Category: POLITICS

AI REGULATION

As Suleyman and Bhaskar infer, ignoring the threat of AI because of the difficulty of regulation is no reason to abandon the effort.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Coming Wave

By: Mustafa Suleyman with Michael Bhaskar

Narrated By: Mustafa Suleyman

Mustafa Suleyman (British entrepreneur, CEO Microsoft AI)
Michael Bhaskar (New York Times writer & publisher, works at Microsoft AI.)

This is a startling book about AI because it is written by an AI entrepreneur who is the founder and former head of applied AI at DeepMind. He is also the CEO of Microsoft AI. What the authors argue is not understood by many who discount the threat of AI. They explain AI can collate information that creates societal solutions, as well as threats, that are beyond the thought and reasoning ability of human beings.

“The Coming Wave” is startling because it is written by two authors who have an intimate understanding of the science of AI.

They argue it is critically important for AI research and development to be internationally regulated with the same seriousness that accompanied the research and use of the atom bomb.

If AI has the monumental risk Suleyman and Bhaskar describe, it remains the responsibility of humanity to manage it wisely.

Those who have read this blog know the perspective of this writer is that AI, whether it has greater risk than the atom bomb or not is a tool, not a controller, of humanity. The AI’ threat example given by Suleyman and Bhaskar is that AI has the potential for invention of a genetic modification that could as easily destroy as improve humanity. Recognizing AI’s danger is commendable but like the atom bomb, there will always be a threat of miscreant nations or radicals that have the use of a nuclear device or AI to initiate Armagedón. Obviously, if AI is the threat they suggest, there needs to be an antidote. The last chapters of “The Coming Wave” offer their solution. The authors suggest a 10-step program to regulate or ameliorate the threat of AI’s misuse.

Like alcoholism and nuclear bomb deterrence, Suleyman’s program will be as effective as those who choose to follow the rules.

There are no simple solutions for regulation of AI and as history shows neither Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) nor the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has been completely successful.

Suleyman suggests the first step in regulating AI begins with creating safeguards for the vast LLM capabilities of Artificial Intelligence.

This will require the hiring of technicians to monitor and adjust incorrect or misleading information accumulated and distributed by AI users. The concern of many will be the restriction on “freedom of speech”. Additionally, two concerns are the cost of such a bureaucracy and who monitors the monitors. Who draws the line between fact and fiction? When does information deletion become a distortion of fact? This bureaucracy will be responsible for auditing AI models to understand what their capabilities are and what limitations they have.

A second step is to slow the process of AI development by controlling the sale and distribution of the hardware components of AI to provide more time for reviewing new development impacts.

With lucrative incentives for new AI capabilities in a capitalist system there is likely to be a lot of resistance by aggressive entrepreneurs, free-trade and free-speech believers. Leaders in authoritarian countries will be equally incensed by interference in their right to rule.

Transparency is a critical part of the vetting process for AI development.

Suleyman suggests critics need to be involved in new developments to balance greed and power against utilitarian value. There has to be an ethical examination of AI that goes beyond profitability for individuals or control by governments. The bureaucracies for development, review, and regulation should be designed to adapt, reform, and implement regulations to manage AI technologies responsibly. These regulations should be established through global treaties and alliances among all nations of the world.

Suleyman acknowledges this is a big ask and notes there will be many failures in getting cooperation or adherence to AI regulation.

That is and was true of nuclear armament and so far, there has been no use of nuclear weapons to attack other countries. The authors note there will be failures in trying to institute these guidelines but with the help of public awareness and grassroots support, there is hope for the greater good that can come from AI.

As Suleyman and Bhaskar infer, ignoring the threat of AI because of the difficulty of regulation is no reason to abandon the effort.

WORKER ABANDONMENT

Trump is unlikely to help the middleclass and poor any more than some of America’s past Presidents, but he disrupts the status quo. That is Thomas Frank’s answer to why Trump was re-elected.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Listen Liberal (Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People?)

By: Thomas Frank

Narrated By: Thomas Frank

Thomas Carr Frank (Author, political analyst, historian, and journalist)

How could the American people elect a billionaire felon as President of the United States? Thomas Frank offers a compelling answer to that troubling question.

Since WWII, the American people have been misled by the words, policies, and deeds of both Democratic and Republican leaders. No post WWII leader escapes Frank’s frank explanation. Not since Franklin Roosevelt, and Harry Truman have any Presidents effectively reduced income inequality.

Frank embarrasses American voters for complicity in reducing the size of the middle class, ignoring the poor, and making the rich richer. He explains how Presidents of the last 70 years have made the middleclass smaller and the poor poorer. Frank particularly points to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as examples of Ivy League’ wordsmiths that misled the public and instituted policies that moved America away from the working class and poor.

Clinton and Obama represented education as the primary measure of success in the 21st century. They largely ignored the working class that grew the American economy to be the most successful in the world. With that neglect the Democratic party became adjunct to the Republican party by diminishing the contribution and value of working Americans. Whichever party leads America no longer makes a difference to the middleclass’ and poor. Frank argues there is little difference between a Democratic or Republican President. The middleclass and poor realize those who are elected to lead make little difference in American worker’s lives.

Frank methodically dismantles Clinton and Obama administration’s policies to show how they diminished opportunity for the middleclass and poor. Clinton manages to balance the national governments debt on the backs of working America. Clinton’s welfare reform took many off of welfare by demanding employment as a requirement for any help by the welfare administration. That seems laudable but its impact on single parent households left children home alone and at the mercy of their neighborhoods. A child alone is left to the influence of neighborhoods festooned with gangs, drugs, guns and their societal consequences. In reducing the number of people on welfare, poverty increased.

