Category: LEADERSHIP

POLITICAL CHAOS

Tariffs to restrict foreign production is shooting citizens in the foot by artificially increasing the cost of living.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Edge of Chaos: Why Democracy Is Failing to Deliver Economic Growth – and How to Fix It

By: Dambisa Moyo

Narrated By: Pamala Tyson

Dambisa Moyo (Zambian-born economist and author with a BS and MBA from Harvard, former World Bank consultant to Europe, Central Asia and Africa.)

“Edge of Chaos” is a revelatory and intelligent analysis of economic rewards and risks of democracies and dictatorships. Fundamentally, Moyo argues failures of government economies are related to societal instability and short-term government economic policies that are disproportionately influenced by monied interests and kleptocratic political leaders. Rich corporations and kleptocratic leaders distort economic opportunity, create chaos while producing and exacerbating economic inequality. She argues America is at the edge of chaos because of a flawed democratic election system that is biased toward short-term rather than long term economic policy.

Moyo identifies the Gini index of income inequality to show that there is little difference between the rich and poor in China and the United States despite their government leaders’ differences.

China is a dictatorship while America is a form of democracy. They are nearly the same on the Gini index scale of citizen inequality while South Africa, Zambia and Brazil are at the bottom. Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and most of the Scandinavian countries show the lowest differences in citizen’ economic inequality. Mayo argues the difference has little to do with their forms of government except in relation to their government policies. In her opinion, China and the United States could improve their citizen’s Gini index position if their government policies would focus on income equality.

Both China and America have relative stability but with different forms of government.

Unquestionably, freedom is the sine non quo (indispensable ingredient) of America, but it is income inequality that causes the chaos Moyo alludes to in her book. That chaos is not overtly apparent in China because of dictatorship but one who has traveled to China feels there is a similar level of discontent, if not chaos, among its citizens over economic inequality.

Moyo’s solution for reducing America’s growing chaos seems difficult but not impossible to implement.

Dambisa Moyo’s solution revolves around the following 8 recommendations.

  1. Make voting compulsory to increase voter participation more representative of the people.
  2. Make election to the House of Representatives a six-year term like the Senate to encourage longer term economic goals but limit the number of terms one can be in office. (Eliminate career politicians.)
  3. Increase the pay of politicians to what successful private sector leaders receive.
  4. Establish policy making agencies that can focus on long-term policies without being threatened by near term election cycles.
  5. Invest in the education of future leaders of the political system.
  6. Encourage public officials to focus on economic diversification with an educated understanding of technological change in the world.
  7. The wealth of the nation should be focused on reduction of economic inequality.
  8. Strategies to manage natural resources should be developed to focus on sustainability.

Fair trade is where America is on the wrong side of history according to the author.

Adam Smith believed in fair trade.

Adam Smith argued for removing trade barriers like tariffs and quotas because of limited natural resources. He explains resources are more efficiently allocated, product production is increased, and economic growth is improved with free trade. As inferred by Moyo, American chaos is partly a result of ignoring Adam Smith’s prescient understanding of economics.

America democracy has journeyed a long way since 1776.

America’s fundamental success came from its emphasis on freedom within rules-of-law organized around the “checks and balances” of three distinct branches of government, i.e., the executive, congressional, and judicial branches. This is the strength of American Democracy that has offered stability. The inference made in “Edge of Chaos” is that America’s stability is at risk if it does not adapt to technological change wrought by A.I. and global interconnectivity.

Service is a growth industry in America.

Technology is changing the nature of American productivity from material products to service. With the help of A.I., America can begin to address many of the service needs of its citizens. From aid to the homeless, to education for service to others, to drug treatment of the addicted, to improved health care for all, the prosperity and income of Americans can be more equitably shared.

Global interconnectivity requires greater acceptance of fair trade as originally described by Adam Smith.

Today’s alleged protection of worker employment by using tariffs to restrict foreign production is shooting citizens in the foot by artificially increasing the cost of living. Re-education for service to the public by using A.I. to make citizens more human-centered offers an alternative to 21st century American chaos.

These are intelligent observations by a very young and well-educated author.

TO BE FREE

The neglect and brutal treatment of Lithuanian citizens by Russia during WWII is graphically depicted in “Between Shades of Gray”.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Between Shades of Gray 

By: Ruta Sepetys

Narrated By: Emily Klein

Ruta Sepetys (Author, Lithuanian American writer of fiction, daughter of a Lithuanian refugee.)

