 of which are thought to be Hamas combatants.

Gaza dates back to Egyptian times, populated by Canaanites who share an ancestral connection to Israelites. Gaza later became part of the Assyrian Empire in 730 BC. Assyrians intermixed with Canaanites, Israelites, Philistines and undoubtedly Palestinians. History shows historical connection between ancient Assyrians and Palestinians just as there were with Israelites. However, Israelites were forcibly relocated to Assyria from the Kingdom of Israel. Because the Israelites were descendants of the Canaanites, they predated Palestinian settlement in Gaza. Ethnic precedent and the want of land area is a part of what complicates the idea of a separate Palestinian state. Where is a homeland for a Palestinian state going to come from?

McCann chose a perfect title for his novel. An apeirogon is a geometric shape that has an infinite number of sides; just like the many sides of Israeli/Palestinian arguments for a homeland. Column McCann cleverly explores these arguments in his novel. He creates a series of Israeli/Palestinian incidents that show how each ethnic culture believes and acts in their perceived self-interests. Every chapter is titled as a series of numbers that begin with the number 1, jumps from 500 to the number 1001; then jumps back to 500 and descends to number 1 to end his story. Revelation comes in 1001. Occupation is an evil that cannot stand.

America’s civil war carries some parallels to what is happening in Israel and Gaza.

What is revelatory about McCann’s novel is its similarities to America’s civil war that ended the lives of too many Americans. Today’s conflict in Gaza is instigated by Hamas just as the Civil War was instigated by southern slave holders. America eventually forgave southern slave holders, but Black Americans continue to suffer from institutional racism. Can a one state solution as demanded by Israel’s conservatives serve Palestinians any better than white America has served Black Americans? America’s civil war ended in 1865-1866, some 158 years later, Black Americans are still discriminated against. Can Palestinians wait more than 158 years to have equal rights in an Israeli nation?

McCann’s novel repeats, too many times, the unfairness of Israel’s occupation of Gaza. Hamas has its rebellious leaders like America had John Brown who killed one Marine, wounded another, and killed six civilians. Neither Brown nor the Hamas leaders can justify their murders though both argue with righteous conviction. The United States could have split between abolitionist and non-abolitionist states, or they could move toward reconciliation. Obviously, the U.S. government prevailed with reconciliation. It seems imperative for Israeli and Palestinian leaders to take the same road as Abraham Lincoln. Hamas is a splinter group like that led by America’s John Brown. Their objective is as horribly misguided as Brown’s. Hamas’s hostage taking and murder of Jewish settlers is as reprehensible as Brown’s murders of a Marine and six civilians.

ISRAEL’S OCCUPATION OF PALESTINE

As difficult as it may be, a two-state solution seems unlikely. What American history suggests is as difficult as America has found reconciliation to be for white America’s murder and unjust treatment of Black Americans. That reconciliation remains a work in progress. However, only union offers a way toward peace. America is not there yet but it is making progress.

Two political factions, bound by both religion and ethnicity, must learn to live with each other for peace to be achieved.

There is no other land for Palestinians. Israel may have the older of the two cultures, and both Israelites and Palestinians have a much longer history of religious and ethnic difference than America. America is founded on religious freedom and equality, though not perfect in either principle. In contrast, religion is a primary determinant in Palestinian and Israeli cultures while equality seems a less prominent concern. Peace will not come without hardship, but a beginning is dependent on Israel’s abandonment of occupation. It will be one country’s leaders’ imperative to provide equal opportunity for all its citizens. The struggle will be long as is shown by America’s history but what realistic alternative is there for the Israeli and Palestinian people? What neighboring country is likely to give up their land to create a two state solution?

“Apeirogon” is a little too repetitive for this reviewer, but it is cleverly written and shows why political and military occupation is a fool’s leadership style. Israel, like white America, needs to do better in reconciling ethnic differences.

MEMORY & INTELLIGENCE

Total recall does not make humans more intelligent or necessarily more informed about the world.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Moon walking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything“

By: Joshua Foer

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Joshua Foer (Author, freelance journalist, 2006 USA Memory Champion.)

Joshua Foer offers an interesting explanation of human memory. Foer became the 2006 USA memory champion. Foer explains how he achieved that distinction. What is interesting and surprising about Foer’s achievement is that he argues extraordinary memory is a teachable skill.

Arthur Conan Doyle (1859-1930)

Fans will remember Sir Arthur Conan Doyles’ explanation of Sherlock Homes’ prodigious memory technique called the “mind palace”.

