GOVERNMENT – Page 28 – REVIEWS AND VIEWS OF LIFE

PRACTICAL PHYSICS

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Physics for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines

By Richard A. Muller

Narrated by Peter Larkin

RICHARD A. MULLER (PROFESSOR OF PHYSICS @ UNIVERSITY OF CALIFNIA, BERKELEY) — RICHARD A. MULLER (PROFESSOR OF PHYSICS @ UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY)

“Physics for Future Presidents” suggests understanding of practical physics is critical for future Presidents. Richard Muller’s argument is that Presidents need to know some physics to comprehend the utility of everything from energy, to manned space flight, to satellite surveillance, to terrorist use of nuclear bombs. Muller is not arguing that future Presidents need to understand the science of physics but the practical limitations of manned space flight, carbon-based energy, satellite intelligence, and weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Muller begins his book with the modern world’s effort to understand and contain terrorism. Muller’s book seems apropos based on President Trump’s effort to limit science research, discount CIA and FBI intelligence, and denuclearize North Korea.

TRUMP AND KIM MEETING — President Trump’s effort to limit science research, discount CIA and FBI intelligence, and denuclearize North Korea.

Muller explores the possibility of a terrorist organization building a nuclear bomb and detonating it in the middle of an American City. He looks at the possibility from three perspectives. One, difficulty in acquiring fissionable material; two, difficulty of building a nuclear device and three, difficulty in delivering a weapon of mass destruction to a desired location.

Surprisingly, Miller suggests a greater danger is terrorist attack by private planes, loaded with highly flammable fuel. Or, for a terrorist organization to use chemical and biological agents that directly or indirectly infect population centers.

CHEMICAL ATTACKS — Surprisingly, Miller suggests a greater danger is terrorist attack by private planes, loaded with highly flammable fuel. Or, for a terrorist organization to use chemical and/or biological agents that directly or indirectly infect population centers.

9.11.01TRADE CENTER ATTACK — Muller reasons a future terrorist attack (with 1000s killed) will be like 9/11, but with a private plane filled with fuel (not a nuclear bomb) flown into a major entertainment event.

Miller believes practical physics will determine the next world terrorist attack. Miller argues that the simplest plan will have the greatest impact. (Of course, there is also the implied psychology of terrorism.) Muller reasons a future terrorist attack (with 1000s killed) will be like 9/11, but with a private plane filled with fuel (not a nuclear bomb) flown into a major entertainment event.

There are a number of counter-intuitive insights in “Physics for Future Presidents”. Muller believes manned space flight is a waste of money. He argues that most of the greatest innovations in science have come from unmanned space flight. Weather satellites, spy satellites, entertainment satellites, global positioning satellites, drones, exploration of planets and the solar system have all come from unmanned space flight. Muller believes there is a time for manned space flight but not now. It is too dangerous and produces little new-science. He implies America should primarily invest in unmanned space flight.

CURIOSITY--FIRST -SELFIE- IN 2015 ON MARS — CURIOSITY–FIRST -SELFIE- IN 2015 ON MARS (Muller believes there is a time for manned space flight but not now. It is too dangerous and produces little new-science. He implies America should primarily invest in unmanned space flight.)

DR. STRANGLOVE — Dr. Strangelove- Richard Muller, at times, seems to stand at the side of fictional character Dr. Strangelove.(Movie titled “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb)

Richard Muller, at times, seems to stand at the side of fictional character Dr. Strangelove. He describes historical information about radiation poisoning from nuclear bombs and accidents. Muller notes that statistical deaths from war (the Nagasaki and Hiroshima bombing), Three Mile Island, and Chernobyl show that deaths from nuclear radiation is small in comparison to terrorist events initiated by simple, practical, and conventional physics.

Muller argues that nuclear power can be used as a fail-safe source of energy by using the latest technology for nuclear power plants. The latest technology (actually first used in the 1960s by Germany) is a pebble bed reactor (PBR). It is considered safe because it does not rely on water cooling of the nuclear core in the event of an accident.

PEBBLE BED REACTOR IN WEST GERMANY – Muller argues that nuclear power can be used as a fail-safe source of energy by using the latest technology for nuclear power plants. The latest technology (actually first used in the 1960s by Germany) is a pebble bed reactor (PBR). It is considered safe because it does not rely on water cooling of the nuclear core in the event of an accident.

YUCCA MOUNTAIN NUCLEAR WASTE DEPOSITORY NEAR LAS VEGAS, NEVADA (Richard Muller believes Yucca Mountain is an adequately safe repository for nuclear waste that should be reopened.)

This is unlikely to be a popular book in Las Vegas, Nevada. Among other controversial subjects, Richard Muller believes Yucca Mountain is an adequately safe repository for nuclear waste that should be reopened. His argument largely rests on the science of probability. Muller infers that natural radiation in Colorado is as toxic as the probability of radiation leaks from stored nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain.

Muller argues that revision of nuclear construction standards in the United States would make construction of pebble bed reactors less expensive than conventional American nuclear facilities. The added benefit is a safer energy source that reduces the need for carbon based energy supplies that increase global warming. A large part of Muller’s argument for the use of more nuclear power is based on the generally accepted scientific belief that global warming exists and is most likely caused by human activity.

Muller spends a great deal of time explaining that global warming is not a 100% certainty but, in probability terms, is highly likely and largely related to carbon-based energy use. He notes that use of carbon-based energy is likely to increase with China and India’s continued economic growth. Muller creates a sense of urgency in creating other sources of energy. He strongly urges increasing motor vehicle mileage requirements but questions the viability of battery operated vehicles. Muller believes the costs of battery replacement will drive consumers back to carbon-based energy models.

ELON MUSK ROLLS THE DICE AGAIN BY PURCHASING SOLAR CITY, THE LARGEST SOLAR CONVERSION COMPANY IN THE U.S.–Muller sees potential in solar and wind energy production but believes conservation will do more short-term good than any new source of energy.

Muller sees potential in solar and wind energy production but believes conservation will do more short-term good than any new source of energy. He clearly sees that the cost of energy is the primary driver of technological innovation. As long as oil and coal are less expensive than other sources of energy, they will remain the primary source of power. With that realization, Muller insists on technological innovation in conservation because it motivates the consumer to become a part of the energy-crises’. Consumer’ participation is guaranteed by savings received from use of more energy-efficient devices.

The key to the world’s future is energy. Muller believes the short-term solution is conservation. He believes long-term solution revolves around nuclear fission and fusion. Fusion is a longer term prospect but offers an infinite source of energy. Fission is shown to work now, with probabilities of failure that can be improved upon.

This circles back to the critical importance of storing nuclear waste. Muller notes that the fragmented system of nuclear storage in the United States is a bigger risk to the environment than having it located in a limited number of specifically designed storage locations. Yucca Mountain fits Muller’s criteria for safe storage of nuclear waste. He acknowledges that nuclear accidents may occur but the probability of an accident at Yucca Mountain is less than the probability of accident at other relatively unsecured and fragmented sites.