This is a novel that many Americans will choose not to read. It is so relentlessly brutal that one is inclined to stop listening to, or reading, the novel. Many Americans take freedom for granted. Sepetys’ story reveals how ignorant the generational free are about what it is like to exist in a nation ruled by an unrestricted authoritarian leader. Sepetys recreates a story from a young girl’s notes and drawings of a Lithuania family’s loss of freedom during Stalin’s authoritarian rule.

The weight of “…Shades of Gray” makes one’s heart go out to the many Ukrainians losing their freedom and lives at Vladimir Putin’s monomaniacal direction.

Sepetys makes one see and understand how fortunate Americans are to live in a democratic country. The broad outline of the story is about the rounding up of Lithuania citizens during WWII to be sent to work camps in Siberia under the control of the Russian NKVD, the precursor of today’s Russian SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) and GRU (General Staff of the Armed Forces). At the beginning of WWII, Stalin orders the taking of the Baltic States into the U.S.S.R. by dismantling the in-place governments of the acquired countries. Any political opposition is to be arrested and deported to labor camps designed to serve the Russian economy.

Sepety’s novel is the story of one group of Lithuanians that are rounded up, sent to Siberia, and later moved to an even more hostile camp inside the Arctic Circle.

The essence of the story is based on a young girl’s notes and drawings about her experience. The neglect and brutal treatment of Lithuanian citizens by Russia during WWII is graphically depicted in “Between Shades of Gray”. The title alludes to the few Russian guards that surreptitiously aid the work camp prisoners. It is only gray because the help is often in return for cooperation or favor from the un-free.

IN THE ROOM

How close is the world to its next world war? The character of today’s leaders seems as threatening as Stalin and as unpredictable as Churchill.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Stalin Affair (The Impossible Alliance That Won the War)

By: Giles Milton

Narrated By: Giles Milton

Giles Milton (Author, British writer and historian.)

Giles Milton offers a fascinating and well written account of the dynamics of the relationship between Churchill and Stalin with a brief analysis of Franklin Roosevelt that shows a difference of opinion about Stalin. There are some surprises in Milton’s history of the beginning and ending of WWII and the role of Joseph Stalin.

As is well known, Stalin and Hitler made a pact at the beginning of the war that made them allies with a plan to divide Europe between their two countries.

The pact falls apart when Hitler chooses to invade Russia on June 22, 1941. Germany made rapid progress and was nearing Moscow when winter struck, and Germany’s wheels of war were stuck in the mud. Stalin was psychologically paralyzed by Germany’s decision to turn against Russia. He hid in his dacha, his second home in the Russian countryside. A delegation of Russians went to the Stalin’s dacha and pleaded with him to direct the defense of Russia against Germany’s onslaught. Stalin is surprised that the delegation wanted him to return to the leadership of Russia in Milton’s telling of the story. One presumes that reluctance is because of Stalin’s mistake in believing Hitler could be a reliable ally in their mutual desire to expand their territories.

Milton’s history has a particular interest to me because of a planned personal visit to the Baltics next month.

In reading a book about the Baltics during WWII, there seems some confusion among the Baltic countries because their sovereignty is being usurped by Russia while the instigator of WWII is Germany. The guide on the trip suggests we read “between shades of gray”, a book written by Rusa Sepetys, a Lithuanian born American writer. Sepetys story is of Lithuania intellectuals being arrested by Stalin’s troops and carted off to Siberia. Brief mention of the Germans is mentioned but implies the Germans were not the enemy but an opposing force of the Russian attack on the Baltics. Having visited Finland last year, it is interesting to find the Finns allied themselves to Germany during WWII because of their fear of Russia’s aggression. Now, having read Sepetys novel of Russian aggression in early 1941, one begins to understand the complexity of which side of the war the Baltics chose to be on.

Ruta Sepetys (Lithuanian born American writer.)

It tells the story of Russia’s invasion of the Baltics soon after Hitler’s decision to attack Russia.

WWII in the Baltics is not Milton’s history, but Sepetys offers a footnote on its consequence in the Baltics.

Milton makes one feel they are in the room when decisions are made about the progress and ending of WWII. It is a fascinating story. Stalin is a villain in sheep’s clothing. His lust for power is unquenchable. Winston Chruchill is shown to be more aware of Stalin’s intent than Franklin Roosevelt. At Yalta, where the peace plan is agreed to and signed, Milton explains Roosevelt is feeble. The Yalta conference took place in February 1945. Roosevelt dies in April, two months later. Stalin’s ambition is the expansion of the U.S.S.R. and anything that gets in the way of that ambition is an obstacle to be overcome or removed.