Clinton’s programs for crime control massively increased prison building and prison populations that disproportionately affected African and Latino American communities.

Clinton repeals the Glass-Stegall Act and allows commercial banks to enter the derivative mortgage business that led to the near future financial collapse of America between 2007 and 2010.

Entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) led to manufacturing job losses in America.

Frank admits Obama helped the middleclass and poor with Obama Care but argues he made the same mistakes as Clinton by supporting the rich at the expense of the middleclass and poor. Obama chose to follow the lead of George Bush’s plan to get America out of the economic ditch of the century by bailing out the financial industry while allowing the working class to fend for themselves. Many lost their homes as a result of banker’s lending greed and mortgage derivatives that came from Clinton’s decision to repeal Glass-Stegall. None of the banks were punished by bankruptcy because the federal government made a deal to keep them in business or subject to acquisition by bigger banks that became even larger. Poverty remained at the same level. Surprisingly homelessness was reduced by Obama’s “Opening Doors” initiative in 2010. However, the trend of aiding the rich at the expense of the working class is re-invigorated by emphasis on higher education and creativity rather than the nuts and bolts of economic prosperity that comes from job creation and a working public.

The trend of aiding the rich at the expense of the working class is re-invigorated by emphasis on higher education and creativity rather than the nuts and bolts of economic prosperity that comes from job creation.

The glaring irony of Frank’s observation led to the election of a billionaire who lauds wealth and power and cares little about the middleclass and poor. Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton distorted the truth, partly by lying to themselves but also by purposely lying to the public with political policies and actions that did not make the lives of the middleclass and poor any better.

Trump directly distorts the truth but Obama and Clinton lie to themselves about the value of education as the singular path to improvement for the middleclass and poor. People are not only educated by school.

People are also educated by work and their experiences in life. Not every person in America or the world is interested in having a college degree. Shared economic productivity is the key to reducing income disparity. The brilliant oratorical skills of Obama and Clinton were refined by their intelligence and education but not everyone is blessed with the same skill. Trump is no Obama or Clinton, but he appeals to many who feel they have been left behind or can be benefited by his transactional view of the world.

One may agree that economic productivity comes from creativity, education, and work. However, it does not come from emphasis on one thing but on equality of opportunity for all to be employed.

Franks’ cynicism is overwhelming. By the end of his book, which is published before Hilliary Clinton’s political defeat by Trump, one is depressed by the truth of what he writes. The second election of Trump is proof of the failure of the Democratic party, and the Republican party, to live up to a belief in social equality and equal opportunity.

Creativity is an innate human quality. Education comes in many forms which are both formal and informal.

Being employed is a government, private enterprise, and personal responsibility. It is the job of governance to create public policies that support equality of opportunity for people to be creative, educated, and employed. Equality of opportunity ensures national economic growth and prosperity.

Trump is unlikely to help the middleclass and poor any more than some of America’s past Presidents, but he disrupts the status quo. That is Thomas Frank’s answer to why Trump was re-elected.

FOR BETTER OR WORSE?

Trump’s purposefully uninformed knowledge of history will become a greater source of conflict in the world because he has a second term’ understanding of how the American government works and how it can be subverted with loyal followers.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Underground Empire (How America Weaponized the World Economy)

By: Henry Farrell, Abraham Newman

Narrated By: L. J. Ganser

Henry Farrell (Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, editor at the Washington Post.)
Abraham L. Newman (Professor, School of Foreign Service and Government Dept. at Georgetown University.)

“Underground Empire” is not a surprising revelation in today’s media-savvy era. Every person in the world is being surveilled by someone because of the power and influence of government. Whether a democracy that believes in freedom or an autocracy that believes in absolute control, Farrell and Newman explain how “Big Brother” is watching and acting in ways that affect your life.

Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman explain how surveillance dramatically changed in America after 9/11/2001.

The potential for ubiquitous surveillance was known and wished for by some government bureaucrats. Wide social surveillance was resisted by many in the American government until 9/11. After 9/11 that resistance weakened and surveillance of the world, more fully including American citizens, became indispensable. The creation of an “Underground Empire” has weaponized privacy and the fuel of money that can heat, cool, burn or freeze national economies.

The authors argue there is an invisible war being waged by this “Underground Empire”.

The empire’s objective is to be in charge of the future. One may take issue with the word “…Empire”. The scale of an “Underground Empire” varies from nations like America, China, the UK, the EU, Russia, and others to a group of Al Qaeda’ terrorists, or a disparate group of Syrian freedom fighters. The common denominator is technological connection, i.e. the basis of “Underground…” organization for coordinated action that changes the world.

Ferrell and Newman’s primary focus becomes the use of surveillance to influence world policy.

Particularly, the surveillance of money, the source of power and prestige, is shown by the authors to be key to understanding what other countries and interests are planning and doing that affects society. They speculate that 9/11 could have been exposed before it happened with more surveillance of the money that was being accumulated by Al Qaeda and used by the terrorists who attacked the world trade center in New York. That might be true but there is a wider consequence of that level of surveillance. Surveillance has become a weapon in the hands of political leaders. Surveillance of the flow of money, the source of power and prestige, may make “America Great” as inferred by the pending second term President. The EU, NATO, and other international organizations are looked at differently by Trump than by former post-world war’ Presidents. Trump views the EU and NATO as users of American wealth without equivalent contribution to world defense.

