US/CHINA

Books of Interest
 Website: chetyarbrough.blog

The Avoidable War? (The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and China)

By: Kevin Rudd

Narrated By: Kevin Rudd, Rafe Beckley

Kevin Rudd’s title, “The Avoidable War?” is a provocative book, evidenced by its audiobook title’s question mark. The greatest part of Rudd’s book has a neutral and non-committal view that almost makes one put the book down. However, Rudd’s knowledge of the languages of Chinese and English and his many diplomatic contacts with politicians in both cultures entice one to keep listening for a solution to fundamental differences. The last chapters of Rudd’s book are enlightening and have the ring of truth but imply irreconcilable cultures that make a question mark after the title of the book correct but unsatisfying.

Rudd emphasizes China’s military buildup and its intent to expand its sphere of influence in the Pacific theater. Xi’s intention is to expand China’s power and influence. That intent gives one a sense of impending doom. One has to put that feeling aside to get to the last chapters of the book. Rudd explains the vulnerabilities of both America and China may avoid a nuclear war and its cataclysmic consequence but not offer peace.

Rudd explains the history of Xi Jinping’s rise to power and his actions assure his continuation as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and President of the People’s Republic of China. Xi served in the People’s Liberation Army for three years, beginning in 1979. Xi earned a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering in 1979. He pursued a Doctorate in Marxist Theory and Law while working in the government. Xi rose to power in 2012 with his appointment as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. He was elected by the National People’s Congress to the Presidency in 2013.

The picture of Xi that Rudd creates is of a leader who acknowledges the value of economic growth while firmly believing in a classless society that melds the strength of government authoritarianism with the skills of Chinese entrepreneurs. Xi maintains the direction of China’s economic growth by eliminating any political opposition from party members or influential entrepreneurs that get in the way of authoritarian socialist communism. Rudd believes Xi will be in power for many years to come.

History has changed since Rudd wrote his book. In contrast to Xi who will likely be President for many years, America limits the office to two terms. This is particularly relevant to the authoritarian influence of Donald Trump in the next three plus years of his second term. Xi recognizes Trump will be replaced by a different President at the end of his last term in office. There will be negotiation on the tariffs, but Trump’s position is weakened by the limit of his term in office.

As noted by Rudd, the most important issues facing Xi’s administration is the reduction of income for Chinese workers and families. The immense improvements in average incomes of families in China came from its opening to capitalism which created a more socialist form of communism. That capitalist opening increases pressure on Xi to ameliorate Trump’s U.S. tariff policy. Putting aside President Trump’s false reasoning on creating an international tariff war, one hopes Xi’s need to grow the Chinese economy will aid Trump’s negotiation on tariffs.

As is well known, the U.S. is ambivalent about Taiwan with many Americans who say “who cares” about their fate and others who believe every nation should be free to choose their own form of government. Now that China has experienced the value of introducing capitalism to communism, Taiwan would be a valuable addition to the Chinese economy. In the history of Mao’s defeat of Chiang Kai-shek in the Chinese Civil War, Taiwan became an island nation in 1949. The nation of Taiwan was built by refugees from mainland China who chose to become an independent capitalist country that eschews communism.

Taiwan’s growth as a tech giant has made them a capitalist economic success. Xi undoubtedly sees the potential of Taiwan’s economic benefit to China’s faltering economy. One concludes from Rudd’s book that the history of Chiang Kai-shek’s followers and their departure from China irks Xi, both from an historical as well as economic perspective.

What Rudd is driving for is a rational appreciation of what America should do with the growing international power of China. Rudd implies China will become the equal, if not superior, of the American economy. He believes China will return to its former hegemonic influence, like that of its former dynasties. Rudd acknowledges Xi faces the immense task of returning China’s economy to its recent economic success. He implies Xi will succeed by carrying on with his view of how economic success can be returned with prudent authoritarian control of capitalism with the objective of creating a classless society idealized by communism.

The surveillance technology of today allows Xi and future China rulers to influence Chinese culture in ways beyond the theoretical interest of democratic governments. The inference one draws from Rudd’s book is that peaceful co-existence will only come from a recognition and acceptance of the cultural differences between American democratic capitalism and Chinese authoritarian capitalism.