Milton’s access to historical documents, reveals the many important roles of government leaders during WWII and after.

Of course, the most obviously impactful leaders are Churchill and Stalin, but the author notes the roles of lesser-known participants like Averell Harriman, Kathy Harriman, and Vyacheslav Molotov. There is also the role of Lavrentiy Beria, Stalin’s head of the NKVD (the Soviet secret police).

W. Averell Harriman (1891-1986, American politician, businessman, and diplomat.)

Averell Harriman, as the son of a wealthy railroad baron, becomes the founder of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., an investment company. He became one of the richest men in America.

Harriman is asked by Roosevelt to become the America’s diplomatic contact with Great Britain to manage the Lend-Lease Program before America enters the war. As a personal envoy, he strengthens the alliance between Britain and America. Later he becomes Ambassador to the Soviet Union after Hitler’s betrayal of Stalin. Milton touches on the married Harriman’s attraction to women and his extramarital affairs. However, Harriman was revered by Churchill, and later Stalin, for the aid he coordinated for both countries during the war.

Kathleen Harriman (1917-2011, died at age 93.)

A lesser-known role is of Harriman’s daughter, Kathy Harriman. In the first years of contact between her father and Stalin, Ms. Harriman smooths America’s relationship with the Russian administration.

Ms. Harriman leaned to speak Russian and aided her father in his diplomatic contact with Soviet officials. She became a correspondent for the International News Service and Newsweek during her time in Russia. In 1944, Ms. Harriman exposes the mass murder of 22,000 Polish officers by the NKVD, at the order of Stalin. She plays a role in the Yalta Conference in assisting the American delegation with logistics and management.

Milton makes a listener feel like they are in the room at a dinner table with Stalin and Churchill when they exchange harsh words about the creation of a western front to aid the Russian army in the fight with German soldiers.

Stalin demeans the British army for their early failures in the war when they were outnumbered and outgunned by the Germans. Churchill is deeply offended by the disparagement and is on the verge of canceling a dinner with Stalin before leaving Russia. His anger is quelled by Harriman. Churchill changes his tone with the Russian leader and mends their relationship over cigars and alcohol. However, there is little doubt about their continued acrimony and Churchill’s unshaken belief in Stalin’s intent to expand his empire.

Milton offers the same “in the room” understanding of what happens at the Yalta Conference.

Germany is divided into four occupation zones which ended up being East and West Germany. The groundwork for the United Nations is formed with the aid of promoting international cooperation and prevention of future conflicts. A zone of influence is created between Eastern European Countries which were added to the U.S.S.R., to expand a buffer zone between Russia and the Western Powers. This iron curtain results in the cold war. The table is set at Yalta for the Nuremberg Trials of Nazi and Japanese leaders and for future reparations to rebuild Europe.

“The Stalin Affair” is an excellent reminder of WWII that makes one think about what is happening today with Russia in Ukraine and Israel in Gaza. How close is the world to its next world war? The character of today’s leaders seems as threatening as Stalin and as unpredictable as Churchill.

HARSH ASSESSMENT

No one can kill an idea. Ideas come from human beings who believe, rightly or wrongly, they are being victimized.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Homeland (The War on Terror in American Life)

By: Richard Beck

Narrated By: Patrick Harrison

Richard Beck (Born in 1987, received a BA from Harvard in 2009, Masters Degree in music from the University of North Texas, and Doctorate in performance and pedagogy from University of Iowa.)

On September 11, 2001, Richard Beck was 14 years old, living in a suburb of Philadelphia. In remembering life before 9/11, Beck looks at that tragedy as a reminder of life and America’s struggle to become a free and independent nation. “Homeland” uses the tragedy of 9/11 as an introduction to what might be interpreted as American Cowboyism.

Beck suggests the myth of American cowboys exemplifies who and what American society has been and will always be.

His recollection of 9/11’s news coverage is a distortion of reality. The reaction of the fire department, rather than heroic, is characterized as a matter of clean-up and ducking from falling debris and bodies, not of climbing stairs or entering buildings engulphed in fire and nearing collapse. Beck suggests like the myth of cowboys ridding America of Indian savages, expanding, and conquering the West, that firemen and rescuers did little to save workers in the towers collapse.

Beck’s history smacks of not being there but watching tv, reading echo chamber books, and listening to and watching news of the 9/11 tragedy.