Trump is clearly described as a transactional President with a view of America’s superior economic strength that can make it the bully of the world.

On the one hand, Trump objects to NATO because of its disproportionate financial burden to the United States which pleases Putin and changes the perspective of America’s role in the world. On the other hand, the authors note Trump opposed Putin when it came to the Nord Stream 2 oil pipeline to the E.U. The difference has to do with the Trump’s transactional view of the world. Because of America’s vast gas supplies from fracking, Trump sided with Texas politicians who vociferously objected to the second Nord stream pipeline to Europe.

Thinking, doing, and wanting are critical precursors of action but are largely, if not always, unfulfilled without money.

The “Underground Empire” is not exclusively focused on money, but the use of money is based on knowledge of what people are thinking, doing, and wanting. Accumulating information becomes actionable with money. The inference by the authors is that the government’s decision to track money, as well as private information, informs one of what will happen in the future. The problem with this narrow reasoning is that national interests of countries do not always line up with each other. The formation of the EU with its own currency becomes a competitor for America, not just a useful tool for exchange of goods between nations.

The internet of things and the influence of minor and major “Underground Empires” have changed the world.

Today’s playing field is not limited to major powers. As the spread of technology is mastered by the public, anyone as small as an interest group or as large as an international alliance can influence and potentially change the world. Farrell and Newman offer important understanding of that invisible war. Obvious examples are 9/11, Ukraine’s invasion, and most recently, the overthrow and exile of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. But they also reveal another front for conflict between the U.S. and countries that have traditionally been allied with America.

The only hope for peace in the world may be exposure of the works of the “Underground Empire”.

Histories carriers of belief in information transparency are people like Edward Snowden, Daniel Ellsberg, Chelsea Manning, Mark Felt, and Reality Winner. Snowden, a former NSA contractor, leaked classified information about global surveillance, Ellsberg exposed the lies of Vietnam, Manning exposed the WikiLeaks, Felt exposed the Watergate scandal, and Winner exposed presidential election interference in 2016. Secrets frequently kill the truth.

As a transactional President, Trump will roil the world more in his second term of office than his first.

Ferrell’s and Newman’s book will make many even more concerned about the Trump presidency. Trump’s purposefully uninformed knowledge of history will become a greater source of conflict in the world because he has a second term’ understanding of how the American government works and how it can be subverted with loyal followers.

To make the point clearer, Trump views the world transactionally. The measure of value is most easily understood as wealth and the influence of money. Appointing wealthy sycophants to the government ensure victimization of the poor.

BEST & WORST OF US

Trump’s mass deportation idea is draconian and inhumane. A system of deportation should be organized to repatriate some undocumented immigrants but not to expel them without fair consideration of their circumstances and the needs of the American economy.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Real Americans

By: Rachel Khong

Narrated By: Louisa Zhu, Eric Yang, Eunice Wong

Rachel Khong (Author, American editor in San Francisco. Born in Malaysia to a Malaysian Chinese family.)

In a 1931 book, “Epic of America”, James Adams described America as a land where life should be better and richer for everyone, with opportunities for each according to their ability or achievement. This was written in the depths of the depression that began with the stock market crash of 1929. Of course, illegal immigration was nearly impossible in the 1930s, but still–there were 500,000 American immigrant arrivals in the U.S. during that decade. That amounted to 11.6 percent of the U.S. population at that time. Rachel Khong’s vision in “Real Americans” tests the next four years of Trump’s administration.

Khong writes a fictional story of a romantic relationship between an undocumented young Puerto Rican woman who is about to be deported and an equally young South Korean American who is falling in love with her.

Both are well educated by the American education system. The boy is interviewing for entrance to Yale while the girl is meeting an immigration lawyer to see what can be done to avoid deportation. The girl lives with a feckless “Wanna-Be actor” father and driven mother who is struggling to make a living in America. The daughter is shown to be quite intelligent with the ambition to become a data analyst.

Mass deportation without fair consideration of immigrant circumstance and their societal contribution is inhumane and foolish.

The developing affection between these two characters is beautifully created by the author. They are an example of why resident status needs to be treated fairly when immigrants are found to violate the immigration laws of the United States.

The idea that immigrants take jobs away from native American workers is a false flag.

The agricultural industry will be seriously impacted by mass deportation of undocumented labor.

The need for workers in America will continue to grow in the foreseeable future of the largest economy in the world. The demographics of an aging American population (that is not replacing itself) requires immigrants to grow and maintain the economy. The two characters of Khong’s story may not be every immigrant but they show how some are the future of American prosperity. Mass deportation of illegal immigrants will harm the American economy.

Immigrants have played a critical role in what America has become.

Khong is just telling a fictional story about American immigration, but it clearly illustrates how political rhetoric devolved into political lies and misinformation about the value of all human beings. America does have a history of Indian and Black murder and enslavement, but it also has a history that ameliorates discrimination and past misdeeds. One hopes the blunt force of immigrant deportation is not a policy that repeats America’s societal mistakes. American needs a carefully adjudicated immigration policy for the betterment of society.

Today, the total percentage, including 11,000,000 undocumented immigrants, is estimated at 14.3%. In the 1930s, 11.6% of the American population was immigrant. The question is whether the undocumented should be deported, regardless of the contribution they make to American productivity.

An aging population in America is not being replaced by native born Americans. Worker loss of undocumented immigrants may be harmful to American productivity.

Trump and his deportation Czar, Tom Homan.

Trump’s mass deportation idea is draconian and inhumane. A system of deportation should be organized to repatriate some undocumented immigrants but not to expel them without fair consideration of their circumstances and the needs of the American economy.