Foer explains the idea is not a fiction but an historically proven method for improving one’s memory through association. “Mind palace” is traced back to ancient Greece as a memory tool of the Greek poet Simonides of Ceos. The idea is to associate facts with familiar features of a house in which one has lived, or of which one has intimate knowledge. The idea of memory being associated with something is not revelatory to anyone who tries to remember someone’s name. Many people, particularly good salespeople, use association to remember a customer’s name. They might remember Fred as a “red” tie or Monica as a “harmonica” and so on.

Foer suggests nothing is forgotten but only stored in one’s mind.

The problem is recalling a mind’s recorded information. If one makes a point of associating a fact with something that is familiar, say like a space in your own house, it is more likely to be recallable. Foer notes experimental studies show human brains record memories of events but may be unable to consciously recall details. In “show and tell” experiments, humans show evidence of a recorded memory by expressing familiarity, if not specificity. (“MIT research explains how our brain helps us remember what we’ve seen, even as visual information shifts around within our visual system.” See MIT NEWS Feb. 8, 2021.)

Foer suggests the history of memory began naturally with tales told and re-told before writing became a way of record keeping.

Foer explains history shows that philosophers like Socrates rejected the idea of recording information as a way of revealing truth. To Socrates, truth comes from conversational exploration of nature as it is. Foer suggests society is fortunate that Plato and Archimedes partly disagreed and chose to provide a written record of Socrates thought.

A larger picture of Foer’s view of memory and recall implies a leveling of knowledge in the world.

From an oral tradition to the written word to radio to television to the internet of things to microchips in one’s brain–the recall of facts become more widely shared. The complication of improving “knowledge leveling” is in how recalled facts are assembled by the brain of the receiver.

Foer illustrates how much effort must be put into memorizing information if one wishes to excel as a technologically unplugged person who wishes to recall more facts. It requires concentrated effort to create a mnemonic device like rooms in a house to associate a series of facts or numbers that can be recalled. On the other hand, advances in technology could make that exercise moot.

In the near future, recollection from an implanted human chip could improve correlation of facts for thought and action.

This is not to diminish the accomplishments of the author in training his mind to recall facts better than others. In the near future, recalling and collating facts may be more efficiently managed by an A.I. microchip that complements human thought and action.

Having eidetic memory or technological total recall does not make humans more intelligent or necessarily more informed about the world. Recall of facts is only a means to an end that may as easily destroy as improve society.

BE CURIOUS

Audio-book Review
 By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog: awalkingdelight)
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Data Detective

By: Tim Harford

Narrated by: Tim Harford

Tim Harford (British Author, Master’s degree in economics, journalist.)

Tim Harford gives listeners a practical application of “Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow” in the art of statistical analysis. Sounds boring, just as the title “The Data Detective” but in this day of media overload Harford castes a warning. Be skeptical of conclusions drawn by statistical data, whether accumulated by business interests, science nerds, or algorithms. Think slow because thinking fast obscures understanding of statistical analysis. Above all, be curious when reading a statistical analysis that either adds or subtracts from your understanding. With that admonition, Harford offers ten ways to question the veracity and truthfulness of statistical analysis.

Tim Harford gives listeners a practical application of “Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow” in the art of statistical analysis.

Harford argues it is important to investigate a writer’s qualifications as an analyst, and the “how, why, and when” data is collected. As the famous economist Milton Friedman said, “Statistics do not speak for themselves.” Or, as Mark Twain made famous, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It appears Harford agrees with Friedman, but not Twain, because he believes understanding a statistical study can reveal possible or at least probable truth.

Dr. Cuyler Hammond and Dr. Daniel Horn were smokers up until they finished their statistical report that correlated smoking with cancer.

Harford gives an example of statistical reports that correctly correlated smoking with lung cancer. Cuyler Hammond’s and Daniel Horn’s 1952 statistical study led to the 1964 Surgeon General report that confirmed cancer’s correlation with smoking. The disheartening story Harford tells is the tobacco industry’s purposeful effort to deny correlation. The tobacco industry’s methods were to suggest other causes, like auto exhaust or other carcinogens, as likely causes of lung cancer. They created doubt, whether true or false, which poisons belief in statistical studies.

Like the cowboy Marlboro smoker demonstrating a healthy image of a smoker, advertising obscures facts. The smoking industry successfully created doubt.

Harford explains personal investigation based on curiosity and detective work is necessary if one is looking for a probability of truth.

American free enterprise is created to produce product, service and jobs while making enough profit to stay in business. Sometimes those goals interfere with truth.