Heroism is being there when the planes hit the towers, when smoke and debris were choking firefighters and police trying to cordon the area from surrounding businesses and people. This is the same fault Beck has of writing of unreasonably lionized frontiersmen and later leaders of America and the mistakes made by America’s leaders in the Civil War, Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Horrible things have happened in America’s history that have been caused by humans who are not gods but fallible, self-interested strivers for a better life. The meaning of life in America evolves just as it does in every country of the world. No society is proud of their failures, but failures are part of being human. Obviously, it is how we overcome failures that makes society.

Beck’s inference that Martin Luther King’s “…arc of the moral universe is long but bends towards justice” as a false observation breaks a listener’s heart.

Many would disagree because life for native Americans, women, non-white minorities, and the white majority have improved over the years since the founding of American democracy. This is not to say, there are not miles to go for America to realize equality-of-opportunity for all its citizens.

Beck uses the great tragedy of Gaza and Israel’s occupation and murder of innocents as a primary example of American Democracy’s failure.

There is little to argue that Israel is crossing a Rubicon of regret for their slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. Palestine has as much right to exist as the nation of Israel.

America’s position has been to support Israel because they are a bastion against systems of government that have little to no interest in equality of opportunity for all. The author fails to appreciate America’s guilt for turning away Jewish immigrants fleeing Europe during WWII when six million Jewish people were slaughtered in concentration camps.

Beck’s history disregards and diminishes the history of Jewish ethnicity that has given so much to societies’ advance of science, literature, and political theory.

This is not to argue Israel is right in thinking that ridding Hamas or Hezbollah leaders can be accomplished with ethnic cleansing while murdering innocent bystanders. No one can kill an idea. Ideas come from human beings who believe, rightly or wrongly, they are being victimized. Israel is making the same mistake Nazi’s made when they began exterminating Jews in WWII.

AI TRANSITION

The potential of AI is akin to the Industrial Revolution, yet it could surpass it significantly if managed correctly by humans.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The AI-Savvy Leader (Nine Ways to Take Back Control and Make AI Work)

By: David De Cremer

Narrated By: David Marantz

David De Cremer (Author, Belgian born professor at Northeastern University in Boston, and behavioral scientist with academic studies in economics and psychology.)

“The AI-Savvy Leader” should be required reading for every organization investing in artificial intelligence for performance improvement. From government to business, to eleemosynary organizations, De Cremer offers a guide for organizational transition from physical labor to labor-saving benefits of AI.

AI offers the working world the opportunity to increase their productivity without the mind-numbing physical labor of assembly lines and administrative scut work.

Like assembly line production implemented by Ford and work report filing and writing during the industrial revolution, AI offers an opportunity to increase productivity without the mind-numbing physical labor of assembly line work and after-work’ analysis reports. With AI, more time is provided to workers to think and do what can be done to be more productive.

Arguably, AI is similar to the industrial revolutions transition to assembly line work. Assembly line work improved over time by changes that made it more productive. Why would one think that AI is any different? It is just another tool for improving productivity. The concern is that AI means less labor will be required and that workers will lose their jobs. De Cremer notes loss of employment is one of the greatest concerns of employees working for an organization transitioning to AI. Too many times organizations are looking at reducing costs with AI rather than increasing productivity.

The solution identified by De Cremer is to make AI transition human centered.

His point is that organizations need to understand the human impact of AI on employees’ work process. AI should not only be viewed as a cost-cutting process but as a process of reducing repetitive work for labor to make added contributions to an organization’s goals. AI does not guarantee continued employment, but reduced manual labor offers time and incentive to improve organization productivity through employee’ cooperation rather than opposition. AI is mistakenly viewed as an enemy of labor when, in fact, it is a liberator of labor that provides time to do more than tighten bolts on an auto body frame.

AI is not a panacea for labor and can be a threat just like industrialization was to many craftsmen.

But, like craftsman that went to work for industries, today’s labor will join organizations that have successfully transitioned to AI with a human-centered rather than cost-reduction mentality. Labor productivity is only a part of what any AI transition provides an organization. What is often discounted is customer service because labor is consumed by repetitive work. If AI improves labor productivity, more time can be provided to an organization’s customers.

When AI is properly human centered, the customer can be offered more personal attention by fellow human beings employed by an AI organization.

Too many organizations are using AI to respond to customer complaints. Human-centered AI becomes a win-win opportunity because labor is not consumed by production and has the time to understand customer unhappiness with service or product. AI does not think like a human. AI only responds based on the memory of what AI has been programmed to recall. With human handling of customer complaints, problems are more clearly understood. Opportunity for customer satisfaction is improved.