Khong’s story is entertaining fiction, but Trump’s deportation plan is a threatening work in progress.

POLITICAL CHAOS

Tariffs to restrict foreign production is shooting citizens in the foot by artificially increasing the cost of living.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Edge of Chaos: Why Democracy Is Failing to Deliver Economic Growth – and How to Fix It

By: Dambisa Moyo

Narrated By: Pamala Tyson

Dambisa Moyo (Zambian-born economist and author with a BS and MBA from Harvard, former World Bank consultant to Europe, Central Asia and Africa.)

“Edge of Chaos” is a revelatory and intelligent analysis of economic rewards and risks of democracies and dictatorships. Fundamentally, Moyo argues failures of government economies are related to societal instability and short-term government economic policies that are disproportionately influenced by monied interests and kleptocratic political leaders. Rich corporations and kleptocratic leaders distort economic opportunity, create chaos while producing and exacerbating economic inequality. She argues America is at the edge of chaos because of a flawed democratic election system that is biased toward short-term rather than long term economic policy.

Moyo identifies the Gini index of income inequality to show that there is little difference between the rich and poor in China and the United States despite their government leaders’ differences.

China is a dictatorship while America is a form of democracy. They are nearly the same on the Gini index scale of citizen inequality while South Africa, Zambia and Brazil are at the bottom. Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and most of the Scandinavian countries show the lowest differences in citizen’ economic inequality. Mayo argues the difference has little to do with their forms of government except in relation to their government policies. In her opinion, China and the United States could improve their citizen’s Gini index position if their government policies would focus on income equality.

Both China and America have relative stability but with different forms of government.

Unquestionably, freedom is the sine non quo (indispensable ingredient) of America, but it is income inequality that causes the chaos Moyo alludes to in her book. That chaos is not overtly apparent in China because of dictatorship but one who has traveled to China feels there is a similar level of discontent, if not chaos, among its citizens over economic inequality.

Moyo’s solution for reducing America’s growing chaos seems difficult but not impossible to implement.

Dambisa Moyo’s solution revolves around the following 8 recommendations.

  1. Make voting compulsory to increase voter participation more representative of the people.
  2. Make election to the House of Representatives a six-year term like the Senate to encourage longer term economic goals but limit the number of terms one can be in office. (Eliminate career politicians.)
  3. Increase the pay of politicians to what successful private sector leaders receive.
  4. Establish policy making agencies that can focus on long-term policies without being threatened by near term election cycles.
  5. Invest in the education of future leaders of the political system.
  6. Encourage public officials to focus on economic diversification with an educated understanding of technological change in the world.
  7. The wealth of the nation should be focused on reduction of economic inequality.
  8. Strategies to manage natural resources should be developed to focus on sustainability.

Fair trade is where America is on the wrong side of history according to the author.

Adam Smith believed in fair trade.

Adam Smith argued for removing trade barriers like tariffs and quotas because of limited natural resources. He explains resources are more efficiently allocated, product production is increased, and economic growth is improved with free trade. As inferred by Moyo, American chaos is partly a result of ignoring Adam Smith’s prescient understanding of economics.

America democracy has journeyed a long way since 1776.

America’s fundamental success came from its emphasis on freedom within rules-of-law organized around the “checks and balances” of three distinct branches of government, i.e., the executive, congressional, and judicial branches. This is the strength of American Democracy that has offered stability. The inference made in “Edge of Chaos” is that America’s stability is at risk if it does not adapt to technological change wrought by A.I. and global interconnectivity.

Service is a growth industry in America.

Technology is changing the nature of American productivity from material products to service. With the help of A.I., America can begin to address many of the service needs of its citizens. From aid to the homeless, to education for service to others, to drug treatment of the addicted, to improved health care for all, the prosperity and income of Americans can be more equitably shared.

Global interconnectivity requires greater acceptance of fair trade as originally described by Adam Smith.

Today’s alleged protection of worker employment by using tariffs to restrict foreign production is shooting citizens in the foot by artificially increasing the cost of living. Re-education for service to the public by using A.I. to make citizens more human-centered offers an alternative to 21st century American chaos.

These are intelligent observations by a very young and well-educated author.

HOSTAGE

Over 230 human beings remain political hostages in this unpredictable world.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

In the Shadows (True Stories of High-Stakes Negotiations to Free Americans Captured Abroad)

By: Mickey Bergman, Ellis Henican

Narrated By: Assaf Cohen, Mickey Bergman

Mickey Bergman (American Israeli.)
Ellis Henican (American co-author, political analyst for Fox News Channel.)

Mickey Bergman tells a fascinating personal story about his life as a political hostage negotiator. He and a mysterious Lebanese friend he names “George” met at Georgetown University and became interested in political hostage negotiations. A precipitating event that led to their early friendship is the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier by a Palestinian Hamas faction in Lebanon. As a former Jewish military soldier, Bergman became friends with “George”, a Lebanese Muslim student at George Washington University. With similar beliefs about the unfairness and human tragedy of hostage taking for political purpose, they become partners in the release of the Israeli soldier from Hamas.

As a reminder of the of the October 7, 2023, kidnaping of over 100 Jewish hostages by Hamas, Israel has occupied Gaza and murdered an estimated 4o,000 Palestinians.

In the kidnaping of one Israeli soldier, Bergman explains that murder or kidnapping of 1 Israeli is viewed by some in the government and Israeli citizens as not 1–but six million and 1 atrocities.