The physics that Muller insists Presidents must understand is that scientific proof is a matter of probability; not absolute certainty. Muller warns Presidents to not be misled by cherry-picking fact finders that have objectives that are not related to practical physics. Even if there is no certainty in science, knowing probabilities offer a basis for informed decision.

TODAY’S LUDDITES

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Glass Cage-Automation and Us

By: Nicholas Carr

Narrated by: Jeff Cummings

NICHOLAS G. CARR (AMERICAN WRITER-FORMER EDITOR OF HARVARD BUISNESS REVIEW)

NICHOLAS G. CARR (AMERICAN WRITER-FORMER EDITOR OF HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)

The Glass Cage, written by Harvard alumnus Nicholas Carr, ironically places him in the shoes of an uneducated English textile artisan of the 19^th century, known as a Luddite.

Luddites protested against the industrial revolution because machines were replacing jobs formerly done by laborers. Just as the Luddites fomented arguments against mechanization, Carr argues automation creates unemployment and diminishes craftsmanship.

WORKMEN TAKE OUT THEIR ANGER ON MACHINES DURING THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. (Just as the Luddites fomented arguments against mechanization, Carr argues automation creates unemployment and diminishes craftsmanship.)

Workmen take out their anger on the machines

Carr carries the Luddite argument a step further by inferring a mind’s full potential may only be achieved through a conjunction of mental and physical labor. Carr posits the loss of physical ability to make and do things diminishes civilization by making humans too dependent on automation.

There is no question that employment was lost in the industrial revolution; just as it is in the automation age, but jobs have been and will continue to be created as the world adjusts to this new stage of productivity.

Unquestionably, the advent of automation is traumatic but elimination of repetitive industrial labor by automation is as much a benefit to civilization as the industrial revolution was to low wage workers spinning textile.

The Covid19 pandemic of 2020 will accelerate world’ transition to automation. Though this book is written earlier than the pandemic’s economic consequence, corporations are reevaluating the necessity for office buildings to conduct their business. More and more employees will work from home.

Employment adjustment is traumatic. The trauma of this age is that work with one’s hands is being replaced by work with one’s brain. The education of the world needs to catch up with socio-economic change; just as labor did in the 20^th century. To suggest humans do not learn when they cannot fly a plane, build a house, or construct an automobile with their own hands is a specious argument.

Houses and cars have not been built by one person since humans lived in caves and iron horses replaced carriage horses. Houses and cars were built by teams of people who worked with their hands but only on specific tasks. Those teams of people were managed by knowledge workers.

Service and education for society are the keys to the transition from industrialization to automation.

Automation of tasks reduces the mind numbing, low pay work of laborers. Automation turns manual labor into the development and education of people who design hardware and software to execute tasks that result in more safely flown planes, new houses, new cars, new refrigerators, so on and so on.

Carr suggests that airplane pilots should be given more control over automated planes they fly despite the facts he quotes that clearly show plane crashes kill fewer people today than ever in history. They are bigger, faster, and more complicated to fly. The argument that pilots need to learn how to fly a jumbo jet when automation fails is like telling a farmer to pull out his scythe to harvest the wheat because the thresher quit working.

Carr’s argument is that pilots have forgotten how to fly because automation replaced their skill set. To state the obvious, planes are not what they were 100 or even 10 years ago.

One might argue that Boeing’s 737 Max mistakes are evidence that Carr is correct in suggesting planes have become too complicated, but it ignores the reality of mistakes have always being made by humans. Humans are preternaturally motivated by self-interest.

Boeing’s leaders made mistakes in not fully analyzing and disclosing risks of 737 changes, and in not adequately training airline pilots on the safety features of the plane.

Carr raises a morality argument for not saving life when an automated machine makes a decision rather than a human being. One can suggest an example of how an automated machine is more likely to make the right decision than a human.

For example, presume a driver-less car is programmed to save its occupant when an injured bicyclist is laying in the street around a blind curve. A fast moving automated car with a family inside, with mountain cliffs on both sides of the road, will drive over the bicyclist without conscience. The bicyclist is dead but the car passengers are alive. If the car is driven by a person, both the cyclist and the family are likely dead.

THINKING SLOW — Carr’s argument is that humans need to make their own intuitive decisions. As pointed out by Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking Fast and Slow”, the primary “think fast” mode in humans is intuition, which is often wrong.

Without doubt, many automation errors (e.g., the 737 Max) have been and will be made in the future, but to suggest automation is not good for society is as false as the Luddites arguments about industrialization.

This period of the world’s adjustment is horrendously disruptive. It is personal to every parent or person that cannot feed, clothe, and house their family or themselves because they have no job.

Decrying the advance of automation is not the answer. Making the right political decisions about how to help people make job transitions is what will advance civilization.

WAR’S HARD PART

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Fives and Twenty-Fives

Written by: Michael Pitre

Narration by: Kevin T. Collins, Nick Sullivan, Jay Snyder, Fajer Al-Kaisi

The simple part of any war is having friends and enemies; the hard part is in knowing the difference. “Fives and Twenty Fives” shows the simplicity and complexity of all wars. Any veteran of the American military knows that part of basic training is building a team of soldiers to form a comradeship as strong as civilian friendship. However, the difference between civilian and military friendship is the underlying command and control requirements of military organizations.

The author of “Fives and Twenty Fives” is an ex-Marine. His novel is about friendship; i.e. more fundamentally about friendship on both sides of a war.

IRAQ INVASION — The author of “Fives and Twenty Fives” is an ex-Marine. His novel is about friendship; i.e. more fundamentally about friendship on both sides of a war.

IRAQ INTERPRETERS — Unlike the American Civil War, the war in Iraq requires language interpreters. Most interpreters are in-country natives and have not gone through conventional military basic training.

The theater of war in Michael Pitre’s novel is Iraq. Unlike the American Civil War, the war in Iraq requires language interpreters. Most interpreters are in-country natives and have not gone through conventional military basic training. Command and control is learned by most of these interpreters “on the fly”. Friendship is earned by experience rather than training. Pitre introduces Dodge, the Iraqi interpreter, for a Marine team led by Lieutenant Donovan.

Dodge introduces an underlying theme of “Fives and Twenty Fives” in a conversation with Lieutenant Donovan. Dodge explains that he has no friends because when one chooses friends, the choice entails responsibility and accountability. Dodge is a Sunni, the religious faction associated with Saddam Hussein. He speaks fluent English and studies Huckleberry Finn, a book he carries with him everywhere, to better understand American culture. There are several allusions to the story of Huckleberry Finn that reinforce the theme of friendship; i.e. its implied responsibility and accountability.

US INTERPRETER IN IRAQ DENIED AMERICAN GREEN CARD — During his nearly four years as a translator for U.S. forces in Iraq, Saman Kareem Ahmad was known for bravery and hard work. However, like one of Pitre’s main characters, “Dodge”, Ahmad is denied an American green card at the end of the war.

COMPASSION ON THE BATTLEFIED IN IRAQ — COMPASSION ON THE BATTLEFIELD IN IRAQ – It is not exactly clear but Dodge seems to have chosen, by circumstance of war, to support freedom by making friends with a platoon medic that is singularly focused on saving lives.