De Creamer acknowledges AI has introduced much closer monitoring of worker performance and carries some of the same mind-numbing work introduced in assembly line manufacturing.

De Creamer suggests negative consequences of AI should be dealt with directly with employees when AI becomes a problem. Part of a human-centered AI organization’s responsibility is allowing employees to take breaks during their workday without being penalized for slackening production. Repetitive tasks have always been a drain on productivity, but it has to be recognized and responded to in the light of overall productivity of an organization.

AI, like the industrial revolution, is shown as a great opportunity for human beings.

De Creamer suggests AI is not and will never be human. To De Creamer AI is a recallable knowledge accumulator and is only a programmed tool of human minds, not a replacement for human thought and understanding. The potential of AI is akin to the Industrial Revolution, yet it could surpass it significantly if managed correctly by humans.

RULE BY THE ONE

With rule by the one there are no checks and balances which threatens war and discounts peace.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Autocracy, Inc. (The Dictators Who Want to Run the World)

By: Anne Applebaum

Narrated By: Anne Applebaum

Anne Applebaum (Author, journalist, historian, wrote Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction with “Gulag: A History” Also wrote “Red Famine”, both of which have been reviewed in this blog.)

“Autocracy, Inc.” infers there are two forms of government in the world, one is autocratic, the other democratic. Applebaum shows autocracies are often venal and kleptocratic. One might agree, but immorality and greed are a part of human nature in every form of government. This is not something Applebaum denies, but all forms of government have experienced excesses of wealth and power that have led to autocracy. What Applebaum argues is that autocracy is more threatening today than at any time in history.

The prestige of national leaders is by definition power.

As the British Lord Acton noted in 1887–“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”. Both democratic and autocratic leaders are subject to Acton’s aphorism. This is not to say Applebaum’s argument is not important, but no form of government, including democracy, has been found to fairly regulate the faults of human nature.

What Applebaum makes clear is that autocracy magnifies the faults of human nature because in countries like China, North Korea, Myanmar, Russia, parts of Africa, and similar autocracies, there are no checks and balances.

Imprisonment, torture, and murder for challenges to leadership are condoned, and commonplace. Applebaum’s added dimension is that many autocratic nations have begun aligning themselves to split the world between the lands of the relatively free and the chained.

Alexi Nalvany
Liyu Xiuaobo
Jang Song-thaek
Aung San Suu Kyi

Applebaum offers many examples of imprisonment, torture, and murder in autocratic countries. Some of the most famous are Navalny in Russia, the Nobel Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo in China, Jang Song-thaek, the second most powerful leader in North Korea, and of course, Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar. However, what makes Applebaum’s history terrifying is the calculated and cooperative effort by aligned autocracies to subvert freedoms offered in America and other democratic countries.

The author argues many autocratic leaders have become so powerful that no fellow countryman, regardless of their location, is safe from incarceration or assassination.

Assassination of Kim Jon Un’s brother.

Vladimir Putin is believed to have ordered the assassination of a number of Russian citizens around the world. Autocracies use the tools of State to directly or indirectly threaten or assassinate dissidents anywhere in the world.

Facial recognition in China.

The advance of Artificial Intelligence has magnified the strength of autocratic rule with tools of surveillance, assassination, and indoctrination that reach around the world. Applebaum argues the line between democracies and autocracies is hardening to the point of irreconcilable difference, leading to wars between states and territories like Syria, Ukraine, Sudan, and Gaza.

Democracy has its problems which includes dalliance with autocracy, but rule by the one where there are no checks and balances threatens war and discounts peace.

INTERCONNECTEDNESS

The concern one may have about the interconnected world is that it homogenizes society. Anand’s interconnected world implies free-will is a fiction.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“The Content Trap” A Strategist’s Guide to Digital Change

By: Bharat Anand

Narrated By: Jason Culp

Bharat Anand (Author, American economist, Professor of Business administration at Harvard Business School.)

Bharat Anand offers a compelling explanation of how connection has become as important as “…Content…” in the digital age. His point is not to say content is irrelevant but without understanding digital interconnectedness, Anand infers profits, personal achievement, and commercial success are diminished or lost.

In the digital age, Anand argues if success is measured by profit, longevity, or fame, the key to success is adapting to interconnectedness.