A singular kidnaping, let alone the October 7th Hamas attack, gave warrant to some in Israel’s government to wage occupation and war on Gaza.

(This reasoning gives a sense of the current state of the Gaza war but also explains why hostage negotiation is such a complicated and lengthy process that can as easily end in failure as success.)

From Bergman’s friendship with “George”, he gathers interest in the pursuit of peace, regardless of social, religious, economic, or political difference. As a twenty something graduate, Bergman receives a call from the Clinton Global Initiative to join their organization after graduation. CGI was formed by former President Clinton and his family in 2005. Its stated purpose was to devise and implement solutions to world challenges like climate change, health equity, world economic growth, and peace among nations. It gave Bergman his first thoughts about what would become his mission in life, i.e., the liberation of hostages unjustly held by factions of countries or governments for political rather than criminal infraction. “In the Shadows” explains how suited Bergman is for the life he chooses. Raised in Israel, highly educated, experienced as a soldier, from a stable and loving family, Bergman understands the grief and joy of families dealing with and hoping for their mothers, fathers, sons or daughters release from a foreign prison.

Formed in 2005 to address world problems.

Bergman’s early experience as a go-between for the release of the Israeli soldier, with the help of his Lebanese friend from college, show how important non-governmental citizens can be in freeing political prisoners. Bergman and his friend’s families have important indirect contacts at high levels in the Israeli and Lebanese governments. The two young graduates create back-channel contacts to Jewish and Lebanese governments that eventually get Hamas to release the Israeli soldier. They found it a slow, tedious process of give and take allowing political points to be made by factions and governments while providing an opportunity to free a hostage who was only doing his government ordered job.

Bergman is everyman who wishes to be the best he can be within their natural gifts of birth, education, and experience.

Bergman is drawn into the circle of Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico who formed the Richard Center in 2011. Bergman learns how to become a more effective hostage negotiator. Richardson’s methodology in negotiation is a post-graduate course in effective international negotiation.

The Richard Center was formed in 2011 to focus on promoting international peace and dialogue; particularly to negotiate hostage and prisoner releases. The Richard Center continues its work today.

Bill Richardson (1947-2023, died at age 75, a former Governor of New Mexico, 9th US Secretary of Energy, US Ambassador to the UN, who was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives for New Mexico.)

Richardson’s rules of negotiation:

  1. Never close the door to your contacts.
  2. Deflect attention from yourself with the people you take with you when you negotiate.
  3. As leader of a mission, observe reactions of your opposing audience to associates’ arguments, i.e. the same arguments you discussed with your associates before the meeting.
  4. Present a final pitch for hostage release based on what you have learned from the audiences’ reactions to your support staff’s arguments.

Richardson is shown by Bergman to be a master of negotiation and a great teacher of the art. You will not always win the argument, but you will have used the most persuasive details based on seeing and hearing the oppositions’ reactions to associates’ arguments.

Brittany Griner (released in Russia 2022)
Danny Fenster (released in Myanmar 2021)
Otto Warmbier (released 2o17 in N. Korea, died 2017)
Trevor Reed (Released in Russia 2022)
Paul Whelan (Released in Russia 2024)
Kenneth Bae (Released in N. Korea 2014)

“In the Shadows” tells the hostage stories of Brittney Griner, Danny Fenster, Otto Warmbier, Trevor Reed, Paul Whelan, and Kenneth Bae.

Bergman does a great job of explaining how difficult, dangerous, and often unsuccessful hostage negotiations can be. The release of Griner is heartwarming. The death of Warmbier is heart breaking. The delay of Paul Whelan’s release is frustrating and indicative of the complexity of hostage negotiation.

The many stories Bergman tells are interspersed with hardship in his own life that show how human and vulnerable we are despite our intelligence, experience, and education. Over 230 human beings remain political hostages in this unpredictable world. Though Governor Richardson recently died, Bergman carries on with the Richardson Center for Global Engagement.

PUTIN & UKRAINE

Without checks and balances, autocratic beliefs inevitably lead to conflict and mutually assured destruction, Donald Trump notwithstanding.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

From Cold War to Hot Peace (An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia)

By: Michael McFaul

Narrated By: L. J. Ganser

Michael McFaul (Author, American academic and diplomat, ambassador to Russia 2012-2014, former Professor of International Studies at Stanford.)

Not since George Kennan’s brief time as Ambassador to Russia in 1952 has an American ambassador been denied access to Russia. Michael McFaul became the second in 2016. McFaul joins the pre- and post-Obama election to become Obama’s ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2o14. McFaul writes this book to explain his experience in the Obama administration, his understanding of Russia, and his tenure as Ambassador to Russia.

Interestingly, Condoleezza Rice recommends McFaul should join Obama because she was sure he, rather than McCain, would become the next President of the United States.

McFaul follows Rice’s recommendation and joins Obama’s campaign. Mcfaul’s grasp of Russian foreign affairs is insightful and relevant based on his personal experience. McFaul lived in Russia for a period of time when Gorbachev and Yeltsin attempted to liberalize Russia’s autocratic government. McFaul’s time living in Russia, his understanding of Russian language, and his study of Russian history at Stanford make his opinion in “From Cold War to Hot Peace” important.

Gorbachev’ biography shows he experienced the autocratic rule of Stalin’s U.S.S.R. as a young boy and found the courage to open the door to citizen’ freedom.

Mikhail Gorbachev was 22 when Stalin died. His ideal was to maintain the U.S.S.R. but with a system of government that rejected totalitarianism while freeing its citizens to improve their way of life. However, the shock of newfound freedom appeared an economic change too difficult and unfairly remunerative for the U.S.S.R. to survive as one hegemon.