As human nature would have it, some businesses care less about truth than profit. This is not meant as a criticism but as an affirmation of human nature.

Harford explains there are many statistical studies purporting rises in crime, inequality, poverty, and medical health that need to be closely examined for validity. He argues every conclusion drawn from statistical surveys that contradict interest-group’ or individual’ belief should be closely examined. The methodology of a good statistical study must be understood within its era, its compiler’s biases, its stipulated human cohort, its conclusion, and its tested repeatability by others.

Harford challenges the supposition that violence has increased in America. This is undoubtedly music to the ears of elected officials who resist national gun control measures. Harford and the famed psychologist, Steven Pinker, suggest statistical analysis shows violence of earlier history is greater than in the 21st century. Harford acknowledges this is no comfort to the heart-rending reality of a child lost to suicide by gun or the horrendous school shootings of the last 3 years. As Horford explains statistics do not register human grief. Statistics are an impersonal unfeeling view of human life.

Harford does not read statistical surveys as truth but as a roadmap for discovery. He looks at a statistical survey like a detective searching for details. Who are the gatherers of the statistics? How were they collected? Why are they relevant? What period do statistics represent and do they relate the present to the past? Without answers, Harford argues statistical surveys are no better than propaganda.

Harford offers a graphic example of the context needed to clearly illustrate the value of statistical studies. The history of America’s invasion of Iraq and its human cost is dramatically and comprehensively revealed in one statistical picture.

Harford’s story shows how graphics can capsulize a statistical truth that shocks one’s senses. Simon Scarr summarizes a statistical report on deaths from the Iraq war with one graph.

Harford advances his view of the metaverse and its growing role in the world. He gives examples of Target’ and Costco’ algorithms that tells a father his daughter is pregnant, and infers a wife’s husband is cheating. A Target algorithm sends a note to a father about the pending birth of a baby based on his daughter’s purchases at the store. Costco sends a rebuy message for condoms to a wife when she calls and explains they never use condoms. Both stores apologize for sending their notes and say their stores made auto-response mistakes. Harford notes email apologies are a common response of stores that use similar algorithms.

Harford notes the irony of a metaverse that invades privacy with algorithms that can easily mislead or affirm societal trends or personal transgressions.

The last chapters of Harford’s book reinforce the importance of statistical studies by recounting the history of Florence Nightingale’s heroic hospital service in Turkey during the Crimean war (1853-1856). Harford explains Nightingale’s interest in mathematics and association with luminaries like Charles Babbage (an English polymath that originated the concept of a digital programmable computer). Nightingale’s hospital service and interest in mathematics lead her to correlate patient’ diseases with causes. The hospital to which she was assigned by the U. K. was without proper food and water. The hospital was dirty, and disease ridden. She had two objectives. First to have food and water supplied, and second to clean the hospital. Her statistical analysis made her realize cleaning was as important as food and clean water in reducing contagion among her patients. Like the statistical analysis of smoking and cancer changed smokers, Nightingale changed nursing.

Florenvce Nightingale (1820-1910, English social reformer born in Italy, Founder of modern nursing.)

“The Data Detective” is a disturbing book that shows the power of media and how it can mislead as well as inform the public.

This is a disturbing book that shows the power of media and how it can mislead as well as inform the public. With poorly or intentionally misleading statistical studies, opposing interest groups harden their political beliefs.

Harford concludes with an appeal to discordant interest groups to be curious about why they disagree with each other.  Reputable statistical analysis can improve one’s belief in probable truth and decrease echo chamber‘ adherence of disparate interest groups.

A FARMER’S LIFE

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog: awalkingdelight)
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Dirt to Soil (One Family’s Journey into Regenerative Agricultural

By: Gabe Brown

Narrated by: Gabe Brown

Gabe Brown (Author, farmer.)

“Dirt to Soil” offers a glimpse of a farmer’s life. Gabe Brown’s family manages a 5000-acre farm in North Dakota. Brown and his son’s farming experience offer insight to a branch of biology that addresses the relationship of a farm environment’s organisms. Brown is not a scientist or academic. He is a farmer.

Gabe Brown became an expert in soil conservation based on experience and insatiable curiosity. Though he went to college, it is four years of hardship that gave Brown an understanding of farming. From that experience, Brown reordered his practice of farming based on five principles.