Dodge’s father led the Agricultural Ministry of Saddam Hussein. His father became a leader of the resistance to America’s invasion of Iraq. Dodge loves his father but chooses to stay at an Iraqi university rather than follow him into the resistance. It is not exactly clear but Dodge seems to have chosen, by circumstance of war, to support freedom by making friends with a platoon medic that is singularly focused on saving lives.

drug use in war — When a platoon soldier is ambushed, Dodge’s medic-friend is restrained by Lieutenant Donovan because he believes the soldier is dead. After the incident, the medic turns to drug addiction to escape the reality of his friend’s death.

When a platoon soldier is ambushed, Dodge’s medic-friend is restrained by Lieutenant Donovan because he believes the soldier is dead. After the incident, the medic turns to drug addiction to escape the reality of his friend’s death. The medic is brought up on charges when the Lieutenant reports him for suspected drug use. He receives a general discharge which affects his future civilian life. The Lieutenant chooses not to be the medic’s friend in that arrest incident but meets the medic after the war with a different perspective; maybe not as friends, but as fellow human beings intimately affected by war.

ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI (2ND PRESIDENT OF TUNESIA SENTENCED FOR MONEY LAUNDERING AND DRUG TRAFFICING) — ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI (2ND PRESIDENT OF TUNISIA SENTENCED FOR MONEY LAUNDERING AND DRUG TRAFFICKING) Later in Pitre’s story, a reader listener finds Dodge chooses to become a part of a resistance to the repressive regime of Ben Ali in Tunisia.

Later in the story, a reader listener finds Dodge chooses to become a part of a resistance to the repressive regime of Ben Ali in Tunisia. Dodge becomes friends with the resistance movement that needs his English-speaking voice to tell the world of Ben Ali’s repression. Dodge is not a Tunisian but recognizes the human drive to resist oppression, and the need to be part of something greater than oneself. Dodge chooses to be a friend of the oppressed.

Michael Pitre compels a listener to look at mistakes made by America in Iraq. It may have been morally right to remove Saddam Hussein. However, the decision to deny participation by Hussein’s army officers and Hussein’ administrative personnel in government transition was an error of epic consequence.

Vetted Hussein army officers and administrative personnel, with monitored performance measures, might have avoided Iraq’s spiral into chaos. One considers the value of interpreters like Dodge who are from families that worked in the corrupt Hussein administration. Dodge appears to have an inner moral compass that could have helped America in its intent to provide a pacific transition from totalitarianism to peace in Iraq.

There are good and bad people in every government. Undoubtedly, there were some Iraqi Army leaders and Hussein administrators that could have become friends rather than enemies of fellow Iraqis and American’ invaders. If America’s leaders had been more discriminating and understanding, ISIL may have never risen. The simple part of any war is having friends and enemies; the hard part is in knowing the difference.

Post script: Now America is leaving Afghanistan. One hopes those Afghani’s that served NATO and America’s involvement in Afghanistan will not be treated as forgotten friends. Since Vietnam, one doubts history will either justify or vindicate American military intervention in other countries.

OTHER gods

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Attention Merchants

By Tim Wu

Narrated by Marc Cashman

TIM WU (AUTHOR, PROFESSOR OF LAW AT COLUMBIA )

Not since “The Powers That Be” (published in 1979) has there been a better history of the media industry. Tim Wu is heir to David Halberstam. First there were newspapers, then radio, then television, and now the world-wide web. Wu offers a modern vision of media’s impact on society in “The Attention Merchants”.

Gone are many of the famed “…Attention Merchants” like Bill Bernbach, Neil French, and David Ogilvy. They were the early influencers; i.e. the copy writers, and agents that created consumer advertising for Sulzberger, Chandler, Hutchins, Paley, and Luce. They worked for founders of some of the most influential newspaper, radio, television and magazine outlets of the 19^th and 20^th centuries. They were the “gods” of a newly formed consumer society. Consumers read, watched, and listened to pitches for everything from votes to vitamins to the latest model Cadillac. Wu shows pitches remain the same, but methods have changed.

DAVID HALBERSTAM'S SEMINAL WORK ON THE MEDIA INDUSTRY (PUBLISHED 1979) — DAVID HALBERSTAM’S SEMINAL WORK ON THE MEDIA INDUSTRY (PUBLISHED 1979) Gone are many of the famed “…Attention Merchants” like Bill Bernbach, Neil French, and David Ogilvy. They were the “gods” of a newly formed consumer society. Consumers read, watched, and listened to pitches for everything from votes to vitamins to the latest model Cadillac.

Today’s social, political, and economic consumers are recorded, manipulated, spindled, and controlled by “other gods”. Modern “…Attention Merchants” are internet entrepreneurs like Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Google’s Larry Page & Sergey Brin, Microsoft’s Bill Gates & today’s CEO Satya Nadella, Apple’s (now deceased) CEO, Steve Jobs & today’s CEO Tim Cook, Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, and Netflix’s Reed Hastings. Television, newspapers, radio, and magazines still capture our attention but not like past “…Attention Merchants”. Old media are still with us, but computer screens and mobile phones have joined the mix. Wu shows how the public’s decisions have become less volitional, more manipulated, and addictive as www. sites came into being and technology matured.

Old media is still with us, but computer screens and mobile phones have joined the mix. Wu shows how the public’s decisions have become less volitional, more manipulated, and addictive when www. came into being and technology matured.

MARLBORO MAN — Neither smoking or “free” access to information is without harm or cost. The Marlborough man is dead, and “free” internet information is not free.

Wu recounts how advertising became a critical part of early media’s power, influence, and profit. Just as advertisers promoted false benefits of smoking in the 20^th, internet advertisers promote false benefits of free access to information and entertainment in the 21st century. Neither smoking or “free” access to information is without harm or cost. The Marlborough man is dead, and “free” internet information is not free. “Fake news” has always been in the “…Attention Merchant’s” tool box but Wu shows that a new dimension is created with the rise of “free” information technology.

The internet not only informs the public, i.e., it distracts society, distorts facts, and reveals intimate details of personal lives. Internet users become products, rather than just consumers. Information gathered on consumers is provided to government and sold to private enterprise.

More ominous than media distortion by capitalist manipulators is government-controlled media that distorts truth to justify the Ukraine war.
ukraine bombing

Personal information is used by governments, and private sector businesses to achieve their own purposes. Power and control become centered on organizations rather than individuals. Data mining is a new industry. Decisions are less determined by personal being and private belief. Today, decisions are shaped by a society “under the influence” of government, and private sector’s “…Attention Merchants”.

data mining — Personal information is used by governments, and private sector businesses to achieve their own purposes. Power and control become centered on organizations rather than individuals. Data mining is a new industry.

facebook — In this Facebook age, there are few secrets about what one likes and what one is willing to pay for product.

Wu notes how today’s “…Attention Merchants” are different. Advertisers have always tried to influence individuals. Advertisers have always told lies or distorted truth to get buyers to buy and believe. Wu explains the difference. Now personal information is acquired with confused consent by users of the internet. In this Facebook age, there are few secrets about what one likes and what one is willing to pay for product.