A fundamental ingredient of independence is freedom.

When countries controlled by the U.S.S.R. were offered freedom, they looked to forms of democracy rather than autocracy. Gorbachev’s inability to accelerate economic growth to improve the lives of his country’s citizens doomed his goal to create a freer society within the U.S.S.R. Compounding his failure, Boris Yeltsin usurps Gorbachev’s power by arguing he has a better way of accelerating Russia’s economy to keep the U.S.S.R. together.

Boris Yeltsin talked the talk of democratic government but because of his inability to coopt the underlying authoritarian habits of former KGB operatives, he lost control of the government.

Yeltsin’s rise undermined the influence of Gorbachev, encouraged the departure of U.S.S.R.’ member countries, and gave an opening to Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer. The KGB changed to the FSB in 1991 (along with Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service) to become the right and left hand of Putin’s power and influence in the new Russia.

Fifteen countries leave the U.S.S.R. in 1991.

  1. Estonia: August 20, 1991
  2. Latvia: August 21, 1991
  3. Lithuania: March 11, 1990
  4. Armenia: September 21, 1991
  5. Azerbaijan: October 18, 1991
  6. Belarus: August 25, 1991
  7. Georgia: April 9, 1991
  8. Kazakhstan: December 16, 1991
  9. Kyrgyzstan: August 31, 1991
  10. Moldova: August 27, 1991
  11. Russia: December 12, 1991
  12. Tajikistan: September 9, 1991
  13. Turkmenistan: October 27, 1991
  14. Ukraine: August 24, 1991
  15. Uzbekistan: September 1, 1991

Gorbachev effectively ended the cold war, but McFaul argues the cold war turned into a “…Hot Peace”. Gorbachev was the last leader of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. His effort to democratize Russia fails even though he fully champions Valdimir Putin to become president of Russia in 2000.

Putin took control of Russia as Prime Minister under Yeltsin in 1999. He later effectively became President of Russia for life.

McFall explains Obama became President of the United States in 2o09. Obama revised America’s relationship with Russia with what became known as the U.S./Russia “Reset” policy.

Obama’s “Reset” policy had some early positive effects. The relationship between America and Russia arguably improved despite their significant political differences. When they disagreed, they agreed to disagree. There were halting steps toward nuclear bomb limitation and greater cooperation on America’s actions in Afghanistan when the Taliban had shown support for Osama bin Laden after 9/11.

Putin rose to the presidency in 2011 and has remained effectively in control of Russia since 1999. Though not argued by McFaul, Putin’s intimate understanding of Russia’s secret service has given him the power to exercise dictatorial control over Russia. The history of U.S.S.R. since the 1917 revolution has been maintained by a secret service used to jail, torture, and murder any opposition to leadership of Russia. Today, that autocratic leader is Putin. There seems little reason to believe kleptocratic control of a massive secret service apparatus will be overcome without revolution. Every Russian knows of the threat the secret service has to any opposition to Putin who controls and has an intimate relationship and understanding of the organizational capabilities of the former KGB.

Gorbachev’s legacy is hope for a better form of government in Russia. Change is possible just as Gorbachev’s history as the secretary of the Communist Party from 1985 to 1991 proved.

One is inclined to believe change will come to Russia from a disaffected communist party leader who rises in the party and taps discontented Russians looking for change. If all one’s life is lived and raised in Russia, a Russian born change-agent like Gorbachev may, once again, be born

As one completes McFaul’s book, the threat of masculine blindness in world leaders is made clear. Leadership entails a power that corrupts leaders who think they know what is best for their citizens. Autocracies concentrate that power in singular human beings. Without checks and balances, autocratic beliefs inevitably lead to conflict and mutually assured destruction, Donald Trump notwithstanding.

TURN EVERY PAGE

Caro’s facts do not prove truth, but they do reveal the means and consequence of political power and influence in American Democracy.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Working”

By: Robert A. Caro

Narrated By: Robert A. Caro

Robert Allan Caro (Author, journalist, winner of 2 Pulitzer Prizes in Biography and many other coveted literature awards.)

Every non-fiction writer can appreciate this erudite and entertaining audiobook, personally written and read by Robert Caro. Caro explains what “Working” means to a non-fiction writer. Caro artfully explains why and how researching, interviewing, and writing a biography is a revelatory experience.

In “Working”, Caro focuses on his two Pulitzer Prize winning books, “The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York” and “Master of the Senate”, one of his four books about Lyndon Johnson. Both biographies are about political power in America.

Robert Moses (1888-1981) was an American urban planner and public official in the New York metropolitan area during the early to mid-20th century.

Moses (among many titles) was the New York City Parks Commissioner and Chairman of the Triborough Bridge Tunnel Authority. His political power and influence are detailed in Caro’s book, “The Power Broker”. Though Moses was never elected to political office, he arguably shaped the infrastructure of New York City as much, if not more, than any elected person in New York. “Working” explains how a reporter from a small Long Island’ newspaper manages to write “The Power Broker” and become one of America’s most famous biographers.

After graduating from Princeton with a B.S. degree, Caro is hired by the Long Island, New York’ newspaper, “Newsday”.

Caro explains he had been a writer for many years as a young boy and college student before getting a scut-work job at “Newsday”. He tells of a breakthrough report he writes that gets attention from the editor of the paper. He is given advice by the editor who recognizes the quality of his writing. The advice is that when writing a piece for the public, be sure of your facts by “turning every page”. Caro takes that advice and explains how it became a mantra, a repeated aid, in his writing.