Anand argues business managers and companies will fail if they do not adjust to changes in the way the public sees, understands, and uses the digital world. To give examples of his point, Anand notes the adjustments made by Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and the Fox TV network that have changed their business models to adjust to a digital world. Anand explains the digital world is a ubiquitous force (interconnected by computers, smartphones, and the internet) used by insightful individuals and businesses to achieve their goals.

Apple initially focused on product design and utility and earned a reputation for excellent product.

However, as the product evolved, Anand notes Apple’s specialization in quality meant less to their success than the connectivity to sources of information, entertainment, and people. The iPhone became ubiquitous and highly profitable when they improved Apple connectivity among iPhone’ users. They expanded that connectivity with their iTunes creation, audio book features, and various internet media offerings.

Microsoft specializes in software development tools that can be used by individuals and businesses to improve their communication skills and connectedness inside and outside their business.

Microsoft’s software enhances interconnectedness and communication while providing useful information to banks, affiliates, and users to understand the value of their business and how they may or may not complement each other’s performance. Microsoft expands their interconnectedness with an annual subscription system that appeals to repeat users of Microsoft’s updated software.

Google substantially improves their reach into the digital age by choosing to pay Apple $20,000,000 a year to use their search engine.

Though that is challenged by the government as a monopolization of trade, it illustrates the truth of Anand’s observation about the value of interconnectedness among companies in today’s digital world as a way of improving profits, growing, and assuring longevity.

Amazon ranks as one of the leading retailers and suppliers of consumer goods in America.

Bezos introduces many marketing innovations based on interconnections with customers that include many consumer enhancements. Amazon created its own storage and delivery service to directly compete with same day availability of product that showed customers could get product as fast as they could by going to a box retailer. Amazon capitalized on book selling by creating a portable library with Kindle that lowered NY Times’ best-selling books at half or less than the recommended retail price.

Fox television rose to compete with the big three television networks by buying the rights to NFL football at a price far beyond what the networks at that time were willing to pay. Digital age football fan connectivity gave Fox the power and influence to become the 4th major tv network in America.

Anand’s point is that adaptation, rather than opposition to evolving human connectivity, is the key to success. Identifying what is happening in the world and adapting to societal inevitabilities offers opportunities to keep pace with change and prosper. Anand is not saying content does not matter but that content is improved by adapting, rather than resisting or fighting evolving societal norms.

Anand addresses a favorite publication of many, “The Economist”, an international newspaper that has weathered the storm of newspaper disappearance in the 20th and 21st century.

Anand notes “The Economist” has prospered since the 19th century, despite the collapse of the newspaper industry in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. He argues it survives and prospers because of editorial development of international’ news through consensus of its experienced and educated writers. One might accept his observation but with reservation because of a recent survey request from the “Economist” for reader response.

The “Economist” survey form is daunting because it infers a pricing scheme based on digitalization of its articles. Having received the survey, some (like me) choose to throw it away.

The appeal of “The Economist” is in its editorial opinion of the world. Those who have traveled around the world are fascinated by the editorial opinions of a group of educated generalist opinion writers. Their survey may have been to solicit better reader connectivity, but it read like a prescription for higher prices for publication.

The threat of digitization of the “Economist” may ruin its appeal to many readers. It seems the “Economist” would change if it follows what seems the intent of their survey. The “Economist” survey seems like a digitization of their work to make it more connected to an untraveled public. They risk falling into the trap of “breaking news” rather than an insightful editorial opinion about non-western cultural policies and beliefs. They would be following the lead of many newspapers that couldn’t adjust to the interconnected digital world and had to close their doors.

Anand’s book is interesting and seems largely correct about the road to economic success, i.e., people and companies adjusting to the reality and understanding of an increasingly interconnected world.

The concern one may have about the interconnected world is that it homogenizes society. Anand’s interconnected world implies free-will is a fiction.

M.A.D. (Mutually Assured Destruction)

The near assassination of Trump is a harbinger of a world unduly influenced by today’s technology and media influence.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Playing with Reality”

By: Kelly Clancy

Narrated By: Patty Nieman

Kelly Clancy (Author, graduate of MIT in physics with a Ph.D. in biophysics from U.C. Berkley.)

Kelly Clancy has a distinct point of view as a scientist. Her understanding of game theory and the mathematics of probability may steer reader/listeners away from her interesting book. “Playing with Reality” is less like playing and more like hard work, at least in the first chapters. Clancy begins by defining game theory and its permutations. Then she explains how it is a flawed tool for understanding human behavior. As one gets through the first chapters of her book, a reader/listener realizes Clancy is offering more than gaming theory history.