Customers are no longer just consumers. Wu notes customers have become products. Customers are sold to the highest bidder without customer awareness or compensation. Today’s “…Attention Merchants” argue that sales pitches are customized to what the customer wants. Businesses rationalize access as the customer’s compensation. Government rationalizes access as a way of staying in touch and understanding the public. Wu implies both arguments are willful misrepresentations.

consumer's mind — Consumers have less control over their decisions because “…Attention Merchants” use intimate personal information to seduce conscious and unconscious motivation.

There is a cost to voters and consumers because personal information is being sold without pay for product that enriches “…Attention Merchants”, private enterprise, and government. The product delivered is the personal information that reveals who we are, what we think, what we desire, and what we are willing to pay. Consumers have less control over their decisions because “…Attention Merchants” use intimate personal information to seduce conscious and unconscious motivation.

The sinister aspect of Wu’s explanation is that “…Attention Merchants” now have tools that exaggerate the impact of “fake news”. By knowing intimate beliefs of consumers, “…Attention Merchants” are able to create algorithms that funnel “fake news” that feeds what consumer’s may either accurately or inaccurately believe. Prejudices and discrimination are reinforced. The worst characteristics of political populism are reinforced. “The Attention Merchants” expand control of individual thought so that the course of democratic elections, government policies, or business successes can be unduly influenced by false or misleading information.

wikipedia — The positive aspect of the internet is shown by sites created without advertising input; e.g. Wikipedia and some blogosphere creations abjure advertising as a source of compensation.

Wu notes there are glimmers of hope with a growing recognition of the impact of the internet. The internet broadens human understanding of the world. The positive aspect of the internet is shown by sites created without advertising input; e.g. Wikipedia and some blogosphere creations abjure advertising as a source of compensation.

Exposure of blind spots in acquisition of personal data are currently being exposed in congressional hearings with Facebook CEO, Mark Zuckerberg. At the same time, Russian interference in American elections is being more seriously investigated.

As Marie Currie is to have said— “Nothing in life is to be feared. It is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.” Of course, one might remember, she died from the radiation she received from her discoveries. (Ironically, Marie Currie’s death was found not to be from radiation exposure. In autopsy, her body radiation levels were within normal range.)

A CLASSIC’S TRUTH

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Road to Serfdom

By Friedrich A. Hayek

Narrated by William Hughes

Hayek wrote “The Road to Serfdom” during WWII. His observation was that Nazi Germany and its rise to power had a direct relationship with the growth of socialism, a belief that central planning and control are keys to national prosperity.

Hayek suggests that America and Great Britain suffer a similar strain of belief. He argues that central planning and control leads to totalitarianism. “The Road to Serfdom” is a prescient vision of the dangers of socialism.

The dilemma of government is in drawing the line between central planning and public service. It is particularly complicated by what the intent of Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution meant when it said a part of the purpose of government is to “promote the general welfare”

It seems common that authors of popular, sometimes classic, books are often interpreted by people who have not read them. Authors like Harriet Beecher Stowe, Richard Wright, Ayn Rand, Vladimir Nabokov, and Friedrich Hayek are frequently commented on but content often becomes a surprise to actual readers.

Friedrich Hayek’s book is frequently lauded by American conservatives and vilified by American liberals.

In truth, Hayek is a seer for both ignorant American’ conservatives and liberals; i.e. Hayek is neither a spokesman for modern American conservatism or liberalism but a strong proponent of classic liberalism.

To be clear, today’s conservatism and liberalism are not defined in the same way Hayek defines them in his 1944 publication. Liberalism in 1944 meant belief in freedom of choice and endorsement of laissez-faire economic principles. 1944 conservatism meant a rejection of the principles of equality with an aristocratic, “rank has privileges”, ideology.

Contrary to Hayek’s conservatism, modern conservatives and liberals endorse subsidization of private enterprise. Subsidization comes from tariffs, tax incentives, and other preferential treatment for private business and industry.

Principles of equality and laissez-fair economic principles are less doctrinaire in the 21^st century because American political parties blur the difference. Modern liberals are closely associated with government regulation and intervention but not necessarily laissez-faire principles.

Modern conservatives are opposed to government in most forms of regulation and intervention, but only in principle; not in practice. Modern conservatives, as well as liberals, endorse subsidization of private enterprise. Subsidization comes from tariffs, tax incentives, and other preferential treatment for private business and industry.

Contrary to a wide perception that John Maynard Keynes (a liberal economist in today’s parlance) denigrated “The Road to Serfdom”; Keynes, in fact, praised it. John Maynard Keynes believed in government intervention when a state’s economy is in crisis.

According to Thomas Hazlett in the July 1992 issue of “Reason Magazine”, Keynes wrote “In my opinion it (Road to Serfdom) is a grand book…Morally and philosophically I find myself in agreement with virtually the whole of it; and not only in agreement with it, but in deeply moved agreement”.

Though Keynes praised “The Road to Serfdom”, he did not think Hayek’s economic’ liberalism practical; i.e. Keynes infers that Hayek could not practically draw a line between a safety net for the poor, uninsured-sick, and unemployed (which Hayek endorsed) while denying government intervention in a competitive, laissez-faire economy.

When businesses have an unfair advantage that denies competition, Hayek suggests government regulation is required.

Where modern conservatives get “The Road to Serfdom” wrong is where Hayek writes that government has an important role in a nation’s economy that goes beyond a simplistic notion of laissez-faire.

Where modern liberals misunderstand “The Road to Serfdom” is where Hayek explains that freedom of choice is essential within the bounds of safe pursuit of economic success. When human safety issues from uncontrolled industrial pollution threatens the safety of society (which most modern scientific opinion calls global warming) Hayek writes government intervention is necessary.

After listening to “The Road to Serfdom”, one cannot help but believe that Hayek would be as appalled by “private” industry’s greed in the 21^st century.

Hayek wrote that big business is not bad in itself but big business that fails to compete on a level playing field because of government subsidy, through tax concession and special treatment, should be regulated by government to ensure fair play.

In the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Trump denies the reality of global warming.

One is compelled to agree with Hayek when he observes that government programs interfere with free choice when government officials create social programs they think are good for someone else. Hayek is not saying that government should not care for the poor, work-disabled, or technologically unemployed. He writes: “Where, as in the case of sickness and accident, neither the desire to avoid such calamities nor the efforts to overcome their consequences are as a rule weakened by the provision of assistance – where, in short, we deal with genuinely insurable risks – the case for the state’s helping to organize a comprehensive system of social insurance is very strong.”

Hayek goes on to suggest that technological change that causes unemployment warrants government assistance. The danger Hayek tries to make clear is that government interferes with free choice when social programs try to create false equalities.

BREAD LINES IN NEW YORK 1933–Hayek is not saying that government should not care for the poor, work-disabled, or technologically unemployed.

Hayek writes: “Where, as in the case of sickness and accident, neither the desire to avoid such calamities nor the efforts to overcome their consequences are as a rule weakened by the provision of assistance – where, in short, we deal with genuinely insurable risks – the case for the state’s helping to organize a comprehensive system of social insurance is very strong.”