Caro explains how he and his wife work to “turn every page” in researching the Moses and Johnson biographies.

Even though one may have read Caro’s two Pulitzer Prize winning’ books, “Working” offers a nearly perfect introduction to his biographies of Moses and Johnson that are, to the extent humanly possible, researched by “turning every page”. Caro is hard on himself for taking years to research and write his biographic books. It is a financial hardship for his family, particularly before his first success with “The Power Broker”. They sell their house in Long Island to support his book research. After that first success, the financial insecurity is offset by grants and the support of literary agents. “Turning every page” is a laborious process but it assures and reinforces the facts revealed in his biographies.

Caro explains how he and his wife meticulously researched public documents to confirm facts that corroborate the victimization of some New Yorkers by monied interests that gave Moses the political power to destroy low-income neighborhoods for new thoroughfares through the New York City area.

With the construction of over 600 miles of road many residents, renters and homeowners, were evicted from their homes. Most were left to fend for themselves.

Caro and his wife were willing to disrupt their lives and neighborhood relationships to pursue his obsession with verification of facts. Caro explains that he needed to move to Texas to understand what it was like for Lyndon Johnson to be raised in the Texas Hill Country. He could not just visit because local Texans would not talk to him with the candor he sought to understand where Lyndon Johnson came from. Many revelations are in his book about Johnson that could not have been corroborated without interviews with people who knew the Johnson family.

Caro and his wife move to Austin, Texas to be near the Texas Hill Country to research and understand the society in which Lyndon Johnson is raised.

Many insights are a result of the move. Experiencing the loneliness of the Texas Hill country because of its sparse population helped Caro understand Johnson’s need to be bigger than life. Interviewing Johnson’s brother reveals the tensions that existed between Lyndon and his father. Johnson’s father was heir to the original Johnson ranch that was lost because of the soils’ unproductivity. It had too much caliche, a clay content that would not support a cash crop. When Johnson’s father repurchased the ranch after its loss by the family, he failed to understand the land could not provide enough income to pay its mortgage. The ranch is lost to the bank again. The relationship between Lyndon and his father deteriorated as Lyndon grew older because of Lyndon’s disappointment with his father’s ineptitude and domineering personality. Ironically, Caro notes it is a personality that Lyndon is heir to and for which he is criticized. On the other hand, Caro explains it is also a personality characteristic that makes Lyndon one of the greatest masters of the Senate. No Senate leader since Johnson has as successfully led the Senate in passing government legislation.

Samuel Ealy Johnson Jr. (Lyndon Johnsons’ father. 1877-1937.)

Lyndon’s brother implies Lyndon’s conflicts with his father became part of his drive to be more successful than his father.

Caro infers Johnson and Moses were forces of nature. Both were political power users that understood how to use it to get their way. Obviously political power can be used for ill or good. One can argue New York City open spaces and parks were a great benefit to the city. On the other hand, many people were displaced to provide those open spaces. The Civil Rights Act passed during the Johnson administration benefited millions of minorities in America. On the other hand, an estimated 2,000,000 Vietnamese were killed, 58,000 American soldiers died, and another 288,000 Americans were wounded and/or disabled. How many Vietnamese, and Cambodians were wounded or disabled and how many are still being hurt by leftover landmines?

Caro offers a great service to the public in his writing about political power in American Democracy. Democracy is not a perfect political system, and Caro reveals where that imperfection lies by “turning every page”. Caro’s facts do not prove truth, but they do reveal the means and consequence of political power and influence in American Democracy.

CHICKEN IN EVERY POT

A “Chicken in Every Pot” will not come from fixing food prices or from job creation by reducing taxes on the wealthy.

Website: chetyarbrough.blog

AMERICAN POLITICS

Anyone who has read this blog knows its writer is not a fan of former President Trump. His position on immigration, tax policy, and American Constitutional ideals are only political props for rambling, muddled speeches that dangerously divide America. His promotion of American division was made clear on January 6, 2021.

Trump’s promotion of American division was made clear on January 6, 2021.

His speeches about immigration are only meant to vilify rather than manage its impact on the economy. It is the failure of Congress to approve legislation meant to ameliorate some of immigration policy’s faults. Trump waves a false flag of immigrant invasion when he is only a 2nd generation immigrant himself.

The vilification of immigration is a false flag.

He is supported by some wealthy Americans like Ms. Adelson whose family made a fortune in the Las Vegas casino business. In his 2017 election he was supported by the Koch family, one of the largest privately-owned companies in America. The argument made by many wealthy donors for Trump’s re-election is a belief that with the less taxes they pay, more jobs are created to lift the poor into the middle class. It is the ideal of capitalism and government that creates jobs. It is the ideas and hard work of people, not inherited wealth, that have made America great.

Trump believes in “trickle down” economic policy. His belief in cutting taxes is based on that belief.

Trump forgets where he came from. Despite his family success in America, Trump’s speeches reek with vile comments about immigrants. Without detailing some of the bad things Trump has done to become rich and influential, he lies about his past failures, and the worth of his assets. Trump revels in his moral turpitude. He is found liable for defamation and sexual abuse. He is a convicted of civil fraud for inflating his wealth to gain favorable bank loans. Trump does not represent what makes America great. He represents what makes America and capitalism flawed.

Trickle-down economics to reduce poverty, like the current economic idea of Kamela Harris for regulating food prices to help the poor, is not supported by history.