Clancy offers a detailed history of the growth of computer technology through the use of gaming programs designed to educate, entertain, and enrich private companies, public conglomerates, and individuals.

Clancy reveals the growth of chess playing gaming programs like Deep Thought, Big Blue, and Deep Blue to expose the battle line between human and artificial intelligence. Clancy is a skeptic of gaming technology–with a warning.

Clancy’s skepticism lies in mistaking game-theory’ studies as proof of predictive human behavior.

Clancy notes human behavior is not predictable for many reasons; one of which is human irrationality, and another is a human’s sense or understanding that he/she is being manipulated for prescribed responses. For example, in the first instance, a person may be irrationally afraid of all snakes even though there are no poisonous snakes in their State. In the second instance, a person who knows the theory of something like the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” can choose to modify their behavior and respond based on knowledge of previous experimental studies.

John von Neumann (1903-1957, Hungarian American mathematician, physicist, computer scientist, engineer and polymath.)

The troubling part (the warning) revealed by Clancy is that brilliant people like John von Neumann, an intellectual giant of the twentieth century, can have bad ideas. Clancy notes von Neuman considered preemptively nuking the Soviet Union because he reasoned it would (and it did) successfully create a nuclear bomb soon after America’s bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Neuman presumably considered this a rational option based on game-theory thinking.

Today, one wonders what Russia’s leader is capable of with nuclear weapons if he considers them just another tool of war.

Clancy notes Putin, like the President of the United States, is legislatively authorized to unilaterally choose to use nuclear weapons to protect what they believe is a threat to their countries. The gaming industry and the growth of A.I. are not the problem. Human nature is the problem. There are not enough checks and balances to keep well intentioned Presidents or bad actors from making bad decisions.

Clancy shows how the computer gaming industry has obscured the tragic consequence of violence by returning murdered life in a game back to life so they can play the game again. The game is not real, but the lesson is that gun violence is ok because it is just a game that can be replayed. Computer gaming has become a gateway to violence in the world. Easy access to guns is a problem in America but guns are instruments of violence, not the cause of violence. Among the causes are, poor education, poverty, mental dysfunction, and gaming that distorts reality.

Political position and power are dangerous in the face of human irrationality, a not uncommon characteristic of intelligent, ill-informed, or uncaring political leaders. In this age of computer drones and face recognition, three American citizens, one Iranian citizen, and an Egyptian’ Al Quada leader were killed by drone strikes at the order of American Presidents.

Abdulrahman al-Awlaki
Anwar al-Awlaki
Kamal Derwish
Qasem Soleimani
Ayman al-Zawahiri

These murders may or may not have been justified but they exemplify the danger of gaming, face recognition, and the future of artificial intelligence. Clancy tempers her assessment of gaming in the last chapters of her book, but some will come away from her positive comments with a sick feeling in their stomach.

The near assassination of former President Trump is a harbinger of a world unduly influenced by today’s technology and media influence.

DEMOCRACY OR ELSE

“…saving America” will not come from “…ten easy steps” but from one vote at a time.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Democracy or Else” How to Save America in 10 Easy Steps

By: Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor

Narrated By: Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor

(Left to Right) Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor

The suggestion that “Democracy or Else” comes from “…10 Easy Steps” on “How to Save America…” is an oversimplification of life and politics. Saving America takes hardened objective opinion, personal commitment, appreciation of the difficulty of being a political leader, and most importantly, the wisdom of Jesus Christ. Few, if any humans fit the bill. Voting is the only thing that everyone who believes in American Democratic leadership will agree upon in the author’s “…10 Easy Steps”. The steps are not easy. The authors appear to have committed some time and effort to fulfill some part of the 10 steps.

Many (not most) Americans may be willing to vote but working on a campaign for a candidate who wishes to be elected to public office will always be low on their list of commitments.

Human beings, let alone Americans, are an unruly lot. Making a living, waiting for a hand-out, hating or loving others, and experience of life come first in the minds of most, if not all, human beings. The nuts and bolts of what it takes to become an elected representative in Democracy are way down on the list of humans’ self-interest. American Democracy, like all known forms of government, have winners and losers. Democracy has the best odds for serving the self-interest of its citizens but remains far from the idealistic goals of the U.S. Constitution.

American Presidents have been good and bad throughout history. Only a few have earned the history of “good or great” for America. The checks and balances of American government, the ideals of the Constitution, capitalism, and expanded voting rights have saved American Democracy from tyranny. Anyone who has read this blog, knows there is an opinion about the next President’s election but “…saving America” will not come from “…ten easy steps” but from one vote at a time.