Hayek is acknowledging a role for government. The role is to regulate private enterprise in those areas where freedom of choice or equal opportunity is infringed upon.

HEALTH INSURANCE — If insurance is not available to all in a land of prosperity, then government has a role in creating a program that will offer insurance to all.

Hayek’s only caveat is that the insurance be offered as an affordable, free enterprise, and individual choice, not as an entitlement.

Hayek opposes government programs that interfere with free competition among similar businesses.

The weakness of Hayek’s argument is in idealization of humanity; i.e. human nature is that leaders in government and the private sector will drive for advantage. In the case of one country, that advantage may theoretically be mitigated by impartial government regulation but, in a world of sovereign nations, power is inherently limited.

If China wants to subsidize steel exports, American options are limited to creating import tariffs that further distort market competition. This is the mistaken route that President Trump has taken. Further, Hayek’s idealization presumes that politicians cannot be bribed, human beings are not prejudiced, populations have an equal opportunity to succeed, and humanity is inhumanly perfect when left in a state of grace.

Hayek correctly points out the importance of money as a measure of success in a free society. However, in today’s America, “Moneyocracy” has become an American form of government. “Moneyocracy” is the aristocracy of the 21^st century that elects public officials, denies equality of opportunity—for education, economic mobility, and employment.

The gap between the rich and poor is widening by degrees that may bankrupt America because of an enlarging safety net for the old, the sick, the unemployed, and the unemployable.

The field of competition for free enterprise is becoming more unequal. Hayek observes that government intervention slips into socialism when free enterprise is artificially manipulated. The fear is that America will begin looking for their Hitler to manage a sick economy.

Conservatives that rant against government regulation based on Hayek’s “Road to Serfdom” are as incorrect as liberals that argue Hayek wrote against social government programs for the poor, disabled, and unemployed.

DECRIMINALIZATION

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Flowers in the Blood: The Story of Opium

By: Jeff Goldberg, Dean Latimer, William Burroughs (Introduction

Narrated by Stephen McLaughlin

JEFF GOLDBERG (AMERICAN JOURNALIST, STAFF WRITER FOR THE ATLANTIC) — JEFF GOLDBERG (AMERICAN JOURNALIST, STAFF WRITER FOR THE ATLANTIC, & POLITICAL PUNDIT)

Published in 1981, “Flowers in the Blood” argues for decriminalization of opiates. The idea remains controversial in 2018, and 2022. Written by Jeff Goldberg and Dean Latimer, a listener feels misdirected by historical information.

DEAN LATIMER (WRITER FOR THE EVO, AKA EAST VILLAGE OTHER-WENT ON TO EDIT HIGH TIMES)

The feeling of misdirection is reinforced by a languid, seemingly opiated, performance of the narrator, Stephen McLaughlin. It is not that one is seduced by Goldberg and Latimer’s writing, but a listener feels cornered in a room of opium eaters. Goldberg and Latimer reveal how opium is extracted from a flower to offer a tranquil escape from life’s stresses, with a tantalizing peek at world clarity. Opiate extraction seems simple; the consequence of use, not.

OPIUM POPPY — Goldberg and Latimer reveal how opium is extracted from a flower to offer a tranquil escape from life’s stresses, with a tantalizing peek at world clarity. Opiate extraction seems simple; the consequence of use, not.

brave new world — Goldberg and Latimer argue that opiates enhance natural neurotransmitters, like endorphins, to reduce stress and depression caused by living life. This argument reminds one of a “Brave New World” where every stress in life is characterized as negative.

Goldberg and Latimer argue that opiates enhance natural neurotransmitters, like endorphins, to reduce stress and depression caused by living life. This argument reminds one of a “Brave New World” where every stress in life is characterized as negative.

Goldberg and Latimer note that refinement of opium into morphine and heroin increases its addictive power. They extol the pleasure of opiates while cataloging its history of addiction. Goldberg and Latimer reflect on opium’s effect in altering cerebral states of being. Their argument seems counter intuitive.

They note its use by artists ranging from Charles Dickens to Elizabeth Barrett Browning. They infer opiates enhance artist’s abilities. They realistically identify opiates’ medical benefit, while exposing its potential for addiction. Goldberg and Latimer suggest opiates enhance artistic sensibility, and temper sociopathic homicidal acts. They begin an argument for legalizing opiates.

OPIATE LEGALIZATION — Goldberg and Latimer extol the pleasure of opiates while cataloging its history of addiction. Their argument is counter intuitive. They begin a defense for legalizing opiates.

Goldberg and Latimer argue that there are three options. One, continue jailing narcotic purveyors and users. Two, legalize opiates and let the free market determine use. Three, decriminalize opiates and offer treatment to those who become addicted.

Their argument is for number three; they suggest number one (the American standard) is ineffective, and number two would be a disaster in the making. Goldberg and Latimer argue that America should legalize and regulate opiates and treat those who become addicted.

DRUG TREATMENT AND COUNCILING — America regulates alcohol and tobacco, both proven addictions. Alcohol and tobacco are regulated by the market, with education on their harmful effects and government taxation to increase prices that affects consumption. Goldberg and Latimer argue that America should legalize and regulate opiates and treat those who become addicted.

America regulates alcohol and tobacco, both proven addictions. Alcohol and tobacco are regulated by the market, with education on their harmful effects and government taxation to increase prices that affects consumption. These regulations have had some success, but people still have the right to drink and smoke to excess.

The option of opiate legalization is troubling because it infers substituting inner-direction of human beings for other-direction by government. It increases the potential of a “Brave New World” where human choice is no longer individual but collective.

DRUG USERS — Goldberg and Latimer point out that punishing the addicted with prison is a mistake. Those who succumb to addiction need help; not punishment.

Goldberg and Latimer point out that punishing the addicted with prison is a mistake. Those who succumb to addiction need help; not punishment. One can readily accept that argument but opiate regulation by the government is a step too far. This may be a distinction without a difference but Alcohol and cigarettes are still a private sector choice with government intervention (principally tax increases and education) based on political input.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN (1967-2014) — The loss of Seymour Hoffman in February 2014 was a tragic loss. Hoffman dies at the age of 46, John Belushi at 33, Kurt Cobain at 27, Billie Holiday at 44, River Phoenix at 23; all from opiate overdoses. If opiates were legalized, would these artists have been saved—who knows?

The loss of Seymour Hoffman in February 2014 comes to mind. Hoffman dies at the age of 46, John Belushi at 33, Kurt Cobain at 27, Billie Holiday at 44, River Phoenix at 23; all from opiate overdoses. If opiates were legalized, would these artists have been saved—who knows? They chose addiction to escape the insecurity and stress of life. Their choice is their choice. Insecurity and stress are facts in every human’s life. America’s failure is related to treatment, not government control of human choice.

WAR ON DRUGS — With treatment programs, the government will make the objective of addicting users a waste of manufacturer’s and seller’s time. It may not eliminate illegal drug activity but it will make it less financially viable.