  1. No soil disturbance (no-till, no-synthetics).
  2. Reinforce Soil’s Natural Defenses (the outer layer of soil protects all life)
  3. Promote biodiversity (marry species nature’s way to keep soil healthy)
  4. Keep living roots in the ground as long as possible and use cover crops with seasonal diversity.
  5. Animal & Insect integration (both predator and protector) to promote natural diversity.

Brown’s journey to understand and practice these farming principles increased the profitability and durability of farmland. “Dirt to Soil” is a record of Gabe Brown’s personal farming and educational journey. Though Brown admits to being a city boy, his experience in 4H, some academic classes, and visits to his future wife’s farm sparked a lifelong interest in farming. When his wife’s parents retired from their 1700-acre farm, Gabe Brown and his wife took over management.

Gabe Brown’s farming education came from 4 years of weather-related catastrophes that nearly ended his career as a farmer. He notes his wife appeared ready to give up farming life, but he refused to give up. His experience in those years re-focused his attention on the intimate relationship between nature and farming.

Brown explains, in “non-wilding” words, how it is necessary to rewild his farm. By watching how nature preserves itself, he changes his farming practices. Without plowing, furrowing, and fertilizing with chemicals designed by farming industry, Brown rejects practices that artificially enhance dry soil that exposes it to natural diseases and the exigencies of weather. He turns to observing nature to find how it replenishes soil’s natural nutritional condition. His objective is to turn “Dirt to Soil”.

Brown reasons that raising cattle on the farm would fertilize its soil. (A caveat to Brown’s observation is that fertilization by cow manure requires frequent grazing rotation, not industrial manure concentration.)  

(There is a concern about carbon dioxide increase and ground water contamination from livestock. In a 2019 overnight stay with a farm family in New Zealand, there was objection to the former Prime Minister’s attempt to burden farmers with the cost of better livestock control.)

With natural fertilizer and cultivation of different plant species, Brown finds soil nutrient value improves. That soil improvement is absorbed by newly planted crops that benefit both livestock and consumers. The planting is done without tilling the ground but planting seedlings in unplowed ground. After experimentation, Brown begins rotating crops based on soil enrichment objectives.

Brown experiments with different species of plants to find which types replenish the soil in his area of North Dakota. With these discoveries and changes in practice, Brown’s farm prospers.

Brown notes change in farming practices is a slow process because of a false belief that high productivity is more important than nutritive value. When a film crew interviews Brown, one of the film’s producers is asked to buy a dozen eggs at the market and bring them to the farm to show the difference between eggs from “free range” chickens vs. caged chickens.

This is a comparison of a cracked egg from a free-range farm and an egg from a caged chicken farm. Brown notes his rewilded farm shows a brighter yellow yoke.

“Dirt to Soil” goes on to become a teaching facility for future farmers. Brown’s son works on the farm and will inherit it when his mother and father pass. In the meantime, an internship program is started to pass on the educational experience of Gabe Brown’s farming life. Rewilding farms means paying attention to the diversity and value of nature. Brown explains the nutritive value of food has fallen in America because artificial fertilizers have replaced the natural processes of nature.

Brown’s story about eggs reminds one of a trip to a Norwegian fish farm last year. One of our fellow travelers asked the employee of the farm if there is any difference between fish-farm’ salmon and a wild salmon. His answer is there are very few wild salmon left in the sea. However, he notes wild salmon have more Omega-3 per serving than farmed salmon which have less protein.

Gabe Brown explains his goal has always been to make a good living at farming and pass that skill on to his family and every American interested in that life. He concludes the success of farmers should not be based on crop yield but on profitability. His experience shows there are many ways to make a profit in farming.

Brown explains that high crop yield is not a measure of success. With the creation of alternative income practices, he believes a small farm is as capable of making a profit as a large farm. Observing nature and farm diversity (both human and ecological) is Brown’s guide for farming success and profitability.

Rewilding farming appears to be as important as rewilding the planet.

COLLEGE OR NOT

Audio-book Review
           By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog: awalkingdelight)
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Excellent Sheep (The Miseducation of the American Elite and the Way to a Meaningful Life)

By: William Deresiewicz

Narrated by: Mel Foster

William Deresiewicz (American author, essayist and literary critic.)

William Deresiewicz offers a view of life and education in “Excellent Sheep”. The author begins by arguing students of the Ivy League are disadvantaged in their acceptance by the best universities in the world. One presumes Deresiewicz comes from a wealthy family because he is a student, and later, professor at Yale.

One thinks about eight of the nine Supreme Court Justices being graduates of Harvard. It is difficult to feel sorry for an American who has guaranteed life employment in one of the most prestigious jobs in the world.