A “Chicken in Every Pot” will not come from fixing food prices or from job creation by reducing taxes on the wealthy. Roosevelt knew that; hopefully Trump will not be re-elected, and Kamela Harris will not make Hoover’s mistakes.

KKK

American Democracy is a work in progress and remains at risk of failure.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“A Fever in the Heartland” 

By: Timothy Egan

Narrated By: Timothy Egan

Timothy Egan (American Author, journalist, former columnist for the New York Times, won the National Book Award, the Carnegie Medal, and a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting.)

Timothy Egan’s “A Fever in the Heartland” is about the Ku Klux Klan and its growth in Indiana, the American Midwest, and Oregon in the early 1920s. Soon after the Civil War and death of Abraham Lincoln, a group of former Confederate veterans formed a social club in Pulaski, Tennessee.

The Ku Klux Klan grew into an underground movement that peaked in the 1920s with white American membership estimated at over 4 million.

Egan’s history is about the rise and fall of David Curtis “Steve” Stephenson who became the Grand Dragon of the Indiana Klan in 1923. Stephenson endorsed and promoted public hate toward immigrants and minorities. He became a proven liar who lied about his past and his actions as a leader. Egan’s history of Stephenson is an American political’ warning. Egan shows how character and honesty are as important in today’s politics as they were in the 1920s.

Egan’s choice of David Curtis Stephenson as a KKK’ leader illustrates how “A Fever in the Heartland” can grow to threaten American Democracy.

Stephenson is a man who smoothly lies his way to the top of a weak KKK’ chapter in Indiana by pandering to anti-immigration and anti-minority sentiments in the country. (The same sentiment seen in today’s America.) Stephenson became a rich man by recruiting the public into the KKK with a $10 fee for a white hooded garment ($4 for the garment, with $6 in his pocket) for membership to an exclusive group of American white men who would terrorize and murder non-whites, non-protestants, and immigrants. The KKK used secrecy to hide membership in this exclusive white American group.

The KKK hid their private reputations while (as an organization) publicly funding American celebrations and charities to feed its membership.

With membership dues and a persuasive personality, Stephenson (within 3 years) became a powerful and influential KKK’ leader. Stephenson convinced members of the KKK to become elected officials to gain control of government and public offices in Indiana. KKK’ members subsidized and promoted the election of like-minded white Americans. With control of government agencies, public services like the police and judiciary, the KKK controlled much of what happened in the State of Indiana. The wealth and influence of Indiana’s KKK planned a Presidential run in the late 1920s. The Indiana leader of the Republican Party was a member of the KKK and kowtowed to Stephenson as Grand Dragon of Indiana’s KKK.

Egan explains Stephenson was a persuasive carpetbagger who moved to Indiana from Texas while inferring he was an Indianan to become the Grand Dragon of Indiana’s KKK’ chapter.

Stephenson lied about his education and past but with success in increasing membership, he gained support of the National KKK’ organization. The truth of his background is that he abandoned his first wife and child when he left the lone star state. He was remarried to a second wife who leaves him. Stephenson beat his second wife who returned only to be beaten a second time when she attempted reconciliation. Egan noted Stephenson was a heavy drinker and abusive molester of women who worked for him. Stephenson was ultimately convicted of second-degree murder of Madge Oberholtzer, who was the creator and manager of a lending library.

Madge Oberholtzer (Stephenson is ultimately convicted of second-degree murder of Madge Oberholtzer for brutalization and rape.)

In the middle of the night, with the help of fellow Klansman, Madge Oberholtzer was kidnapped by Klansman working for Stephenson to take a train to Chicago. On the train, Stephenson rips Oberholtzer’ clothes off and rapes her. He used his teeth to bite her breast and parts of her body.

After being returned to Indianapolis, Overholtzer went to a drug store to buy bichloride of mercury, a slow acting poison. She chose to take the poison to end her life.

The taller man in this picture is Ephraim Inman, the defense attorney for Stephenson. He is standing next to Will Remy the prosecuting attorney, dubbed the “boy prosecutor” who successfully convicted Stephenson for 2nd degree murder.

Will Remy told the crowded courtroom that Stephenson “destroyed Madge’s body, tried to destroy her soul” and over the course of the trial tried to “befoul her character.” Overholtzer’s left breast and a bleeding right cheek were bitten by Stephenson when she was raped. Remy argues Stepheson’s teeth were a murder weapon. Attorney Asa Smith, a Overholtzer-family’ friend prepared a dying declaration for Madge Oberholzer that was placed into evidence.  Judge Sparks admitted the declaration and allowed Remy to read it to the jurors. (Sparks was not a Klansman.)

Stephenson considered himself, not only above the law, but as the law in Indiana. (That is a familiar refrain in the 21st century.) Stephenson was convicted for second degree murder. It was second degree murder because the cause of death was Madge Oberholzer’s decision to take her own life.

The Klan still exists in America.

James Alex Fields Jr. plowed into a crowd of demonstrators in Charlottsville, Va in 2017. He killed one of the protestors.

Fields admitted to being a member of the KKK. Though the Klan remained a political power in Indiana for some years after Stephenson’s trial and conviction, its Indiana’ power and influence was diminished. The national position of the Klan has declined in America as is believed in modern times, but it still exists.

Speaking about the white nationalist groups rallying against the removal of a Confederate statue, former President Trump said, “You had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides.”

As Egan’s history of Grand Dragon Stephenson illustrates, American Democracy is a work in progress and remains at risk of failure. Honesty of elected officials and “there being no person or elected official above the law” remain important for America to remain a Democracy.