America needs to continue their fight against illegal opiate manufacturers and sellers. Threat of punishment is not the key but reduction in profitability will drive illegal manufactures out of the market. With treatment programs, the government will make the objective of addicting users a waste of manufacturer’s and seller’s time. It may not eliminate illegal drug activity but it will make it less financially viable. Addiction treatment programs and substance abuse’ education are legitimate roles for state governments. Opiates should be subject to the same laws that presently govern drug research and development.

Unfortunately, “Flowers in the Blood” fails to nuance legalization of opiates. It leans more toward influencing uneducated poor, educated middle class, and idle rich to experiment with addictive drugs. Goldman and Latimer are on the right track with regulation and treatment of addiction, but their book encourages drug experimentation in a culture that needs no encouragement. Stress is a part of life and being drugged into obliviousness diminishes humanity.

UNWINDING EXTREMES

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Unwinding: An Inner History of the New America

By George Packer

Narrated by Robert Fass

GEORGE PACKER (AUTHOR) George Parker drives a stake into America’s heart in “The Unwinding”.

George Parker drives a stake into America’s heart in “The Unwinding”. One listening to “The Unwinding” comes away in anger, fear, and frustration—whether a Republican, Democrat, Tea Partyer, or Libertarian.

Whether a believer in unfettered free enterprise or limited government, Packer offers stories that show America is a troubled land of opportunity. It has become a land of greed; not of the free but of the shackled—a risk noted by Thomas Hobbes in the “Leviathan”.

America is changing Presidents in 2021. Will anything change? Joe Biden represents a history of government organization and regulation. Donald Trump represents destruction of government organization and regulation. It seems a choice between compromise and anarchy.

The shackles come from society’s failure to protect individuals from the tyranny of special interests. One side argues–free enterprise is shackled by too much government; the other side argues–not enough government protects the general public.

America’s initial response to the coronaviris illustrates how far America has fallen. “Dollars and cents” government supplanted “common sense” government in President Trump’s initial preparation for the covid 19 pandemic.

Parker’s stories of people with great wealth, like Sam Walton, or poverty, like Tammy Thomas, or escape from poverty, like Jay-Z and Oprah Winfrey, or invention, like Peter Thiel, Max Levchin, and Elon Musk, or political success, like Colin Powell and Barack Obama, or entrepreneurial ambition, like Dean Price, or political ambition like Jeff Connaguhton–all seem failures, either in morals or self-fulfillment.

ENTREPRENEUR, START-UP MAVEN FOR ELECTRIC CARS AND SPACE CRAFTS

PETER THIEL (COFOUNDED PAYPAL WITH MAX LEVCHIN) — ENTREPRENEUR, START-UP MAVEN FOR ELECTRIC CARS AND SPACE CRAFTS

Sam Walton becomes one of the wealthiest people in the world by creating a marketing behemoth that offers low consumer prices but drives small business entrepreneurs out of business. Walton offers great prices by buying in bulk and selling in volume with lower margins, partly produced by low wage workers. On the one hand it is a bargain for the consumer; on the other hand it destroys competition and reduces family incomes.

AMERICAN MANUFACTURING JOBS (Many lose their jobs when companies are purchased by conglomerates that dismantle the business, out-source product development, and reduce employment by offering buyouts to higher paid long-term employees–all to provide profits to investors.)

Tammy Thomas, born and raised in Youngstown, Ohio, worked in one industry for the majority of her life. She lost her job when the company she worked for was purchased by a conglomerate that dismantled the business, out-sourced product development, and reduced employment by offering buyouts to higher paid long-term employees–all to provide profits to conglomerate’ investors.

JAY-Z (BUSINESS MOGUL, ENTERTAINER)

Jay-Z and Oprah Winfrey overcame poverty and the degradation of living in squalid slums by capitalizing on their unique abilities and life stories, stories that reflect on the huge disparity between rich and poor. Born into poverty; they unquestionably achieved success for themselves, but left behind a population with poorer and poorer prospects of escape.

OPRAH WINFREY (AMERICAN MEDIA MOGUL)

Peter Thiel and Max Levchin capitalize on the tech boom. Peter Thiel becomes a billionaire through entrepreneurial skill. However, the consequence of market collapse from financial derivatives affects even Thiel’s wealth. Thiel remains in the privileged 1% but Parker infers Thiel turns his attention to dismantling American government with greater reliance on free enterprise.

Senator Jeff Connaughton experiences both sides of America’s schizophrenia. Connaughton began as a political operative, left government to become a millionaire lobbyist, and returned to government when the derivative crises reduced his net worth.

(US SENATOR, FORMER LOBBYIST, FORMER WHITE HOUSE LAWYER, AND SENATE AIDE FOR JOE BIDEN BEFORE 2009)

Connaughton’s reaction to the financial crisis differs from Theil’s, in part because of the monumental wealth difference, but also because of their different journeys to wealth. They equally revile the influence of money in government but Connaughton believes government regulation can be effective while Theil, a Libertarian, believes government regulation is the bane of democratic society.

Parker tells the story of Dean Price. Price, a young Republican turned Libertarian (though he voted for Obama) believes America is the land of opportunity. He struggles, works hard, achieves success, fails, starts over, seems on the road to recovery, and fails again. Price buys into the American Dream by reading Napoleon Hill’s book “Think and Grow Rich”. He believes–if he can dream it, it can happen.

DEAN PRICE (HALF OWNER OF RED BIRCH ENERGY)

Life choices get into Price’s way. His financial problems mount to the point of losing his ownership interest in Red Birch Energy. Price files for bankruptcy and is faced with starting over.

Price experiences rising gasoline prices and buys into the bio fuel movement of the 21^st century. He starts a company called Red Birch Energy after selling a small fast food chain that he began from nothing. As a part of his original start-up, Price built a fuel discount truck stop on his family farm with one of his restaurants as an anchor. He takes on partners for engineering and additional financing for bio fuel equipment and farmed canola grain for the production of bio fuel. With rising oil prices, turmoil in the Middle East, and Obama’s election, it appears Price is on the road to great success.

Price takes advantage of his partners by not fully explaining his conflicts of interest in using bio fuels in his own truck stop to stave off collapse of his personal business. His financial problems mount to the point of losing his ownership interest in Red Birch Energy. Price files for bankruptcy and is faced with starting over.

COLIN POWELL (AMERICAN STATESMAN-RETIRED FOUR-STAR GENERAL) Powell became the poster child of black Republicans, only to have his reputation destroyed by endorsement of false reports about WMD that compelled the United States to invade Iraq.

Obama’s reputation for change appears a lie as much as a truth. Government decisions to let bank’ decision-makers escape prosecution galls every American damaged by the financial crises of 2007-2008. Obama’s unwinding of the financial crises ultimately succeeded but greed remains an alloyed characteristic of American democracy.

President Barack Obama (2009-2017)

Price brings his stories together in the “tea party” and “occupy wall street” movements. The growing distrust of government and burgeoning anti-government beliefs raises hackles and stokes fires of two political extremes. The “tea party” movement wants less government regulation. The “occupy wall street” demonstrators infer they want more government regulation. The extremes are exhibited as Libertarian on one side and Marxist on the other.