TRAGEDY’S LESSON

The sharpened point of Slade’s story is that, like the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald and El Faro, it takes great tragedy before change takes place.

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

“Into the Raging Sea” Thirty-Three Mariners, One Megastorm, and the Sinking of the El Faro

By: Rachel Slade

Narrated By: Erin Bennett

Rachel Slade (Author, winner of the Maine Literary Award for non-fiction.)

Rachel Slade begins her book with the last words of a mariner calling for help from a sinking ship in the grip of a Hurricane. The ship is the El Faro. The author writes her story based on the El Faro’s written log during a severe storm somewhere between Florida and Puerto Rico. The storm was Hurricane Joaquin, a category 4 Hurricane that had recorded wave heights of 10 meters (over 32 feet). Winds ranged from 130 to 156 mph with rough seas, roiled by rogue waves. Rogue waves are twice the size of surrounding waves and appear unexpectedly.

Slade methodically sets a table for the El Faro on a “…Raging Sea”.

Slade writes about a mariner’s desperate call for help. In its beginning, the story lags but the author offers cultural insight to the life of merchant marines, the equipment they operate, and the business of international trade. Her story explains how important and dangerous the life of a merchant marine can be, why it is important, and how mariners are dependent on equipment they use, their shipmates’ qualifications, and business owners’ drive for success.

Every person makes decisions about what they are going to do to make their way in life.

Becoming a merchant marine, like every decision in life, is based on personal circumstances, ambitions, and choices. Slade describes the El Faro mariners as adventurous and interested in seeing the world and being paid for what they do. Some are educated, others not, but all learn what they need to do to be part of a mariners’ crew.

There are schools for mariners at all levels of education but like any job, one can start at the bottom as a laborer that learns by doing. What the story of the El Faro shows is that like in any chosen job in life, some become expert at what they do, others try and fail, try again or move on. What Slade infers is that the El Faro sinks because of its crew but also because of others, both on and off the sea. As John Donne wrote in 1624, “no man (or woman) is an island”–emphasizing the interconnectedness of society.

The owners of the El Faro were in the business of internation trade to make money.

The crew of the El Faro wanted to be paid but to some it was adventure and/or escape from a humdrum of life. Undoubtedly, mariners were motivated for different reasons. Some wished to see the world, be recognized for good work, wished to crew on bigger and better vessels, or be promoted to higher position. Motivation and ambition are different for everyone. What is lost to history are details. Slade tries to reveal some of the details about the El Faro’ crew, its owners, the ship, and the business of international trade. Why did the El Faro sink? Who and what was lost? What is it like to be in a hurricane at sea? Is somewhat at fault?

Slade’s story gains momentum as sinking of the El Faro seems imminent.

The aftermath is a careful and detailed explanation of rescues at sea, why the El Faro sank, what rescue efforts were made, how families of the lost were affected, and what changes were demanded in the industry. The loss of 33 mariners, the entire crew of the El Faro, is a horrible tragedy for the families who lost their loved ones. The causes of the tragedy range from crew mistakes to ship design to corporate malfeasance. The common thread is human nature.

What this review suggests is that the fundamental issue in every form of government and society is balance between public and private good.

One will draw their own conclusions from Slade’s history of the loss of the El Faro. In a capitalist society, balance is dependent on prudent regulation. Prudence is meant to mean the use of human reason to balance the needs of the public with private interests. That balance is complicated by human nature that drives private interests to focus on money, power, and prestige rather than public need.

Slade shows regulation of international trade often conflicts with private interests that object to regulation and improvements in ship design.

Conflict between public good and private interest is not a new discovery. Neither is the sinking of the El Faro. The sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975 led to changes in international shipping. Business owners were required to provide survival suits for mariners in their employ, depth finders, positioning systems, improved ship design, and inspections by the Coast Guard became mandatory. These were regulations that increased costs of shipping that rippled through the economy and initially penalized private interests. The public benefits because mariners are safer, and families are less threatened by loss. The public also suffers because transported goods become more expensive. Balance eventually occurs as private interests are compelled to pay more for labor which is part of the public.

Capitalism works because it is a process that balances public need with private interests. Capitalism’s weakness is that the process takes time to balance public needs with private interests.

The sharpened point of Slade’s story is that, like the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald and El Faro, it takes great tragedy before change takes place.