When listening to any audiobook, one thinks of titles of a review for what one hears. In the first few chapters of “Excellent Sheep”, Deresiewicz’s book might be titled “Mostly Baloney”. However, “Mostly Baloney” is disrespectful, and somewhat unfair, as becomes clear in later chapters.

Lack motivation or ability to sustain effective action. Rigid. Unyielding, unable to accept new ideas, etc… Intemperate. Lack self-control and enabled by followers. Callous. In uncaring or unkind, ignores needs of followers. Corrupt. Lie, cheat, and steal; put self-interest ahead of public interest. Insular. Draws clear boundaries between welfare of organization and outsiders. Evil. Use power to inflict severe physical or psychological harm. Incompetent. Lack motivation or ability to sustain effective action. Rigid. Unyielding, unable to accept new ideas, etc.. Intemperate. Lack self-control and enabled by followers. Callous. In uncaring or unkind, ignores needs of followers. Corrupt. Lie, cheat, and steal; put self-interest ahead of public interest. Insular. Draws clear boundaries between welfare of organization and outsiders. Evil. Use power to inflict severe physical or psychological harm.

Toward the end of his book, one finds Deresiewicz is raised in an upper middle-class family but with no college graduates. A listener begins to realize Deresiewicz’s acceptance at Yale comes from hard work, and good grades, even if his family could afford the Ivy League. The author’s presumed hard work and good grades demands respect and fairer evaluation of what he has to say.

Many (if not most) Americans go to college because it is a ticket to better paying jobs, not to become better educated citizens.

To a large extent, this critic went to college to get a ticket for better pay—of course, not to the ivy league but to a State University and graduate education at a midwestern university. The point being most American’s purpose in higher education is to get a ticket for higher paying jobs, and only secondarily, to become better educated. The “ticket mentality” is part of what Deresiewicz is trying to explain.

Deresiewicz explains Ivy League students are pushed throughout their lives to strive for admittance, not to become better educated but to have the best job opportunities in America.

The author suggests that push makes them unsure of themselves because they are constantly measured at every point of their life by the artificiality of SATs, class grades, student activity, and the wealth and influence of their families. What Deresiewicz misses is that despite these student pressures, those who go to any school beyond high school have more tools to help them cope with life. College, contrary to Deresiewicz’s opinion, is not a transition from childhood to adulthood. College is only a continuation of childhood.

Deresiewicz is prescient when he explains how important it is for students to follow their passion.

However, not all people are motivated by passion. Most follow paths of least resistance. The path of least resistance is influenced by education, but not formed by it. To infer that is a bad thing is unreasonable because most of society follows rather than leads. The followers are not motivated by passion. It is leaders who have passion. That, of course, is a two-edged value because leaders can lead to the worst, as well as the best outcomes in life.

An added criticism by Deresiewicz is that upper income families push their children to achieve good grades for admittance to the Ivy League and are damaged by the experience. That seems false.

Basic liberal arts and sciences for adolescents (before college) are exposure that may or may not become passions for the geniuses of life. Parents should encourage, if not push, their children to get good grades in school. That is where passion is born.

No one would deny Sir Isaac Newtons, Einsteins, and Diracs are needed as much as the George Eliots, Dostoyevskys, and Tolstoys of life. Without knowing if they were pushed by their parents is not the point. It is the passion each had for a discipline they were exposed to early in life. Undoubtedly that exposure is either encouraged tacitly or directly by parents or guardians.

What Deresiewicz attacks in his last chapters is the nobles oblige of Ivy League graduates who dominate America’s leadership class. That domination reinforces class distinction and exacerbates the gap between rich and poor.

The author notes many Presidents of the U.S., before the mid-twentieth century did not go to Ivy League universities. With few exceptions, a majority of American Presidents after the 1970s are Ivy League graduates. Deresiewicz suggest the Ivy League aggravates class distinctions in the U.S.

More importantly, Deresiewicz argues Ivy League education narrows the thinking of American leadership because graduates fall into a camaraderie trap and fail to understand the needs of most Americans.

Deresiewicz suggests higher education fails to teach the value of liberal arts. Whether true or not, emphasis on liberal arts seems superfluous. Most who listen to the author’s book cannot feel sorry for Ivy League students that are fearful of what life has in store for them. Every student transitioning to adulthood has that fear. Teaching liberal arts is not going to change that fearfulness. Of course, that is not Deresiewicz’s point, but America’s attention needs to be focused on improving liberal arts and science education for all, not just Ivy League students.