Libertarians like Theil want to minimize government intervention in the private sector, including government control of education. “Occupy wall street” followers want government intervention, subsidization of education, and universal health coverage to equalize opportunity for lower and middle class Americans.

“Tea party” followers want less government while “occupy wall street” factions what more effective and protective government.

American democracy is the politics of extremes with each extreme using whatever means necessary to deny success of prudent legislation. The consequence is a “do-nothing” congress and an ineffectual President.

The unwinding of the financial crises in the dot-com bubble of 2000-2001 and the 2007-08 subprime mortgage crises unfolds in the many stories told by Packer in this disturbing narrative. (America’s early response to the coronavirus is similarly disturbing.)

Rand Paul (Kentucky Senator)

A professed Libertarian delays emergency funds to fight the Covid-19 pandemic by demanding an amendment. The amendment is widely understood to be be voted down, but will delay approval.

America is a nation of extremes with each extreme using whatever means necessary to thwart or delay prudent action. The initial consequence of these extremes is a “do-nothing” congress and an ineffectual President.

One is left with fear, anger, and frustration after completing “The Unwinding”. The only consolation is in America’s history of (somehow) overcoming crises. America has been in crises before–in 1776, 1789, 1865, 1929, 1941, 1951, 1967-68, 2001, and 2008. We will survive the 2020 pandemic.

SOVEREIGNTY

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution

Written by: Francis Fukuyama

Narrated by: Jonathan Davis

FRANCIS FUKUYAMA (AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST, POLITCAL ECONOMIST, AND AUTHOR) — FRANCIS FUKUYAMA (AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST, POLITICAL ECONOMIST, AND AUTHOR)

Francis Fukuyama’s analysis of state and government formation is both insightful and politically actionable. In “The Origins of Political Order” and “Political Order and Political Decay” Fukuyama provides a basis for understanding politics and its contribution to society.

THOMAS HOBBES (1588-1679) Hobbes generally considered humankind to be both good and evil with a need for regulation of his/her evil instincts through government.

In previous book reviews, references have been made to Thomas Hobbes’ theory of the nature of man. Hobbes generally considered humankind to be both good and evil with a need for regulation of his/her evil instincts through government. He identifies government as “The Leviathan”. Hobbes suggests “The condition of man…is a condition of war of everyone against everyone”.

PREHISTORIC HUMAN KIND — Fukuyama finds a singular and significant flaw in Hobbes’ observation. From the beginning of time, humans associated with other humans to survive the brutish nature of life. He suggests humans are by nature violent with that violence becoming ingrained as a societal meme to cope with the exigencies of life. Fukuyama goes on to suggest violence and change are intertwined.

Fukuyama finds a singular and significant flaw in Hobbes’ observation. Though Fukuyama may agree with Hobbes’ view of individual humans, he tempers it by noting humans have always been social beings. From the beginning of time, humans associated with other humans to survive the brutish nature of life. He suggests humans are by nature violent with that violence becoming ingrained as a societal meme to cope with the exigencies of life. Fukuyama goes on to suggest violence and change are intertwined.

The significance of humans as societal creatures is that governments are formed by dominant tribes. Politics is the language of tribes negotiating with each other to preserve status. However, Fukuyama notes that cultural norms are dramatically different in governments that evolve over time. These cultural differences play out in the history of Russia, China, France, Great Britain, Italy, America, the countries of Africa, and the Middle East.

world map — Fukuyama notes cultural differences play out in the history of Russia, China, France, Great Britain, Italy, America, the countries of Africa, and the Middle East.

RELIGIOUS BELIEF — A counter-intuitive note by Fukuyama is that religion plays a significant role in civilizing, rationalizing, and establishing state governments.

A counter-intuitive note by Fukuyama is that religion plays a significant role in civilizing, rationalizing, and establishing state governments. It is counter-intuitive because it seems in the present-day religion is tearing the world apart. However, in the context of history, the size of tribes within countries hugely increases with the spread of religion. Religion becomes a cultural phenomenon that ameliorates (but does not eliminate) violence among different tribes within wider territories that evolve into nation-states.

Fukuyama implies nation-state development is a living organism that evolves in the manner of natural selection identified by Darwin in the “Origin of Species”. Characteristics of effective governments perpetuate themselves through adaptation to respective societal norms. In other words, every society grows via its own cultural norms which suggests sovereignty should be inviolable.

Fukuyama is saying that American democracy, Chinese socialism, Russian federation, India democracy or any other system of government will be different because of their social history. In other words, India may be classified as the world’s largest democracy but not as an American democracy because of its different societal norms.

WORLD WIDE WEB — Can the World Wide Web, the growth of science, and recognition of environmental interdependence overcome the nationalist stupidity of government leaders?

In one sense, the complexity of Fukuyama’s theory makes one less optimistic about the future of the world. What can take the place of religion to meld societies into a common tribe? Can the World Wide Web, the growth of science, and recognition of environmental interdependence overcome the nationalist stupidity of government leaders?

If Trump, Putin, al-Baghdadi, and Kim Jong-un represent the future, the answer is no. On the other hand, one may argue survival of humans is dependent on experimentation by governments, enhanced by nation-state societal differences.

Just as one species evolves into an improved human, one species of government may evolve into an improved government (presuming humans survive an interregnum).

POLITICAL LOSERS/WINNERS

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

On the Brink
By Henry M. Paulson, Jr.

Narrated by Dan Woren

HENRY PAULSON (U.S. SEC. OF THE TREASURY 2006-2009)

Crisis reveals human strength and weakness. Perception is not reality, but Henry Paulson, the former Treasurer of the United States, names names and paints pictures of (mostly) men in the 2007/2008 financial crisis. In his analysis, there are political losers and winners.

How will America’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic be recalled?

This close political race will have a winner and loser. With such a close political race, the loser will be America. Divisiveness and ideological difference will remain a major obstacle in formulating foreign and domestic policy. Covid 19 will run its course. The concern is in not having a pragmatic or politically articulate President who can lead America over the next four years.

GEORGE WALKER BUSH (43RD PRES. OF THE UNITED STATES) Paulson characterizes Bush as a pragmatist who acts on recommendations from people he trusts.

Paulson reveals himself as a Christian Scientist, a pragmatist, and enigmatically, a somewhat left-of-center, presumably Republican, liberal. Paulson suggests a Republican left-of-center lean when writing about his mother and wife’s reluctance for him to take the Department of the Treasury position in the Bush administration. (Paulson’s mother strongly supported Hillary Clinton for President.)

Interestingly, Paulson characterizes George Bush as an equally pragmatic, non-ideological decision maker. Differences between the two are in the details; i.e. Paulson analyzes his own and other experts’ details and presents informed alternatives and recommendations while Bush acts on recommendations from people he trusts.

BEN BERNANKE (CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE 2006-2014) Paulson characterizes Ben Bernanke as a brilliant financial advisor, participant, and ally in supporting and executing complex rescue plans for a financial system nearing default.

TIMOTHY GEITHNER (U.S. SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY 2009-2013) Tim Geitner is shown as a team player that bridges the divide between political and administrative decision-making when plans are formed to rescue Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, and AIG.

Rahm Emanuel is described as an effective political organization man who is able to get things done in a highly political environment.

Jaimie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan Chase.)

Dimon is characterized as a rationale business man who is willing to take a risk for the benefit of more than his own aggrandizement.

John Thain seems a competent manager in crisis that makes the best of a terrible situation by moving rapidly to sell Merrill Lynch to B of A before total collapse.

SARAH PALIN (FORMER V.P. NOMINEE, FORMER GOVERNOR OF ALASKA)

Some crisis profiles shown by Paulson are less complementary. Sarah Palin comes across as a decision maker driven by politics rather than pragmatic results.

John McCain (1936-2018, Former U.S. Senator for Arizona.)

John McCain seems to gravitate to Palin’s perception of reality by political posturing for election results rather than pragmatic solutions for the financial crisis. Jim Bunning, the former baseball player and House of Representative’s Republican, is shown to be an ideologically driven populist extremist.

RICHARD FULD (FORMER CEO LEHMAN BROTHERS)

Richard Fuld seems arrogantly delusional about Lehman Brothers’ assets and an ineffective manager in crises.

Ken Lewis (Former CEO of Bank of America)

Lewis appears Machiavellian in grabbing what he thinks are the best and rejecting what he thinks are the worst financial risks in America’s near economic collapse.

Paulson reinforces perceptions of Barack Obama as a smart guy that grasps the big picture; ditto for Barney Frank, and Lindsey Graham but less so for Christopher Dodd.

Paulson reinforces perceptions of Barack Obama as a smart guy that grasps the big picture; ditto for Barney Frank, and Lindsey Graham but less so for Christopher Dodd.

Paulson suggests that Republican Senator Shelby can drive his point and take control when pushed to act but ideological belief seems to constrain proactive action in the financial crises. Senator Reid is shown to be a consummate, seasoned political manager in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi an equally dynamic oldster in the House of Representatives.

JOHN BOEHNER (FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE) Paulson suggests Boehner is unable to lead his Republican constituency and seems awkwardly suited for either a minority or majority Speaker of the House position.

In contrast, Representative Boehner is unable to lead his Republican constituency and seems awkwardly suited for either a minority or majority Speaker of the House position.

It seems today the decisions made by Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, Geitner, and Congress were correct. After listening to Paulson’s book, one appreciates these civil servants hard work in doing the right thing. Today is too soon to tell but Paulson gives outsiders a fascinating glimpse of people making a difference when a nation is in crisis.

One wonders who the political losers and winners will be in today’s immigration, world trade, Covid-19 pandemic, and budget deficit crises.

RISE AND FALL

Audio-book Review
By Chet Yarbrough

(Blog:awalkingdelight)
Website: chetyarbrough.blog

Asabiyyah: What Ibn Khaldun, the Islamic Father of Social Science, Can Teach Us About the World Today

Written by: Ed West

Narrated by: P. J. Ochlan

ED WEST (ENGLISH AUTHOR, JOURNALIST, BLOGGER)

IBN KHALDUN (STATUARY SYMBOL OF ISLAMIC HISTORIAN BORN 1332, DIED 1406 AT 73 YEARS OF AGE.)

Ed West offers a brief introduction to the life of an ancient historian. His name is Ibn Khaldun. Khaldun describes the first known evolutionary theory of human origin. West also notes this 14^th century scholar creates the first known socio/political theory of the rise and fall of civilizations.

Khaldun explains life’s origin as a aggregation of chemicals and minerals that create organic life and, in turn, evolve into different species.

West notes that Khaldun suggests humankind evolved from monkeys. This is four centuries before Darwin’s “Origin of Species”.

Ibn Khaldun is considered by some to be the first person to write foundational theories for modern sociology, economics, and demography. West notes that Khaldun explains how nations are formed, maintained, and destroyed by sociological, economic, and demographic forces.

Khaldun offers counsel to the great conqueror, Amir Timur (aka Tammerlane), who plans to resurrect the 13^th century Mongol empire built by Genghis Khan.

TIMUR AKA TAMMERLANE IS COUNCELED BY IBN KHALDUN (1336-1405–(Timur is said to have caused the death of over 17 million people in the effort.)

West suggests that Khaldun explains how Timur and other rulers, from the Roman empire to Genghis Kahn to Timur successfully conquered great areas of the known world. His explanation is “Asabiyyah” (aas-sah-bee-ah), a theory that all successful conquerors establish a social environment that creates solidarity among a group of people sharing understanding, purpose, and achievement.

West explains that Khaldun expands “Asabiyyah” to a theory of civilization’s rise and fall. Humans proliferate based on family affiliations. Religion widens family relationships to create tribes. Tribes become a congregation of different families with common beliefs. Tribes come into conflict and eventual settlements that grow into larger groups based on evolved common beliefs.

At each step of widening common interest, a leader rises from the ranks. With an accretion of social ties, villages, towns, and cities are formed with a leader at its head. As the ties that bind continue to expand, nation-states are formed.

Ibn Khaldun’s explanation is “Asabiyyah”, a theory that all successful conquerors establish a social environment that creates solidarity among a group of people through shared understanding, purpose, and achievement.

West shows that Khaldun goes on to explain how civilizations decline. First, Khaldun notes that sons and daughters of great leaders rarely exceed their parent’s leadership success. Khaldun posits the current social and scientific belief of “reversion to a mean”.

Each subsequent offspring of a great leader comes closer to the average of a civilization’s population. Leadership diminishes in succeeding generations.

Second, Khaldun suggests diminished common beliefs lessen a civilization’s cohesion. Religious differences rise, economic circumstances change, social groups fracture, family ties reassert themselves as ties that are more important than community. The example that Khaldun gives is Rome’s decline as a world power. West suggests the same may be said of the United Kingdom’s decline.

Has the American Dream become a lie few believe in? Are elected officials withdrawing to their families at the expense of nation-state’ leadership?

West’s “Asabiyyah” makes one think of America. Does today’s political conflict reflect diminishment of commonly held nation-state belief? Is the increasing gap between rich and poor destroying the social fabric of America? Is the divisiveness of former President Trump a reflection of a nation in decline?

Is nationalism dead, or are we crossing a threshold where the principals of nation-state need to be expanded to include a wider community? Is the next step reflected by the E.U. or some similar congregation of nation-states?

According to West, Khaldun believes nationalism is critically important for a civilization to remain strong. In the time of Khaldun, there was no vehicle for common beliefs except a leader’s influence over conquered nations.

Today, there is an internet. It seems the human family may once again be expanded. Nation-states may not be prepared for “space-ship-earth” but there may be an interim step.

That interim step was tried during the cold war with the U.S.S.R. It failed. The E.U. is facing challenges today.

Trump’s America is regressing from comity to disparity with emphasis on making itself great again. A leading question today is whether civilizations are competing to be in decline or ascendance?

Of course, leadership is key to any future. Right now, there seem few leaders that can make civilizations grow beyond their borders. Khaldun seems as relevant today as he was in the 4^th and early 5^th centuries.

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